ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[ronjon]

Looks like Dolly has slowed down - seems to be maybe a slow drift to the west.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Stormcenter]

Well, thank heaven she's running out of time... another 6 or 7 hours over water and she would be a bona fide beast. As it is, she's gonna be pretty bad.

As long as she doesn't stall. Anyway after Charly and Humberto we should have known this could possibly happen. A very impressive looking system.

[Air Force Met]

Is the eastern eyewall decaying?

I was about to post the same, radar indicates breaks in eyewall as well as some dry air entraining. Pressure continues to drop however. Maybe land intervention at this point.

No dry air on WV.

WV only sees the upper levels. If there is dry air...it is working in at the lower levels from the land.

[gatorcane]

Yep, I'm eating crow too. I made a stand on Dolly moving more north to Corpus northward when it found the forecasted weakening of the ridge and slowed down. For a while yesterday, I thought that had a chance to happen.

I guess I can avoid eating crow on the intensity - have said all along it would be a Cat 2 to low end Cat 3 on Tx landfall.

All I can do now is sit back and watch.

I can tell you there is a clear reason how/why the NHC comes up with that cone. If there were any doubt I can assure you the NHC would expand the cone. Since the NHC did not you should not be surprised it did not move more north.

and another FYI about the NHC, it looks like their track forecast from when Dolly had just formed in the NW Carribean is going to verify within a small window (like 25-50 miles). Hats off to them because the NHC nailed this system from the get-go both track AND intensity-wise.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like Dolly has slowed down - seems to be maybe a slow drift to the west.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

She's feeling the coast and doesn't want to go inland.

[ALhurricane]

BRO radar showing 97 kt in the SW eyewall

Correction....make that 101 kt.

[Chacor]

ALhurricane: What level was that reading taken from?

[ALhurricane]

ALhurricane: What level was that reading taken from?

2500 feet.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This lack of Moisture on the N side can only be good for S TX in the short term...

[Air Force Met]

If there were any doubt I can assure you the NHC would expand the cone. Since the NHC did not you should not be surprised it did not move more north.

The cone is just 2/3 of the average statistical forecast error...it has nothing to do with any particular storm.

[Thunder44]

ALhurricane: What level was that reading taken from?

2500 feet.

So how would you reduce that to the ground?

[hurricanefloyd5]

I don't know if this is old or new news but here you go....

PORT ISABEL ON THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH AND MATAMOROS MEXICO
REPORTED GUSTS TO 55 MPH... The worse is stilll yet to come and this could become a CAT.2 Hurricane before landfall

[HarlequinBoy]

Radar is showing around 3 inches of rain in the last hour in a band just offshore.

[loro-rojo]

The NE eyewall may not look as impressive, but it looks like the SW eyewall is more than makig up for it.

[KWT]

Yeah possibly DESTRUCTION5 though with the system the way it is already it probably won't make a huge difference, there is still some pretty explosive convection present.

ALhurricane, thats pretty amazing I wonder whether that will push the NHC into upgrading this to a category-2?

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
Her north eyewall has opened up.

[Air Force Met]

Looks like Dolly has slowed down - seems to be maybe a slow drift to the west.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

She's feeling the coast and doesn't want to go inland.

Looks like its moved 8 miles in about 2 hours.

[Chacor]

Is this thanks to the cold eddy right off the coast? I really hope so. (About eyewall breaking up.)

[KWT]

So AFM about 4mph, really crawling towards land but should stil lmake landfall soon though.
The eyewall does seem to be weakening, not sure how much difference it will make though as winds are still likely to ramp up to catch up with the pressure.

[HarlequinBoy]