ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Innotech]

its not at 20N, 84W, its closer to 18.5N, 85W but this LLC may be dissipating/relocating further northward.

[canegrl04]

Sometime during the night NHC will have shocker news for everyone except those who are on Storm2k .Dolly wants to go North

[Bertha08]

Sometime during the night NHC will have shocker news for everyone except those who are on Storm2k .Dolly wants to go North

Why do you say that?

[KWT]

Innotech, NHC has this at 18.9 so not too far off. The main question is that maybe the center is relocating a little to the north but without any recon for a little while its hard to tell. If recon finds the LLC even weaker and any hints of a new circulation then I will start paying more attention to that idea.

[dwg71]

Sometime during the night NHC will have shocker news for everyone except those who are on Storm2k .Dolly wants to go North

No storm2k wants it to go north, recon is being thrown out and nhc will be so far off come morning it will be a shock??

Trust the NHC especially out 24-48 hours.

[Jagno]

Sometime during the night NHC will have shocker news for everyone except those who are on Storm2k .Dolly wants to go North

That's fine but WE ARE CLOSED.

[KWT]

I agree dwg71 for now though even the NHC admits that the LLC has weakened...thats usually your first sign that there is about to a circulation shift.

[MGC]

Dolly remains poorly organized this afternoon with the LLC and MCL detached. Dolly has a tilt to the north. The MLC is much more vigerous than the LLC which has been partially exposed this afternoon. Since this system has had a history of reforming LLC's, it is quite possible that a new LLCC could form under the convection associated with the MCL. I don't see Dolly getting much stronger in the short term. The ULL is imparting a bit of shear on Dolly preventing the tropical storm from vertically stacking. Depending on how long Dolly takes to transverse the Yucatan will determine if Dolly's LLC remains intact when it emerges into the GOM. If Dolly emerges with a fairly robust surface circulation and vertically aligned circulation then it would not be out of the question for Dolly to possibly become a Cat-2 hurricane near landfall along the western GOM. However, if Dolly emerges with her inner core disrupted and vertically misaligned Dolly will strugle to reach hurricane intensity......MGC

[wx247]

Looking at the satellite I am watching the high clouds begin to head toward southern Louisiana. It is impressive watching a system like this develop.

[coreyl]

Sometime during the night NHC will have shocker news for everyone except those who are on Storm2k .Dolly wants to go North

Why do you think that?

[LCfromFL]

Not sure if something like this has been posted yet, but I thought it was interesting...it's a link to Wunderground's 'historical tracking map' for other July storms passing near where Dolly was/is.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200804_climo.html#a_topad

Based on this...I think it's safe to say that historically, tropical cyclones passing near where Dolly is during the month of July tend to go...well...everywhere. Guess this just shows how the synoptics vary hugely and each storm and atmospheric conditions are unique and varied (which is probably why we watch them all so, right? I mean - if they all did the same, how interesting would that be?)

[Cape Verde]

I've always been a big fan of this satellite view.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

IFyou click on the forecast point checkbox on that map, you'll see that Dolly is going to teleport to eastern Cuba and then strike Miami!

That will make the news.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Sometime during the night NHC will have shocker news for everyone except those who are on Storm2k .Dolly wants to go North

Why do you say that?

because she is w!shcasting a 200+ plus pasty white man to be running around his neighborhood near 1960 and Veterans. Some people just like weird things.


Just kidding.

Offer still goes, and I feel amazingly confident no Cat 4 or Cat 5 will come w/i 100 miles of Houston next week.


Based on rather narrow spread in models, I'd say near BRO, probably Mexico. But since this isn't a half mile wide tornado, and will probably be no more than a cat 2, hence no narrow band of 130 mph F-1 or F-2 tornado type winds in the eyewall, 50 miles one way or the other probably won't mean much, except maybe my lawn could miss out on beneficial rains on a stronger more concentrated system that heads further South.


Disclaimer: Not official, I'm an amateur, and I am not endorsed by Storm2K. I actually think NHC is probably real close. I am sure college educated professionals with decades of experience would be thrilled to hear that. I think this might be a touch stronger than NHC forecast, but they are in the ballpark. Derek Ortt and Joe Bastardi seem to have near identical forecasts, and they are similar to NHC as well.

[hurrican19]

Offer still goes, and I feel amazingly confident no Cat 4 or Cat 5 will come w/i 100 miles of Houston next week

Me too, I'm confident that a Cat 4 or Cat 5 won't come within 100 miles of Houston THIS week, either. Next week, I'd go out on a limb and say that there won't be a Cat 4/5 within 500 miles of Houston, either,

[gatorcane]

it certainly looks like this system is reforming a new center, deep convection is heading N into the MLC

[KWT]

Ed, NHC forwecast 65kts, Derek forecasts 90kts, thats actually quite a alrge difference though really till this has cleared the Yucatan anyones forecast has as much merit as another, well sort of anyway!

[HarlequinBoy]

A Cat 2 is dangerous enough.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed, NHC forwecast 65kts, Derek forecasts 90kts, thats actually quite a alrge difference though really till this has cleared the Yucatan anyones forecast has as much merit as another, well sort of anyway!

I know that. Derek's and Bastardi, never seen in the same place at the same time, have apparently identical tracks and intensity forecasts.


I'm not implying anything.

[Brent]

it certainly looks like this system is reforming a new center, deep convection is heading N into the MLC

I have to agree, very anxious for recon data.

[Nederlander]

Im still waiting for this apparent WNW turn... still looks NW.. when is that ridge supposed to start steering her?