ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nice squall leaving work at Galleria, but dry so far Northern Harris County.


pretty blue skies between patches of cirrus and towering cu.

[artist]

For it to be considered RI..does it not need to drop 1.75 mb every hour? How many hours of that does it need to be,to be classified as RI? If there was a 2mb drop in the past hour,how many more hours of that does there need to be..Just a very curious weather nut!!

from the NHC -

Rapid Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb for 24 hours.

[Normandy]

One thing we need to remember RE: intensifying hurricanes vs. weakening hurricanes.....A rapidly deepening Cat2 is probably just as bad as a weakening Cat3....we saw last year with Dean how incredibly intense the winds were in all quadrants despite FL winds indicating lower surface reading...Explosively deepening storms mix all there winds down very efficiently, and usually storms that do tremendous wind damage are ones that are deepening at landfall (Wilma, Charley, Andrew, even Claudette at Cat1-2 did some remarkable wind damage). This is going to be a severe blow to Brownsville.

[carversteve]

For it to be considered RI..does it not need to drop 1.75 mb every hour? How many hours of that does it need to be,to be classified as RI? If there was a 2mb drop in the past hour,how many more hours of that does there need to be..Just a very curious weather nut!!

from the NHC -

Rapid Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb for 24 hours.

Thank you!!

[Cape Verde]

In the last few years that nick of the woods has slowly been populated. A&I Kingsville, border enforcement, drug enforcement, and Port Mansfields fishing tourism has increased the population since Bret. You're exactly right a direct hit on Brownsville would devastate the poor.

There are maybe a couple dozen fishing cabins, not homes but essentially fishing guide businesses along Laguna Madre, and a direct hit on them from even a Category 1 is likely to eliminate most of them. They're barely above sea level as it is. But they're cheap wooden structures that will be rebuilt easily. The cows, Nilgai, deer, and hogs that live along that stretch have adequate cover. The homes of the ranchers who own these super mega ranches are well built.

I'm hoping for a north of Brownsville landfall. Near Sarita would be good, maybe a little south of that.

There's really no good place for a hurricane to hit. Well, Siberia maybe, but probably not in the cards.

[KWT]

We are a little off that Artist but then again I think the estimated deeping of 1.25mbs an hour is still pretty fast.

Still got huge storms offshore from the central gulf just trying to get inland!

Sadly a near hit or direct hit on Brownsville is looking pretty likely as of now and probably as a category-2 IMO.

[Ivanhater]

I cant remember the member who always posts the radar images with where the center has gone on radar when a hurricane is approaching..would be nice to have that tonight

[lrak]

In the last few years that nick of the woods has slowly been populated. A&I Kingsville, border enforcement, drug enforcement, and Port Mansfields fishing tourism has increased the population since Bret. You're exactly right a direct hit on Brownsville would devastate the poor.

There are maybe a couple dozen fishing cabins, not homes but essentially fishing guide businesses along Laguna Madre, and a direct hit on them from even a Category 1 is likely to eliminate most of them. They're barely above sea level as it is. But they're cheap wooden structures that will be rebuilt easily. The cows, Nilgai, deer, and hogs that live along that stretch have adequate cover. The homes of the ranchers who own these super mega ranches are well built.

I'm hoping for a north of Brownsville landfall. Near Sarita would be good, maybe a little south of that.

There's really no good place for a hurricane to hit. Well, Siberia maybe, but probably not in the cards.

I wish Siberia, and I didn't even think about how the structures were, built. Kinda like a disposable fishing shack. I lived in one of those for 3 days NEVER AGAIN.

[KWT]

Normandy, yep I agree with you strengthening storms with deep explosive convection do seem to have a far better ability to drag those winds down right to the surface and they often seem to surprise people with the power strengthening systems have.

Ivanhater, yep that would be pretty cool to see esp now the eye is well in range for the radars to see and get a good idea of the structure of the hurricane.

[ekal]

The radar out of Brownsville shows a fairly large eye trying to develop. That would mean a large radius of maximum winds.

Showers/thunderstorms in the eyewall have yet to fully wrap around this eye feature, but I think that will change as we progress further into the night.

Best to all the folks in South Texas/Northern Mexico that will be affected by this storm. Stay safe, ya'll.

[Ivanhater]

Normandy, yep I agree with you strengthening storms with deep explosive convection do seem to have a far better ability to drag those winds down right to the surface and they often seem to surprise people with the power strengthening systems have.

Ivanhater, yep that would be pretty cool to see esp now the eye is well in range for the radars to see and get a good idea of the structure of the hurricane.

Yeah KWT, he uses some software program to do it...Im sure other members know who Im talking about...

[caribepr]

radar structure is becoming increasingly ominous. lets hope this does not strengthen to the coast.. casue major hurricane is still very possible..

It bothers me when people use words like these. Anything is possible.. it is possible that this storm could be a category 5 within 1 hour, and it is also possible that this storm will dissipate before striking land.

We are not as concerned with what is possible, but with what is likely. Most metereologist and the NHC say that a category 3 hurricane is very unlikely. Statements like the one above are mis-leading, and can cause unwarranted fear and confusion.

I chose this out of a plethora of posts that would have applied, just to say...s2K has a very good reputation online and a lot of people are reading these posts who don't have much of a background weather wise and will never post, they are just here looking for info - and good for them!!!; they are people who will never post, but living in or near a possibly frightening situation who are trying to find out what is going on. So please keep these people in mind as you post! Over estimates, underestimates, differing from the NHC...your OPINION, please base them on the facts as presented so those looking for clear information on which they will make major life decisions (of course their own), based on *as close to what we know and truly see* forecasts, rather than speculation.
Thanks.

[drezee]

Based on the HCT assertion, I would say that rapid intensification would start after 2115Z (515pm Eastern). not much time to go before landfall, so probably likely to not go major with current speed.

Note: I believe that RI starts in less than 3 hours now...

OK, time is up...if I am right RI should commence about now

[cycloneye]

Someone said radar?,here is one.This is from senorpepr.

[jabman98]

Local reporter broadcasting from S. Padre Island mentioned emergency stuff activated, disaster areas pre-declared, etc. Then reminded everyone that inland flooding is frequently the cause of more deaths than on the actual landfall area. Depending where she hits, this could very well be true, given the numerous poor areas in S. TX and poorly built housing, etc.

With all the focus on wind and strike area, it's so often the flooding that causes more problems.

We have had one reasonable rain shower here just north of downtown Houston. Now the sun is out, although it's cloudy.

[wxman57]

The radar out of Brownsville shows a fairly large eye trying to develop. That would mean a large radius of maximum winds.

Showers/thunderstorms in the eyewall have yet to fully wrap around this eye feature, but I think that will change as we progress further into the night.

Best to all the folks in South Texas/Northern Mexico that will be affected by this storm. Stay safe, ya'll.

Just remember, the center is 125nm from BRO radar. That puts the center of the beam at about 19,000 feet above the water. You're looking at the mid levels of the storm, not the surface. And there will be a good bit of attenuation of the radar beam. Check the vortex data messages for eye diameter. You'll find that the eye isn't as big as it appears from so far away on radar. Also note the models initialized with a radius of max wind at 15nm and the last marine advisory reflects the hurricane-force winds extending out only 15nm SW of the center in that heavy squall. The forecast is for hurricane force winds to extend out only 30nm from the center at landfall. A typical size for hurricanes.

[KWT]

I don't think its going to get stronger then what it is now Dreeze its not far off RI as it is presently.

Edit, yeah the eye isn't that large, probably about average for a hurricane of this strength I suppose.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dolly Forecast Impact chances:

Currently between the last 2 center fixes Dolly has turned more to the right of the previous heading. Here is what I am thinking for impact zones: (black line is what I am thinking for the track until landfall. Key question is when does the ridge start to strengthen pushing Dolly to the west.)

[ekal]

The radar out of Brownsville shows a fairly large eye trying to develop. That would mean a large radius of maximum winds.

Showers/thunderstorms in the eyewall have yet to fully wrap around this eye feature, but I think that will change as we progress further into the night.

Best to all the folks in South Texas/Northern Mexico that will be affected by this storm. Stay safe, ya'll.

Just remember, the center is 125nm from BRO radar. That puts the center of the beam at about 19,000 feet above the water. You're looking at the mid levels of the storm, not the surface. And there will be a good bit of attenuation of the radar beam. Check the vortex data messages for eye diameter. You'll find that the eye isn't as big as it appears from so far away on radar. Also note the models initialized with a radius of max wind at 15nm and the last marine advisory reflects the hurricane-force winds extending out only 15nm SW of the center in that heavy squall. The forecast is for hurricane force winds to extend out only 30nm from the center at landfall. A typical size for hurricanes.

You are definitely correct about that. I should have remembered we are looking at the mid-level circulation from this distance.

[KWT]

I mainly agree Hurricanewatcher2007, though i do think it may end up going a little to the south of your track, I think it may well hit very closre to the border, hard to tell even at this stage which country is hit however, the US or Mexico...