ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HouTXmetro]

The storm is expected to turn N-NW later today. Watch what happens around 95W long. Most of the dynamic hurricane models (GFDL & HWRF) actually turn the storm N-NW for about 12-18 hrs toward Houston, then turn back W-NW toward landfall. If this happens expect this board to get hopping.

1. Weakening Ridge
2. ULL over West Texas/Rio Grande Valley
3. Strengthening Dolly

Ok, the Ridge is being eroded on two fronts now, Dolly and the ULL over the RVG/West Texas. If that ULL slides east somewhat is it a new ball game? On another note I think if the ULL did slide east it would start to induce some serious shear on Dolly weakening her more.

Anyone else want to chime in on this? I'm just looking at all the possibilities.

[Smurfwicked]

The storm is expected to turn N-NW later today. Watch what happens around 95W long. Most of the dynamic hurricane models (GFDL & HWRF) actually turn the storm N-NW for about 12-18 hrs toward Houston, then turn back W-NW toward landfall. If this happens expect this board to get hopping.

I think the obvious uncertainties now is enough to make this board get hopping! Because it's slowed down so much its harder for me to gather its general direction now, but it seems to be heading NW, and I think we're all getting concerned of a more northerly track.

I don't see a massive evacuate having sufficent amount of time. IMO more of the Texas coast should be under a TS watch, I really don't like the risk of people along the coast not having the time to bunker down or get out if needed.

[Stormcenter]

Well it looks like "Dolly" has slowed a good bit.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[funster]

Also get bigger and strengthening. Now down 988.8.

[KWT]

I think the general track is nailed in pretty well, may go a little further north or south but thats whatthe cone of uncertainty is there for, it would probably be better for the system to actually go a little further north than progged into the same sort of region that Bret 1999 went into.

Estimated pressure also is once again at 990mbs, so about 992-993mbs is likely again in the VDM.

[gatorcane]

The storm is expected to turn N-NW later today. Watch what happens around 95W long. Most of the dynamic hurricane models (GFDL & HWRF) actually turn the storm N-NW for about 12-18 hrs toward Houston, then turn back W-NW toward landfall. If this happens expect this board to get hopping.

I think the obvious uncertainties now is enough to make this board get hopping! Because it's slowed down so much its harder for me to gather its general direction now, but it seems to be heading NW, and I think we're all getting concerned of a more northerly track.

I don't see a massive evacuate having sufficent amount of time. IMO more of the Texas coast should be under a TS watch, I really don't like the risk of people along the coast not having the time to bunker down or get out if needed.

No need to predict possible doom and gloom. The NHC continues to nail this system and there is no reason for any doom-and-gloom scenarios you are predicting. Furthermore models are in strong agreement as to where Dolly is heading. Those not in the cone are not at risk.

Please do not spread any false rumors.

[funster]

I think the general track is nailed in pretty well, may go a little further north or south but thats whatthe cone of uncertainty is there for, it would probably be better for the system to actually go a little further north than progged into the same sort of region that Bret 1999 went into.

Estimated pressure also is once again at 990mbs, so about 992-993mbs is likely again in the VDM.

I remember Brett went into an area of Texas with a small population. It was a tiny storm though.

[KWT]

Exactly Funster, far southern Texas is actually much more populated then that region.

Also I missed that last set, estimated pressure down to 988.9mbs so its depeened a little bit since recon went through last by a few mbs as well another sign this is getting steadily stronger.

[lrak]

The partners at my firm have decided Dolly is not going to be a problem for Corpus Christi and we are not going home early to take care of loose ends. I hope I'll have some time after 5pm today if things get worse like intensification and a more northly track. Should I convince them to let us off to go home and board up and possibly leave town?

Quote from a partner "80mph, we get that kind of wind from cold fronts, don't worry" Famous last words?

I live just on the other side of Padre Island, maybe 10 miles from the ocean, and my house looks out over a salt mud flat. I worry big time and my stomach is kinda upset after listening to these guys. My family and house are more important than this job...LOL.

Sincerely,

karl (aka) lrak

[stevetampa33614]

Quote from a partner "80mph, we get that kind of wind from cold fronts, don't worry" Famous last words?

This scares me, no you dont. An 80mph wind, is pretty hard to stand in and little things like shingles will kill you. Tell him to join this forum.

edit actually better not.

[ROCK]

The partners at my firm have decided Dolly is not going to be a problem for Corpus Christi and we are not going home early to take care of loose ends. I hope I'll have some time after 5pm today if things get worse like intensification and a more northly track. Should I convince them to let us off to go home and board up and possibly leave town?

Quote from a partner "80mph, we get that kind of wind from cold fronts, don't worry" Famous last words?

I live just on the other side of Padre Island, maybe 10 miles from the ocean, and my house looks out over a salt mud flat. I worry big time and my stomach is kinda upset after listening to these guys. My family and house are more important than this job...LOL.

Sincerely,

karl (aka) lrak

my advice...you better expect so stormy conditions if you plan on riding it out...just my 2 cents...

[KWT]

lrak, thats really bad, sure 80mph may not sound all that impressive but thats about what Katrina had on its first landfall and that caused a fair surprise for Florida. Besides I think to compare a hurricane to a cold front is pretty poor really!
80mph will push you over if your not ready for it, I've had a few 80mph gusts in the UK and you really can under estimate it big time.

Still i think the core of the system wil lbe decently to your south, may well get some decent TS strength winds though, esp in the gusts.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning. I see Dolly has made a few changes over night. SLowed way down and has become more vertically stacked. Inner core looks like it coming along as well. I see RECON reports a fairly good drop in pressures as well. The 10 AM CDT Advisory should be "interesting".

[hurricanefloyd5]

The partners at my firm have decided Dolly is not going to be a problem for Corpus Christi and we are not going home early to take care of loose ends. I hope I'll have some time after 5pm today if things get worse like intensification and a more northly track. Should I convince them to let us off to go home and board up and possibly leave town?

Quote from a partner "80mph, we get that kind of wind from cold fronts, don't worry" Famous last words?

I live just on the other side of Padre Island, maybe 10 miles from the ocean, and my house looks out over a salt mud flat. I worry big time and my stomach is kinda upset after listening to these guys. My family and house are more important than this job...LOL.

Sincerely,

karl (aka) lrak

I think you should go home now and take care of things like tieing us loose ends could there is a reason yeah they are under a hurricanes warning!!!!!!!!!!!!

[lrak]

So you guys and gals are fairly confident on a Brownsville landfall still? This slowing down and northerly turn is not going to happen, or affect Corpus?

Thanks,
karl

[lrak]

Good idea, I think I may have one of them read a few pages of this section.

[JPmia]

The partners at my firm have decided Dolly is not going to be a problem for Corpus Christi and we are not going home early to take care of loose ends. I hope I'll have some time after 5pm today if things get worse like intensification and a more northly track. Should I convince them to let us off to go home and board up and possibly leave town?

Quote from a partner "80mph, we get that kind of wind from cold fronts, don't worry" Famous last words?

I live just on the other side of Padre Island, maybe 10 miles from the ocean, and my house looks out over a salt mud flat. I worry big time and my stomach is kinda upset after listening to these guys. My family and house are more important than this job...LOL.

Sincerely,

karl (aka) lrak

It's employers like this one that put people in danger every time a storm approaches. Shame on them.

[KWT]

Well lrak the system does appear to be tracking a little to the north of the advisory point however eveen if thats stays the case that would only mean a borderline Texas strike rather then the far NMexico hit the NHC was implying.

[ColdFusion]

So you guys and gals are fairly confident on a Brownsville landfall still? This slowing down and northerly turn is not going to happen, or affect Corpus?

Thanks,
karl

PLEASE do not base your decisions on the forecasts of posters here. Listen to the NHC and do what they are telling you to do. Some of the people here you are basing your opinions are CHILDREN, and most of the others have no meterology background at ALL.

Sure its GREAT and FUN to discuss and read the posts and opinions of others, but when deciding how to protect life and property, only listen to the NHC. They know what the are talking about.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFDL starts out far too weak this system at 1000mbs. Yep it does take the system NW for a little while then bends it back to the WNW but on this run it only just gets to hurricane status probably because it starts off to low.

Agreed, KWT, need to throw out the 06Z GFDL because its too weak in intensity. 06Z HWRF does a better job with intensity and brings the storm northward off the TX coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008072206-dolly04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Um, GFDL 6 hour intensity, for 12Z, a little while ago, was 80 knot winds at 10 meters. I doubt Dolly has 75 knot winds now, ergo, the GFDL isn't behind the curve.

In my humble opinion.