ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Stratosphere747]

20/0545 UTC 16.0N 79.8W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[bigGbear]

In the last couple of messages, we saw 16.0,79.8
and 16.5,82.2 positions. Why the big difference?

[Nederlander]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Anyone else see that increased circulation on the northwest side of the upper blob in the latest satellite loop? IMO, that looks to be the most impressive ciculation in the system?

[lrak]

The satellite loop looks like the bottom blob is it, IMO.

[coreyl]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Anyone else see that increased circulation on the northwest side of the upper blob in the latest satellite loop? IMO, that looks to be the most impressive ciculation in the system?

Are you saying thats where you think the LLC could form?

[Nederlander]

well im definitely not an expert, I only have one year of meteorology school under my belt, but just from a visible perspective, the upper blob looks more impressive to me to form the LLC?

[southerngale]

It looks like someone took some lipstick and painted a face on it.

[brunota2003]

I see clouds that are thousands of feet thick, with no real way to discern what is at the mid levels or surface without some type of observations in the area, preferably several buoys or an aircraft.

[coreyl]

well im definitely not an expert, I only have one year of meteorology school under my belt, but just from a visible perspective, the upper blob looks more impressive to me to form the LLC?

I am just wondering what people's thoughts are.

[CajunMama]

It looks like someone took some lipstick and painted a face on it.

i saw a skull Hopefully not a premonition of things to come.

[Nederlander]

well im definitely not an expert, I only have one year of meteorology school under my belt, but just from a visible perspective, the upper blob looks more impressive to me to form the LLC?

I am just wondering what people's thoughts are.

Yea, me too. I am just seeing a lot of rotation on that northwest side.. not sure if its any indication of a possible center or not though...

[lrak]

It looks like someone took some lipstick and painted a face on it.

hmm...a little early for Halloween.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

decreased pressure, increased wind, and still south.



from these coordinates it looks like the top blob is going to be it...good night

[GeneratorPower]

I suppose only 45 minutes until possible recon flight takes off, if they are flying.

[KWT]

Still looking pretty good this morning, no change really from its presentation on IR at least since 9hrs ago with lots of convection along the wave axis and still something interesting looking on the southern side. Should clear Honduras but will still hit land soon enough. How quickly it clears central America is important because it could well get into the BoC/GoM and find pretty favorable conditions.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks like someone took some lipstick and painted a face on it.

i saw a skull Hopefully not a premonition of things to come.

Ivan had a skull, so maybe this could be ivans wife?

[KWT]

Well it does look pretty decent Matt but not sure I would go that far!
I just wonder what track it will take over the Yucatan, a WNW track would be better for this system rather then a NW across land, would take longer for it to cross. The good thing for this system is it is moving pretty quickly as of now.

[Duddy]

This thing is coming for me. I can feel it.

[Nederlander]

This thing is coming for me. I can feel it.

I was pretty concerned also that it would make an upper tx coast hit, but after seeing what everyone has said on here, and seeing how far south it is, it would have to make a serious jog to the north once its in the gulf to make it to houston or port arthur... i guess it depends on the strength of that ridge, and how fast the storm moves over the next couple days....

[Ed Mahmoud]

This thing is coming for me. I can feel it.

Just indigestion.


I am not a doctor, and my medical opinions are not endorsed by Storm2K, nor is my unofficial forecast of Veracruz to Corpus Christi, between a mininal TS and a low end Cat 2, likely a strong TS or minimal Cat 1, most likely target, within band above, near/South of Mexican border.


Please consult your doctor if your feeling that 94L is coming for you continues more than 4 hours, as this could cause a serious medical condition.