ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed

How many times have we heard...It's about to strengthen and tomorrow it will be a 'cane since Friday?

[Aric Dunn]

not everyones ....

[jasons2k]

Do I have to break out the "Chatty Cathy" pictures?

Let's post, not chat please!

[RL3AO]

You can see that convection on the west side is slowly getting deeper. These images are from 1932z and 2132z

[Air Force Met]

right.. but the innercore problems are not due to the so called dry air .. it is most likely do to its forward motion coupled with the fact that it just reformed this morning..

I disagree...there is some relatively dry air (not just disagreeing with you...but with all the no-dry air types).

At 25N/90W...the RH at about 800 MB was 46% at 20Z.
At 950 MB it was 61%...

That's low.

At 25/95...the RH is 25% at 700MB

There is dry air from the subsidence side of the TUTT being worked in...and the southerly inflow into Dolly...which is every storm's bread and butter...is coming off of the Yucatan. If you streamline it you will see the ENTIRE inflow from the south side is coming in from Mexico...the LENGTH of the Yucatan Peninsula. Dewpoints across that region are in the low 70's to near 70.

Remember what dewpoints in the low 70's did to the structure of Katrina and Rita...not to mention Dennis and Ivan.

Just my two cents.

[KWT]

Yep RL3AO it does seem like Dolly is starting to get closer to where it needs to be for it to strengthen, as you say convection has deepened recently in both the western and southern quadrants of the storm.

[paintplaye]

Im telling you i am either seeing a bobble or a turn to the NW

[HurricaneHunter914]

Dolly's "tail" also has deepening convection. That will probably bring alot of rain and TS force gusts to my area. She's so huge, LA will most likely be affected too.

[CrazyC83]

Dolly's "tail" also has deepening convection. That will probably bring alot of rain and TS force gusts to my area. She's so huge, LA will most likely be affected too.

Could the "tail" break off and form a separate system?

[KWT]

I still see a movement about WNW, it may look NW becuase of the new convective burst that has formed near the center and pushing over the center making it look like its moving more northerly than it is.

[Texas Snowman]

Given the inner core development now taking place and the convective bursts occurring around the center, this will be a hurricane in the overnight hours.

While I still believe that there is a good chance that Dolly will landfall somewhere on the middle coast from Corpus to Port O'Connor (based on the slowing forward speed and weakening ridge indicated by guidance), I think it would be wise to remember that a Cat 1 or lower end Cat 2 at the mouth of the RG could be very troublesome due to the number of mobile homes and the flooding potential in the RGV.

If Dolly does bomb into an upper end Cat 2 or Cat 3 prior to any landfall near the mouth of the Rio Grande, then we could have a disaster in the making, particularly if the flooding materializes.

My unofficial .02 worth.

[RL3AO]

Dolly's "tail" also has deepening convection. That will probably bring alot of rain and TS force gusts to my area. She's so huge, LA will most likely be affected too.

Could the "tail" break off and form a separate system?

LMAO Crazy.

That was a joke right?

[Aric Dunn]

right.. but the innercore problems are not due to the so called dry air .. it is most likely do to its forward motion coupled with the fact that it just reformed this morning..

I disagree...there is some relatively dry air (not just disagreeing with you...but with all the no-dry air types).

At 25N/90W...the RH at about 800 MB was 46% at 20Z.
At 950 MB it was 61%...

That's low.

At 25/95...the RH is 25% at 700MB

There is dry air from the subsidence side of the TUTT being worked in...and the southerly inflow into Dolly...which is every storm's bread and butter...is coming off of the Yucatan. If you streamline it you will see the ENTIRE inflow from the south side is coming in from Mexico...the LENGTH of the Yucatan Peninsula. Dewpoints across that region are in the low 70's to near 70.

Remember what dewpoints in the low 70's did to the structure of Katrina and Rita...not to mention Dennis and Ivan.

Just my two cents.

now that is what im talking about! .. thankyou for that by the way. i like being proved wrong, cant argue with that

just one question where did you get the dew point readings from? recon?

[Air Force Met]

Dolly's "tail" also has deepening convection. That will probably bring alot of rain and TS force gusts to my area. She's so huge, LA will most likely be affected too.

Could the "tail" break off and form a separate system?

No...to much horizontal shear for that.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Dolly's "tail" also has deepening convection. That will probably bring alot of rain and TS force gusts to my area. She's so huge, LA will most likely be affected too.

Could the "tail" break off and form a separate system?

I seriously doubt that. Has that ever happened before at all? TX doesn't need Dolly AND Edouard storming the coast.

[KWT]

Personally I'd be more worried if it actually tracks a little further south of where is progged, rioght now the N.Eyewall would hit the same sort of region as Bret did and look how little damage relative to the storms strength that did, if it shifted south a little then the N.eyewall would hit a much greater population density.

[WmE]

Dolly's "tail" also has deepening convection. That will probably bring alot of rain and TS force gusts to my area. She's so huge, LA will most likely be affected too.

Could the "tail" break off and form a separate system?

I seriously doubt that. Has that ever happened before at all? TX doesn't need Dolly AND Edouard storming the coast.

Florence and Gordon 2006. Pre Gordon was absorbed by Florence, but managed to break of and develop,

[Air Force Met]

right.. but the innercore problems are not due to the so called dry air .. it is most likely do to its forward motion coupled with the fact that it just reformed this morning..

I disagree...there is some relatively dry air (not just disagreeing with you...but with all the no-dry air types).

At 25N/90W...the RH at about 800 MB was 46% at 20Z.
At 950 MB it was 61%...

That's low.

At 25/95...the RH is 25% at 700MB

There is dry air from the subsidence side of the TUTT being worked in...and the southerly inflow into Dolly...which is every storm's bread and butter...is coming off of the Yucatan. If you streamline it you will see the ENTIRE inflow from the south side is coming in from Mexico...the LENGTH of the Yucatan Peninsula. Dewpoints across that region are in the low 70's to near 70.

Remember what dewpoints in the low 70's did to the structure of Katrina and Rita...not to mention Dennis and Ivan.

Just my two cents.

now that is what im talking about! .. thankyou for that by the way. i like being proved wrong, cant argue with that

just one question where did you get the dew point readings from? recon?

Satellite sounding and upper air. The dewpoints came from the sfc obs in Mexico. Plus...I've been on shift all day. Its no coincidence that the shape is the way it is. The big "tail" of convection is firing where it is because it still has access to moisture from the Caribbean. Look at where the dry slot in Dolly is...and has been all day. It lines up perfectly with the streamlines of the CU streets coming off the Yucatan...and they are traveling the entire length of the Yucatan.

[RL3AO]

Recon is almost to the center.

Getting better.

[Air Force Met]

And I should say...about the drier air...Once Dolly moves a little more westward...say 2-3 degrees...her southern inflow jet should no longer be coming off the continent but should be coming out of the BoC. I believe that is when you will see her begin to get her act together convectively.