ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Sanibel]

I see what WX57 means. While the steering level is north of Dolly the ULL is still punching into the SW side slightly. The storm's shape is compressed and showing a more NW tendency. I think it will still hit Yucatan but maybe just clip it. This would mean a stronger GOM storm from the looks of it.

Please limit posts to storm-related information to reduce load.

[Nederlander]

what is significant about the new coordinates?

[Ivanhater]

>>20.2N 84.7W Both storms chuggin' pretty good and look at the coordinates on Dolly.

Regardless of the impact on the final destination, that's a significant deviation IMHO.

Steve

Yeah Steve, not surprising looking at the loops..and take a look at the Upper air data from the GFS..Damn is all I can say..

[fci]

Ive been saying this storm has a tendency to relocate its circulation northward, and it has done so from South America all the way to the tip of the Yucatan. Considering the data reporting a weakening LLC, a strong MLC and convection displaced northeast of the true center, I come to the conclusion that it is relocating its center. This is not a wishcast, nor am I saying Im right, but it makes logical sense that a storm in this situation would do this.
Sometimes I think Pro Mets get caught up in the data and dont take the simpler approach that many of us take. It is entirely possible thast some of us see things the mets overlooked, merely because we arent focused on tons of data., We have a perspective as observers, and pro mets are good, but never perfect. I think any logical opinions regarding this storm should be considered. Its sort of similar to asking a kindergartener some simple question that they can answer immediately, but that stumps college age students. Its all about perspective and observation. Dont overlook even the simplest details, and follow your gut instinct.

Very well put and I hope accepted by all.

[Steve]

>>I would hate to think that people are wishing this thing to become a monster disaster... I went through Rita, and that sucked big time.. so why accuse people of wishing for this?

I didn't make the accusation, I was just responding to the mindset and had quoted it (">>"). I wouldn't be in the minority here if I said that I like weather excitement. Some people are paranoid, but some people are manic about this stuff. But once you affected by something extreme first hand, you see another side of it as you and many people you know lost everything they had, were displaced to new cities or worse. You went through Rita, so you know. I was on Dauphin Island for Rita, and we got numerous rainbands and got stuck on the island one day as rock jetties had been pushed by wave water onto the causeway out. Believe me, I hear you loudly and clearly. Others that have not had this kind of experience might still be into the "Wooo! Hurricane Party!" mode. I'll still pick up a sixpack for a tropical storm, but anything more than that I'm taking ridiculously seriously.

/back to the topic

Steve

[mattpetre]

Steve wrote

>>I agree Derek. Sadly I have tried to figure this out. I think some people have no lives so they have to wish for disaster. It makes no sense to me why someone would welcome a disaster.

I used to be in that number. I go way back to Camille but I enjoyed Cindy and Dennis in 2005. Then disaster struck. You get a new appreciation when you are throwing out you life's history to the side of the curb. If you're lucky like I was, you might have had a few things to salvage. If you were like Frank P [tm] in Biloxi, you were lucky to find a kitchen floor tile within a few blocks of your home. So let people get excited, let them cheer "Bring it on!!!!" Once it is on, they will know.



Steve

Well said Steve. My dad in Slidell lost a lot too, from 4ft of water in his house, 3 miles from Lake Pontchartrain. Several original WWII documents that he will never have again. Where ever she may go, our prayers will be there with you.

People aren't always wishing for disaster, just remember that please. Sometimes we are simply trying to prepare for our own worst case scenario. In that case for me, it would be a direct Houston hit at about Cat 4 currently. I by no means think this will happen, but I do believe this storm will hit within the US borders and I am scared a little. Not wishing for anything except a sudden death of this thing at this point. Despite the fact that I have done everything in my powere to let friends and family know that possibilities exist, I'd still be happiest if this storm just fizzled out completely and left us all alone to wonder how that happened.

[Seadootoo]

That is without any track changes...I thin NHC is too far south.

I think they are a little too far south myself. The best hope is it goes b/w CRP and BRO into Kennedy county (short of falling apart...but I don't see that happening).

They are building a big wind farm right on the coast in Kennedy county

[johngaltfla]

Well, I have to get up at 4am so I can be at the office by 5. It's interesting that 24 hours ago many here didn't think old 94L would clear Honduras. Now the convection is skirting the northern Yucatan.

Quite a busy September day in the tropics...

LOL, I can't wait to see August and September. Wait a minute, yes, I can wait. I think the pros will be quite busy and unfortunately that does not bode well for us coastal residents.

wxman, we appreciate all of your insights and I'll be up at 0430 to read your latest input.

John

[mattpetre]

Ive been saying this storm has a tendency to relocate its circulation northward, and it has done so from South America all the way to the tip of the Yucatan. Considering the data reporting a weakening LLC, a strong MLC and convection displaced northeast of the true center, I come to the conclusion that it is relocating its center. This is not a wishcast, nor am I saying Im right, but it makes logical sense that a storm in this situation would do this.
Sometimes I think Pro Mets get caught up in the data and dont take the simpler approach that many of us take. It is entirely possible thast some of us see things the mets overlooked, merely because we arent focused on tons of data., We have a perspective as observers, and pro mets are good, but never perfect. I think any logical opinions regarding this storm should be considered. Its sort of similar to asking a kindergartener some simple question that they can answer immediately, but that stumps college age students. Its all about perspective and observation. Dont overlook even the simplest details, and follow your gut instinct.

I do believe this is an incredibly insightful post as to why amateurs are useful and sometimes more right about certain things.

[Viper54r]

Attn Storm2K archivist: Please note the caveats when "documenting."

No need to get bent out of shape, I guess I should have put I agree with you

[dixiebreeze]

>>20.2N 84.7W Both storms chuggin' pretty good and look at the coordinates on Dolly.

Regardless of the impact on the final destination, that's a significant deviation IMHO.

Steve

Yeah Steve, not surprising looking at the loops..and take a look at the Upper air data from the GFS..Damn is all I can say..

Unless there is a switcharoo soon, the northerly trend can easily be seen just looking at the IR. That could change, but right now, the 20 N seems about right.

[boca]

I've been away from my computer all day working.The NHC has the S Tex/N mexico on track but I was looking at the cloud movement over Texas and LA and noticed the flow out of the SW. Will that have any bearing once this system gets verically stacked to the steering flow.I 'm thinking around the mid Texas coast as a hit not S Texas. Just a guess.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[artist]

yes, thanks to the many mets that have been giving their input here. It really helps people to make the decisions they need to in a timely fashion and before the final crunch time when it is really too late. As with anything there will be disagreements even between them, but that is what makes this forum so unique, each can bring the best of their ability and help to make a better consensus on all the data they have. I think each is pretty much in agreement, this is aiming for northern Mexico, southern TX, and possibly further north. When the forecast track is out only 3 days the consensus will be tightening. And they all seem to agree this could become a big, strong storm.
Thanks again mets!
It is so great to see so many here this year and willing to add your input!
[img]http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/posting.php?mode=smilies&f=59#[/img]
And the biggest thanks goes to S2K for being here for everyone.

[Air Force Met]

None of us like to be quoted... pro and am alike.

I don't mind being quoted...but being quoted incorrectly is what I have a problem with...and it happens to all pro-mets all the time. I corrected a wing commander once during a battle staff meeting (during a war no less) because he quoted me incorrectly (and then was told by the CoS that that was a no-no). He claimed I had changed my forecast and it was now worse than it had been in previous days...and I had been very consistent. I nailed a dust storm's onset 5 days out and nobody was going to steal my glory!

[stevetampa33614]

Ya its gonna skirt Yucatan. The CoC and under the MLC is an LLC forming as I can see Its going to either Brush it or hit Cancun dead on. Its very significant because it puts more of texas into play. Possibly to the LA border.

[HouTXmetro]

>>20.2N 84.7W Both storms chuggin' pretty good and look at the coordinates on Dolly.

Regardless of the impact on the final destination, that's a significant deviation IMHO.

Steve

Yeah Steve, not surprising looking at the loops..and take a look at the Upper air data from the GFS..Damn is all I can say..

What is the GFS upper Air Data telling us?

[cycloneye]

yes, thanks to the many mets that have been giving their input here. It really helps people to make the decisions they need to in a timely fashion and before the final crunch time when it is really too late. As with anything there will be disagreements even between them, but that is what makes this forum so unique, each can bring the best of their ability and help to make a better consensus on all the data they have. I think each is pretty much in agreement, this is aiming for northern Mexico, southern TX, and possibly further north. When the forecast track is out only 3 days the consensus will be tightening. And they all seem to agree this could become a big, strong storm.
Thanks again mets!
It is so great to see so many here this year and willing to add your input! [img]http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/posting.php?mode=smilies&f=59#[/img]
And the biggest thanks goes to S2K for being here for everyone.

Bravo artist.Thanks for those words.

[dixiebreeze]

Ya its gonna skirt Yucatan. The CoC and under the MLC is an LLC forming as I can see Its going to either Brush it or hit Cancun dead on. Its very significant because it puts more of texas into play. Possibly to the LA border.

Shhh.... but I think that's right.

[Ivanhater]

>>20.2N 84.7W Both storms chuggin' pretty good and look at the coordinates on Dolly.

Regardless of the impact on the final destination, that's a significant deviation IMHO.

Steve

Yeah Steve, not surprising looking at the loops..and take a look at the Upper air data from the GFS..Damn is all I can say..

What is the GFS upper Air Data telling us?

Ideal conditions for RI once in the Gulf

[Innotech]

Ive been saying this storm has a tendency to relocate its circulation northward, and it has done so from South America all the way to the tip of the Yucatan. Considering the data reporting a weakening LLC, a strong MLC and convection displaced northeast of the true center, I come to the conclusion that it is relocating its center. This is not a wishcast, nor am I saying Im right, but it makes logical sense that a storm in this situation would do this.
Sometimes I think Pro Mets get caught up in the data and dont take the simpler approach that many of us take. It is entirely possible thast some of us see things the mets overlooked, merely because we arent focused on tons of data., We have a perspective as observers, and pro mets are good, but never perfect. I think any logical opinions regarding this storm should be considered. Its sort of similar to asking a kindergartener some simple question that they can answer immediately, but that stumps college age students. Its all about perspective and observation. Dont overlook even the simplest details, and follow your gut instinct.

I do believe this is an incredibly insightful post as to why amateurs are useful and sometimes more right about certain things.

the NHC has to work on a schedule. they cant have Recon out there 24/7, so it makes sense that they may very well miss things that occur just before, or after a mission. A lot of what Dolly has been doing has literally been "flying under the radar". Recon may very well have a fixed position on her and within an hour, that position could be absolutely useless. Doesnt mean it wasnt factual, but a storm really never stops adjusting itself, especially when it is still weak. As weve seen, its possible for a storm to make us all look like the Iraqi Information minister.