ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[paintplaye]

Convection behavior on satellite loops suggests organization centered on the Cancun center.

Yes it looks like the storms are also turning around it.

[paintplaye]

It looks like a NW track now. This visible sat pic really shows that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Derek Ortt]

I know this is apples and oranges, but this potential end around the YP that Dolly may be pulling off looks eerily similar to Carla in 1961.

a better comparison may be Celia

[artist]

if there is an llc I would put it coming together around 19.84/85.96 and it appears to still be tilted somewhat. Just my amateur opinion

[mattpetre]

Some of you newer folks need to start showing a little more respect to the pros and Older members, quick way to get banned..

anyways the MLC is in the process of taking over and should be completed overnight..

I don't see any posts with lack of respect, just possible heated discussions about a storm that doesn't seem to be doing what everyone thinks it will do. I hope you don't believe I'm showing disrespect because that is not the case at all, I simply want to dig and find the truth about this storm.

a good starting point would to ask questions then of some of the old pros around here and to listen and evaluate their answers...

All of the questions I've had up to this point have been answered without asking them, or in the case that I proposed/questioned something it went unanswered at times. So I continued with my theory until it did not work. It's the scientific method and I will continue with it. Hypothesis, test, theory, etc... I mean no disrespect as I'm sure most scientists do not when they have differing opinions with colleagues. BTW, according to Google, it's all about data and never about models anyway these days (I definately disagree with that one.) I find it funny that no one on here gets too upset when TWC gets slammed regularly. Geez, I really like what the pros on this board have to offer, but if it is ever at the cost of me being able to speak freely, I will happily go to the noaa and other govt. sites and get my information and simply draw my own conclusions. I'm not trying to yell "Fire" in a crowded theater, but I do want to make sure I know if it is my theater that might catch fire.

[cheezyWXguy]

if there is an llc I would put it coming together around 19.84/85.96 and it appears to still be tilted somewhat. Just my amateur opinion

how would you get that? I cant find any rotation either on satellite or radar...

[Sanibel]

Think Dolly just did a major jump NW from that 20N center. Rare that one of those relocations everyone always mentions actually happened.

[artist]

I see a few of you pro mets out there. What are your thoughts?

[Smurfwicked]

all i know is that there's high pressure parked in front of Galveston.

...which is supposed to weaken.

I know NHC says its supposed to weaken over the next 72 hours if i remember correctly. But living in Texas nearly all my life don't they also when they begin to move always move off to the northeast? All I really know is the high pressure keeps the storm further south, but not even sure how or if that changes anything and that is what I am asking.

[Wx_Warrior]

This one will creep NW.

[BobHarlem]

if there is an llc I would put it coming together around 19.84/85.96 and it appears to still be tilted somewhat. Just my amateur opinion

how would you get that? I cant find any rotation either on satellite or radar...

Take a look at this cancun radar loop then.

[Stormcenter]

Now this is pretty good view of what is happening. The center (what there is of one) is pretty obvious. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

[Dean4Storms]

It has been at least 6 hrs now with the cluster of storms just east of the NE tip of the Yucatan rotating with continuous convection and no convection anywhere south where the old center was suppose to be and tracking to now. That tells me two possible things, 1) either there is no LLC and we are tracking nothing but an MLC imbedded in a wave which could dissapate at anytime or 2) that a new LLC has formed underneath this strong convection. I think it is number 2 from what I'm seeing and come early visibles tomorrow we'll have a monster in the making north of the Yucatan Peninsula.

[paintplaye]

This one will creep NW.

Does this look like a NW movement to you or a WNW movement? I think it is NW just the storms are starting to circle around the center.

[artist]

if there is an llc I would put it coming together around 19.84/85.96 and it appears to still be tilted somewhat. Just my amateur opinion

how would you get that? I cant find any rotation either on satellite or radar...

On water vapor (which I know can be hard to work with, I did a high zoom with 100% quality from http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

If you will work your eyes very hard to try to distinguish the layers and don't look at it head on see if you can't see where the darker spot at that lat/lon doesn't look like it could be there? I would put the mlc just to the north of it within the white blob. Also look at the curving of the image there. I hope that makes sense.

[cheezyWXguy]

if there is an llc I would put it coming together around 19.84/85.96 and it appears to still be tilted somewhat. Just my amateur opinion

how would you get that? I cant find any rotation either on satellite or radar...

Take a look at this cancun radar loop then.

No. what im saying is that i cant find a center near 20N...the cancun one is very apparent now.

[Texas Snowman]

Derek,

Just read the complete life history of Celia and you're absolutely right.

Not that I doubted you would be.

Dolly is very close indeed to Celia's history due to its protracted development from wave to storm.

[Wx_Warrior]

Looks very poorly defined to me...But who am i? Just a working member of the print media and a lowly younger bro of a pro met!!!

[Aric Dunn]

now that is a great loop.. cause i dont have to keep making them anymore as long as that site does not stop updating .. bit it seems its set up to update when the main site updates .. sweet and the loop is smoother!!! also that loops is very apparent on the circulation..
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?37

[Texas Snowman]

Stormcenter,

Thanks for the link. What I noticed was excellent venting in the NW, N, and E quads.

If this is indeed shooting the Channel as I think it is doing, I'm in agreement with you about a monster in the making.

I half-way expect this thing to ramp up and bomb out in the next 24 hours.