ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[MiamiensisWx]

Why are some people panicking over a single run?

Even if other models shift further north, the system will still pass south of the CONUS into Mexico. 1) It is shallow, and the upcoming low level steering suggests a W or WNW movement of the wave axis into the Mexican coasts. 2) It likely won't develop because of 95L's outflow. There is a good chance that it will not develop as well. We don't even have a well defined LLC.

[RL3AO]

This is the reason why I wish model runs were not available to the public. Things are bad enough around this country with the economy ie. fuel, housing, jobs, etc. [b]IF this were to develop into something and all the news agencys caught wind of the model runs they would create a mass panic. Especially with the gas situation.

The GFDL showed a Cat 4/5 Hurricane Dean making landfall in New Orleans about the same time out (126 hours or so). It got some attention by the media, but the world did not end. A model showing a cat 1 cane near NOLA 5 1/2 days out won't cause the economy to collapse.

Besides, if we didn't have the models to look at, tracking storms would be as interesting.

[category5]

Why are some people panicking over a single run?

It's two runs in a row now and it's not like it is the BAMM, this is the GFDL. By the way, I don't think anyone is panicking...we're just discussing the model runs.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I am not saying it will cause the economy to collapse, but it sure will not make it any better. I know a cat 1 or even 2 would not hurt south LA too bad, but everyone knows the media will make it out to be like it is going to be the end of the world. I can already see the headlines on fox news all weekend... POTENTIAL DISASTER FOR THE GULF. All the while they are showing the model loops of the GFDL.

[canetracker]

This is the reason why I wish model runs were not available to the public. Things are bad enough around this country with the economy ie. fuel, housing, jobs, etc. [b]IF this were to develop into something and all the news agencys caught wind of the model runs they would create a mass panic. Especially with the gas situation.

So we should not be aware because the media might panic? I think anyone with a bit of common sense realizes this is only a model run on a storm that may not even develop. I certainly am not taking it seriously at this time but do like the information.

[RL3AO]

Wake me up when its not an outlier. Right now the most likely track is an open tropical wave into Central America.


And here is the forecast from Dean.

[Brent]

Wake me up when its not an outlier. Right now the most likely track is an open tropical wave into Central America.

Yeah I don't buy the farther north solution AT ALL unless it really gets it's act together soon which I doubt.

[wxman57]

GFDL & Dean of 2007 (below). For quite a few runs (more than below) it forecast a landfall in Louisiana or Texas. Dean was fast-moving (like 94L) but it was a lot stronger, of course. Maybe the models are having a hard time with this fast-moving disturbance.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... _early.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... _early.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... _early.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... _early.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... _early.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... _early.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... _early.png

[PTrackerLA]

Pretty bold statements to make that this will pose no threat to the US as we don't even have a tropical cyclone. These runs are useless unless the storm develops but it's still worth keeping an eye on. GFDL hasn't had the greatest track record the past few years it seems.

[DanKellFla]

I'll wait until tommorow afternoon. By then, it should be defined as a wave or just a storm that will end up over land.

[category5]

GFDL & Dean of 2007 (below). For quite a few runs (more than below) it forecast a landfall in Louisiana or Texas. Dean was fast-moving (like 94L) but it was a lot stronger, of course. Maybe the models are having a hard time with this fast-moving disturbance.

Total different setup from Dean. Not even comparable. GFS shows the ridge being eroded by a strong trough.

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC set of BAM models are with GFDL in the GOM:


WHXX01 KWBC 180029
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0029 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080718 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 0000 080718 1200 080719 0000 080719 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 68.0W 13.9N 70.7W 15.0N 73.6W 16.4N 77.0W
BAMD 13.2N 68.0W 13.4N 70.2W 14.1N 72.4W 15.3N 74.7W
BAMM 13.2N 68.0W 13.9N 70.4W 15.0N 72.8W 16.2N 75.5W
LBAR 13.2N 68.0W 13.8N 71.2W 14.6N 74.7W 15.7N 78.3W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 39KTS 43KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 39KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 0000 080721 0000 080722 0000 080723 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 80.3W 20.3N 86.4W 22.6N 90.5W 25.5N 93.4W
BAMD 16.7N 77.2W 19.3N 82.3W 21.4N 86.8W 23.1N 89.8W
BAMM 17.7N 78.4W 20.7N 83.8W 23.3N 88.0W 25.9N 90.8W
LBAR 16.9N 81.8W 20.0N 87.9W 21.6N 94.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS 66KTS
DSHP 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 68.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 64.2W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 60.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[category5]

Yet another major track shift...this time the less important BAM models jump on the GFDL train.

[canetracker]

[cycloneye]

SHIP 00:00 UTC Forecast: Shear looks not prohibitive thru the period.

Code: Select all

 *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL942008  07/18/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    32    33    36    39    43    48    53    56    58    61    64    66
V (KT) LAND       30    32    33    36    39    43    48    53    56    58    61    64    66
V (KT) LGE mod    30    30    30    30    30    32    34    38    43    48    54    60    65

SHEAR (KTS)       22    22    21    15    10    13    12    14     4    13    12    15    13
SHEAR DIR        333   323   318   316   278   294   290   323   282     2   344   340   305
SST (C)         27.9  27.8  27.7  27.8  28.0  28.3  28.6  28.8  29.1  28.5  28.3  28.7  28.7
POT. INT. (KT)   137   135   134   135   138   143   147   150   155   145   141   147   146
ADJ. POT. INT.   139   133   132   133   137   142   145   146   148   134   128   131   128
200 MB T (C)   -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.9 -53.8
TH_E DEV (C)      10     9     9    10    10     9    11     9    10     8    10    10    11
700-500 MB RH     67    66    65    68    67    64    61    60    67    63    61    62    58
GFS VTEX (KT)     10    10     9     8     8     8     7     7     7  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    16    21    17    24    32    29    31    11     1   -12   -33   -39   -59
200 MB DIV        42    49    40    64    39    32    23     7    16    13    20    18    -2
LAND (KM)        207   182   202   216   302   192    56   307   129    98   188   362   355
LAT (DEG N)     13.2  13.6  13.9  14.5  15.0  16.2  17.7  19.2  20.7  22.0  23.3  24.6  25.9
LONG(DEG W)     68.0  69.2  70.4  71.6  72.8  75.5  78.4  81.2  83.8  86.2  88.0  89.5  90.8
STM SPEED (KT)    15    12    12    13    14    15    15    15    14    12    10     9     8
HEAT CONTENT      55    43    33    34    50    80    21    62    24    51     5    32    22

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18      CX,CY: -17/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  707  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  17.6 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  94.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   2.   6.  11.  17.  21.  25.  28.  30.  31.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -2.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.   7.   8.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       1.   2.   3.   6.  11.  17.  22.  28.  31.  35.  37.  39.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   2.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   3.   6.   9.  13.  19.  23.  26.  28.  31.  34.  36.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008     INVEST 07/18/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  17.9 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  46.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 104.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  73.6 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   9.2 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.1
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  43.0 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    27% is   2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    15% is   1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     8% is   1.7 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008     INVEST 07/18/08  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY   

[Innotech]

what the hell are these models picking up to make them trend so far north? Is the shear forecast to disappear or osmething?

[Smurfwicked]

I certainly haven't followed all the invest but out of the ones that I have I've always leaned more towards the GFDL model runs in being the most accurate. Which was mostly being the storms that could affect the GOM or others that just was expected to potentially become a major hurricane over the last 3 years that I've been into this. However, I try not to rely much on the information from the model runs until further development has taken place, normally becoming TS strength or higher.

From observing for 3 years now GFDL has always seemed to me to adjust well to factors other models seen as irrelevant.

Saying that the current GFDL track doesn't appear very realistic atm.

JMO thought I would throw it out there.

[RL3AO]

what the hell are these models picking up to make them trend so far north? Is the shear forecast to disappear or osmething?

Since the models are developing the system again instead of keeping it an open wave is one of the reasons. The steering currents will take a stronger system more northerly. Also, 96L might develop and cause a weakness in the ridge.

[deltadog03]

I can see this very nicely on the WV...Structure looking better and better now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

[TheRingo]

I can see this very nicely on the WV...Structure looking better and better now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

95L providing a moist environment to travel into.