ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HouTXmetro]

>>That's on the back of everyones mind right now.

Indeed. Mods or thread-police can say what they want, but that's the bigger impact to EVERYONE reading this forum whether you are in New York, California, Texas or anywhere else in America. Not to go way off topic, but cereal is now up to like $4.50 for a box of junk, and milk about $6.00 for name brands here. And we make the oil and gas. I don't think the average American consumer would be happy paying $5.00 or more per gallon for it. Long overdue for a revolution IMHO. Terrible policies + natural disasters = pain for everyone.

Anyway, new IR & WV out still shows no wane yet to the mlc's convection though system overall still appears to be leaning more toward the WNW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

the blob of deep convection appears to have a more WNW component now.

[HarlequinBoy]

What is the southern Texas coast like? Is it surge prone? Are homes built right on the beach like they are from the MGC eastward?

Sorry, I'm just not familiar with places below Galveston.

[Steve]

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... stormNum=3

The "Accutrack [tm]" looks like earlier today's NHC track. Showing a strong bend back to the west at the end. They have this dated 10pm.

Steve

[ColdFusion]

Its not looking too great at the moment, worst its looked all day dont ya think?

[RL3AO]

This is not the place to talk about gas prices. Its the place to talk about Tropical Storm Dolly.

[MiamiensisWx]

What is the southern Texas coast like? Is it surge prone? Are homes built right on the beach like they are from the MGC eastward?

Sorry, I'm just not familiar with places below Galveston.

If you live on the Gulf Coast of the CONUS, you are prone to surge, based on the seafloor topography.

For example, central/southern Texas experienced significant, widespread surge from a large Cat 3 in 1919.

[Honeyko]

Aric, I assume you're laboriously GIFing these from Mexican static imagery?

If so, you should post these in the analysis forum for the pro-mets to see.

(Why doesn't everybody loop yet? Bloody annoying, I tell yeh....)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will be to the point, if the "LLC" (wave) that the nhc says is no longer closed is all this has. In this goe's over the Yucatan before it can form a organized LLC, I don't expect more then a 50 knot tropical storm out of this if at all. I know people are not going to like me saying this but that is a real possibllity. It doe's not matter how favorable the upper levels are; because if there is no LLC, there is nothing to take a "crack" at using it for its use.

Now if the LLC is to the north in which I think it is. If it is near the MLC with the deep convection, I would watch this thing very very carefully because this could be one of the storms of this season.

Anyways a "wave" after going over land(Yucatan) have bombed before, in I'm just saying this because we need to understand it is possible.

[Nederlander]

I see that from accuweather, but ALL the models have placed the center well south of where it most likely is... I just dont see it being that far south..

[cycloneye]

This is not the place to talk about gas prices. Its the place to talk about Tropical Storm Dolly.

There is a thread in off-topic forum where anyone can talk about that theme.

[boca]

Lets just hope it stays a cat 1 and not a 3 for you guys in Texas and I'm not being sarcastic when I say that because the potential for a blow up is there.

[dtrain44]

Well, as for the track forecast, it's just too early to tell. The most informed folks here and at the NHC seem to think that whatever center currently exists is well south of the blob near the north Yucatan. As Franklin stated in the 11 PM discussion, the possible reformation of the center will have enormous impacts on the track forecast and on the models. So it's probably premature to talk about exact strike locations or even a general area until we've a clearer idea of that.

As for the "Interests in the western GOM" line, remember that similar language regarding Bermuda was in the discussions a full week before Bertha approached the islands, and the certainty of a strike SOMEWHERE with this storm is much greater than Bertha's. So I don't think it appropriate to parse that language, as it just reinforces what we should already know about the significant uncertainty WRT the track of this storm.

[wxmann_91]

(Why doesn't everybody loop yet? Bloody annoying, I tell yeh....)

Looping creates problems with bandwidth. The Mexican radars have enough of a bandwidth problem already.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I assume you're laboriously GIFing these from Mexican static imagery?

If so, you should post these in the analysis forum for the pro-mets to see.

(Why doesn't everybody loop yet? Bloody annoying, I tell yeh....)

their pro they should be able to handle it .. right

[cooter]

Where will the remain of the storm travel after a landfall hit? We need the rain in North Tx....but obvoiusly don't want any harm to the folks on the coast. Also, anyone know the status of the storm in Africa? Thanks

[MiamiensisWx]

Lets just hope it stays a cat 1 and not a 3 for you guys in Texas and I'm not being sarcastic when I say that because the potential for a blow up is there.

Agreed, and we all agree that intensifying Cat 1 TCs can be damaging as well. If it strikes at Cat 1/2 intensity, I would still consider it as a threat; as a resident who experienced Cat 1 winds, they are quite impressive and damaging with higher gusts! Don't forget the obstacle flow provided by obstructions as well.

Hopefully, it hits Kenedy County's King Ranch! That site is very sporadically populated.

[Jason_B]

Lets just hope it stays a cat 1 and not a 3 for you guys in Texas and I'm not being sarcastic when I say that because the potential for a blow up is there.

Agreed. The last D named storm that was in the Gulf bombed to 145mph overnight, not saying that will happen with Dolly but you just don't really know what you're going to get when a storm is over the warm waters of the Gulf.

[Sanibel]

CDO has the look of sprouting bands in last frames.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Steve, thats just the opposite as what a houston pro met was saying. He said a possible north movement as the gulf high moves out then bends w or wnw as it rebuilds back east. What are your thoughts on Dolly looking tilted from se to nw? You thinking about something? BTW a few others have muttered the possibilty of the high that gave highs in the upper 90's to near 100 today weakening and moving out a little quicker than forecast giving us more southerly flow?. Said it could start showing signs of weakening on the western edges as early as tomorrow. As far as I am concerned that is only talk right now.

[Smurfwicked]

What is the southern Texas coast like? Is it surge prone? Are homes built right on the beach like they are from the MGC eastward?

Sorry, I'm just not familiar with places below Galveston.

Yes there is plenty of beach front properties here, and mobile home as just as popular if not even more as anywhere else in the south. I think you would be surprised how close you see mobile homes in proximity of coastal bay areas.