ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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Sanibel
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6961 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:48 pm

The eye is nice and round at low level but dirty higher up. Could be shear on it. Could be intensifiying - I'm not sure.
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#6962 Postby artist » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:49 pm

the flooding is my fear and concern as well. Has anyone found a streaming feed yet, either tv or radio? TIA!
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6963 Postby MGC » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:49 pm

Dolly's radar and satellite presentations in the past couple of hours appear to indicate that the intensification trend has leveled off. Dry air appears to have become entrained into the hurricane's circulation from the south. The eyewall on the south and eastern side of the hurricane have appeared to have eroded by dry air from the south due to a ULL low to Dolly's south. The dry air is clearly evident on the WV satellite loop. The ULL to the south is also restricting outflow to the south. So, it looks like Dolly may have reached maxium intensity for now. Of course things can change quickly. Hopefully Dolly does not intensify more tonight. I think she has reached rock bottom.......MGC
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6964 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:50 pm

Sanibel wrote:The eye is nice and round at low level but dirty higher up. Could be shear on it. Could be intensifiying - I'm not sure.

Not shear at all. Its only 80mph...what do you expect? The eye is just starting to clear out now, as a band is moving to the north of it. Organization is improving and it will likely continue to strengthen.
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#6965 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:52 pm

some interesting things happening.. right now..
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#6966 Postby HarlequinBoy » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:52 pm

Does anybody have any info on flash flood guidance down in S TX tonight/tomorrow?
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6967 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:53 pm

MGC wrote:Dolly's radar and satellite presentations in the past couple of hours appear to indicate that the intensification trend has leveled off. Dry air appears to have become entrained into the hurricane's circulation from the south. The eyewall on the south and eastern side of the hurricane have appeared to have eroded by dry air from the south due to a ULL low to Dolly's south. The dry air is clearly evident on the WV satellite loop. The ULL to the south is also restricting outflow to the south. So, it looks like Dolly may have reached maxium intensity for now. Of course things can change quickly. Hopefully Dolly does not intensify more tonight. I think she has reached rock bottom.......MGC

Nope I dont agree...what you are seeing is what is seen on every system as it approaches a coastline. The radar cant see through the heavy precipitation on the western side. I highly doubt this has leveled off...eye is just starting to show up on IR.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6968 Postby A1A » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:53 pm

ROCK wrote:ULL to her NW is eating at her...see her flatten out on the NW...ULL to the SW restricting as well....trof digging in the plains.....she really is moving slow in the last few frames...


Yeah, I think that ULL is keeping the moisture from getting into central Texas - that would be a plus for us with this storm.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6969 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:53 pm

Less warm water nearer to coast. Trend would be slow continued intensification.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6970 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:57 pm

Sanibel wrote:Less warm water nearer to coast. Trend would be slow continued intensification.


Usually this only affects northward moving systems though, Dolly is westward so it shouldn't be a problem for her.
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Re: Re:

#6971 Postby alan1961 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:59 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
alan1961 wrote:
KWT wrote:Yeah I'd like to see that as well Boca as I'm in the UK and don't have nearly quite the same TV options as some of you guys in the states have.

hsvwx, yeah its done a pretty decent job thus far, I think the NHC always say prepare for a category above, so in the as eof the offical NHC forecast, prepare for a high end cat-2 I think.


http://www.newslink.org/stattele.html

just 52 states to choose from there KWT :wink:


Now I know you Brits know we have 50 states! :D


ok go on then, i'll drop hawaii and alaska out of the contigous equation :lol:
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6972 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:59 pm

This looks like a good one to chase. I hope TWC is there.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6973 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Jul 22, 2008 11:00 pm

Sanibel wrote:This looks like a good one to chase. I hope TWC is there.


Theyve got two people including Cantore.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6974 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 22, 2008 11:01 pm

Sanibel wrote:This looks like a good one to chase. I hope TWC is there.


Cantore is in South Padre island.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6975 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jul 22, 2008 11:02 pm

Heavy rain about to start on shore. Also, the NE quadrant around the center has become better defined on radar.

Image
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#6976 Postby HarlequinBoy » Tue Jul 22, 2008 11:04 pm

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#6977 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jul 22, 2008 11:05 pm

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#6978 Postby HarlequinBoy » Tue Jul 22, 2008 11:06 pm

It's western eyewall looks pretty intense.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6979 Postby Sanibel » Tue Jul 22, 2008 11:07 pm

That little eye at higher level in the eye is sometimes seen in storms doing intensification jerks. Or it's nothing.
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Re: ATL: H Dolly in Western Gulf of Mexico

#6980 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Jul 22, 2008 11:07 pm

Looks like its just drifting west now.
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