ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[raindrops68]

ok go on then, i'll drop hawaii and alaska out of the contigous equation

Your up early

[Cat5x]

Dolly's radar and satellite presentations in the past couple of hours appear to indicate that the intensification trend has leveled off. Dry air appears to have become entrained into the hurricane's circulation from the south. The eyewall on the south and eastern side of the hurricane have appeared to have eroded by dry air from the south due to a ULL low to Dolly's south. The dry air is clearly evident on the WV satellite loop. The ULL to the south is also restricting outflow to the south. So, it looks like Dolly may have reached maxium intensity for now. Of course things can change quickly. Hopefully Dolly does not intensify more tonight. I think she has reached rock bottom.......MGC

The ULL has been there and cutting off the southern part of the circulation since before Dolly became Dolly. Nothing new.

[fasterdisaster]

She's definitely looking better. It looks like one of those storms where if there were just 6-12 more hours of water she would have gone under RI. Brownsville dodged a big bullet (knock on wood). Still could reach 90 mph though.

[Cat5x]

Looks like its just drifting west now.

It has, I plotted the exact radar spot of the eye 3 hours ago and just ran the latest radar loop and it moved DUE west but very very little, seems like 5 mph or less. didn't move much at all but it was due west.

[Swimdude]

Is Dolly pretty far North of the latest NHC point?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

[Sanibel]

Pretty much on NHC track. They really nailed this one.

[ROCK]

She's definitely looking better. It looks like one of those storms where if there were just 6-12 more hours of water she would have gone under RI. Brownsville dodged a big bullet (knock on wood). Still could reach 90 mph though.

better? her outflow in two quads has being reduced to nill.....the ULL is dropping from the NW right next to her....ULL to the SW is restricting her as well. She has peaked IMO....

[alan1961]

Thank goodness this board as slowed down..i've only just caught up at 5-15am in England Dolly your wearing me out madam

[ekal]

She's definitely looking better. It looks like one of those storms where if there were just 6-12 more hours of water she would have gone under RI. Brownsville dodged a big bullet (knock on wood). Still could reach 90 mph though.

better? her outflow in two quads has being reduced to nill.....the ULL is dropping from the NW right next to her....ULL to the SW is restricting her as well. She has peaked IMO....

While the outflow is restricted, take a look at the 3:45z IR image. The eye is becoming better defined.

[fasterdisaster]

She's definitely looking better. It looks like one of those storms where if there were just 6-12 more hours of water she would have gone under RI. Brownsville dodged a big bullet (knock on wood). Still could reach 90 mph though.

better? her outflow in two quads has being reduced to nill.....the ULL is dropping from the NW right next to her....ULL to the SW is restricting her as well. She has peaked IMO....

Of course her outflow is reduced she's approaching land. And the ULL has been there the whole time no reason it would start affecting her all of a sudden now. Her eye is clearing out and radar bands are wrapping around.

[cheezyWXguy]

She's definitely looking better. It looks like one of those storms where if there were just 6-12 more hours of water she would have gone under RI. Brownsville dodged a big bullet (knock on wood). Still could reach 90 mph though.

better? her outflow in two quads has being reduced to nill.....the ULL is dropping from the NW right next to her....ULL to the SW is restricting her as well. She has peaked IMO....

While the outflow is restricted, take a look at the 3:45z IR image. The eye is becoming better defined.

yeah this is looking way better...the only bad thing for the storm is that it dropped a western band...oh well.

[vbhoutex]

She's definitely looking better. It looks like one of those storms where if there were just 6-12 more hours of water she would have gone under RI. Brownsville dodged a big bullet (knock on wood). Still could reach 90 mph though.

better? her outflow in two quads has being reduced to nill.....the ULL is dropping from the NW right next to her....ULL to the SW is restricting her as well. She has peaked IMO....

I hope you are right and I think you probably are. She is now over shallower waters with less heat content. Along with the restricted outflow, even if at this crawl she spends more time over water, I don't expect much more if any strengthening. I am much more confident of that now than I was several hours ago.

[PTrackerLA]

Looking at the latest IR images on the GHCC site, intense convection is starting to wrap around the NE eyewall. Look for some strengthening if this continues.

[fasterdisaster]

I didn't say she WOULD go under RI I said if she had more time she might since she's now approaching land so only 90 mph is probably the most that can happen.

[funster]

There is some deeper convection returning again. Hopefully she is done strengthening because 80mph is bad enough but there is still potential for stronger winds.

[RL3AO]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1114 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1114 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR RUSSELLTOWN...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL CAMERON SOUTHWEST 1115 PM CDT AND APPROACH THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER BY 1130 PM.


AT 1114 PM CDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS ALSO REPORTED A ROPE TORNADO NEAR
HIGHWAY 100 AND 77.

[ROCK]

She's definitely looking better. It looks like one of those storms where if there were just 6-12 more hours of water she would have gone under RI. Brownsville dodged a big bullet (knock on wood). Still could reach 90 mph though.

better? her outflow in two quads has being reduced to nill.....the ULL is dropping from the NW right next to her....ULL to the SW is restricting her as well. She has peaked IMO....

Of course her outflow is reduced she's approaching land. And the ULL has been there the whole time no reason it would start affecting her all of a sudden now. Her eye is clearing out and radar bands are wrapping around.

not the ULL to her NW.....my own personal theory on land interaction is the friction causes the TC to constrict towards the center thus we see a tightening center. I dont think she will fully wrap with the ULL to her SW...shallow waters, slower speed (upwellling), JMO.....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Barely creeping a shade North of due West, judging from my unprofessional and free NWS WSR-88D NexRad Doppler radar loop.

Eye may be closed on East side, and radar is scanning above or being attenuated by precip.


Ok, its late, way OT, I used to be able to repair Navy radar, like the AN/SPS-10 surface search radar. The good old days.

[Aric Dunn]

we have closed eyewall on radar .. with almost a donut around the entire center.. she maybe strengthening more... !!

[Wx_Warrior]

Because I smmmmeelllllaaaa, what the Rock is cooking...

It's a great tool. As is the GFS. But to each is own. It's my brother's fault, really.