For those who have more time....

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TheShrimper
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For those who have more time....

#1 Postby TheShrimper » Wed Jul 23, 2008 7:16 pm

Could any who have the time and intellect, please research some recording stations that will justify Dolly as being a 100 MPH hurricane at landfall. I don't have the computer skills to do so, or the direction to take. I am just curious as to whether there was anything remotely close to even a 100 MPH gust, let alone sustained winds at that level. Thanks, TheShrimper.
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Re: For those who have more time....

#2 Postby fasterdisaster » Wed Jul 23, 2008 7:18 pm

Dolly's most intense winds were in a very rural area. I can't tell you for sure but I doubt there were any stations right where those 100 mph winds would be.
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Re: For those who have more time....

#3 Postby TheShrimper » Wed Jul 23, 2008 7:20 pm

Thanks, that seems like the generic answer that is always served.
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Re: For those who have more time....

#4 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 7:22 pm

TheShrimper wrote:Thanks, that seems like the generic answer that is always served.



Recon!
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#5 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 7:28 pm

From what I could see, there is almost zero chance that any recording station will show 100 mph winds. The strongest winds would have been over Padre Island National Seashore which is not likely to be sampled at all.

However, the Doppler radar estimates over the area suggested winds of about 85 kt in the region before landfall (which the Recon could not reach) according to the 1500Z discussion. (There were some echoes that would translate to about 90 kt at the surface at that time, but Dolly probably weakened some before landfall.)

Given the information I can see, the landfall intensity was 85 kt. However, I think it was 90 kt a couple hours before at 1500Z.
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Re: For those who have more time....

#6 Postby TheShrimper » Wed Jul 23, 2008 7:32 pm

Once again, what and where were the highest winds recorded at on the ground...sustained and gusts.
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Re: For those who have more time....

#7 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 7:33 pm

TheShrimper wrote:Once again, what and where were the highest winds recorded at on the ground...sustained and gusts.


Highest found so far: Harlingen, sustained 61 mph and gusts 74 mph I believe, but the instrument failed there.
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Re: For those who have more time....

#8 Postby TheShrimper » Wed Jul 23, 2008 7:40 pm

thanks Crazy, that's pretty much what I presumed. I have rarely seen numbers depicted by Recon be justified in any ground observations. I think Harligen should invest in some more sophisticated instrumentation as well, if they failed at the velocity you cited.
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Re: For those who have more time....

#9 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 7:42 pm

TheShrimper wrote:thanks Crazy, that's pretty much what I presumed. I have rarely seen numbers depicted by Recon be justified in any ground observations. I think Harligen should invest in some more sophisticated instrumentation as well, if they failed at the velocity you cited.


Failures are common at lower wind speeds, usually due to power outages.
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Re: For those who have more time....

#10 Postby TheShrimper » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:09 pm

Well Crazy, power outages usually come hand in hand with landfalling hurricanes, yet ground observations have been shown to record wind observations much higher than 100MPH in the past. That said, I think this hurricane was well over hyped wind wise and untill someone comes up with some factual information to verify the posted claim, I am standing on what I say. Again, it is not the first time that this has been blown way out of proportion.
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#11 Postby mf_dolphin » Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:20 pm

Forgive me but it sounds like you've already made up your mind Shrimper.
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#12 Postby CajunMama » Wed Jul 23, 2008 9:03 pm

Maybe you should try to research it yourself. You've shot down anyone who tried to find information for you.
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Re: For those who have more time....

#13 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Jul 23, 2008 9:40 pm

I posted an observation that was taken by one of the local TV stations on SPI with their anemometer. They were reporting 90 mph sustained with gusts to 115mph. I know that is not an official station, but I would pretty much trust their equipment since Dr. Neil Frank is thier consultant.
Past that this is a "problem" we run into with every TC it seems. Unfortunately their are not official reporting stations set up every mile or so, which is what would be needed to capture a true snapshot of winds associated with any TC. That is why sometimes amatuer readings, if they can be verified, are factoed into the final reports.
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#14 Postby jasons2k » Wed Jul 23, 2008 9:48 pm

I think we should see the reports tomorrow from SPI before making any assumptions like this. An initial report I saw from a chaser in Port Isabel said basically 'for anyone doubting Dolly's intensity, wait until the images come-out from the exposed coastal locations first'

The tidbits I've gotten thus far seem to support the Recon estimates (such as the KHOU report posted by vbhoutex)

Here is a preliminary wind analysis from the HRD:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour02.png

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour02.png
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Re:

#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 9:51 pm

jasons wrote:I think we should see the reports tomorrow from SPI before making any assumptions like this. An initial report I saw from a chaser in Port Isabel said basically 'for anyone doubting Dolly's intensity, wait until the images come-out from the exposed coastal locations first'

The tidbits I've gotten thus far seem to support the Recon estimates (such as the KHOU report posted by vbhoutex)

Here is a preliminary wind analysis from the HRD:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour02.png


That was nearly two hours after landfall. 80 kt seems correct for that point.
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jul 23, 2008 10:01 pm

Maybe you're expecting someone to tell you, "I was there with a anenometer at landfall and measured 85 knots." If you follow the RECON reports you would see that the intensity of a storm is not consistent in every quadrant and not even from different places in the same quadrant. A storm intensity is measured by the highest winds found that correspond to the storm over a period of time (1 min, 10 min, 3 sec gust, etc). For example, in the case of Hurricane Andrew, not everone saw the hurricane five force winds, and that was visible in the damage pattern across South Florida. The area where Dolly's center made landfall is sparcely populated and it's very likely that the highest winds were not recorded by an anenometer.

Moreover, with all the resources available, RECON, radar, satellite images, Dvorak, QuikSCAT, etc, I think it was pretty easy to guess that Dolly was a category 2 storm. You can't deny the RECON data. Is like going to see The Dark Knight and denying that you saw Batman in the movie.
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Re:

#17 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 10:04 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Maybe you're expecting someone to tell you, "I was there with a anenometer at landfall and measured 85 knots." If you follow the RECON reports you would see that the intensity of a storm is not consistent in every quadrant and not even from different places in the same quadrant. A storm intensity is measured by the highest winds found that correspond to the storm over a period of time (1 min, 10 min, 3 sec gust, etc). For example, in the case of Hurricane Andrew, not everone saw the hurricane five force winds, and that was visible in the damage pattern across South Florida. The area where Dolly's center made landfall is sparcely populated and it's very likely that the highest winds were not recorded by an anenometer.

Moreover, with all the resources available, RECON, radar, satellite images, Dvorak, QuikSCAT, etc, I think it was pretty easy to guess that Dolly was a category 2 storm. You can't deny the RECON data. Is like going to see The Dark Knight and denying that you saw Batman in the movie.


If there were Category 2 winds (which I believe there were), they would likely have been in a national seashore area, where no one is monitoring. Since it appeared to weaken a bit on the approach, that is my thinking for the 90 kt peak intensity which is supported by the radar estimates at 1500Z.
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Re: For those who have more time....

#18 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 23, 2008 10:07 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here is my thinking for the best track intensities after assessing the radar, Recon, satellite and other data:

20/1200 - 40 kt - 1008mb - Tropical storm
20/1800 - 40 kt - 1008mb
21/0000 - 40 kt - 1007mb
21/0600 - 45 kt - 1005mb
21/1200 - 40 kt - 1006mb
21/1800 - 40 kt - 1004mb
22/0000 - 45 kt - 999mb
22/0600 - 50 kt - 998mb
22/1200 - 55 kt - 993mb
22/1800 - 60 kt - 988mb
23/0000 - 70 kt - 982mb - Hurricane
23/0600 - 75 kt - 978mb
23/1200 - 85 kt - 966mb
23/1800 - 85 kt - 967mb
24/0000 - 70 kt - 977mb
24/0600 - 60 kt - 984mb - Tropical storm
24/1200 - 50 kt - 995mb

23/1500 - 90 kt - 964mb (peak intensity)
21/0600 - 45 kt - 1005mb (Yucatan landfall)
23/1750 - 85 kt - 967mb (Texas landfall)
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Thu Jul 24, 2008 9:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: For those who have more time....

#19 Postby loro-rojo » Thu Jul 24, 2008 12:18 am

TheShrimper wrote:Well Crazy, power outages usually come hand in hand with landfalling hurricanes, yet ground observations have been shown to record wind observations much higher than 100MPH in the past. That said, I think this hurricane was well over hyped wind wise and untill someone comes up with some factual information to verify the posted claim, I am standing on what I say. Again, it is not the first time that this has been blown way out of proportion.


Hyped wind wise? RECON, and radar both supported a 100 mph storm. Also did Dvorak.. and other instruments. If you are going to claim that the winds were exagerated in this storm, you need to prove that with data. The burden of proof is on you, because there is more than enough evidence to prove that the storm was a 100 mph cane.
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Re: For those who have more time....

#20 Postby TampaFl » Thu Jul 24, 2008 6:56 am

From Hurricanetrack.com:

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/



UPDATED: Noon EDT, July 23, 2008
DOLLY POUNDING THE BORDER AREA OF TEXAS AND MEXICO

Hurricane Dolly has shown once again that intensity forecasting still has a long way to go. Winds are now 100 mph as the pressure has dropped all morning long- but hopefully has leveled out now. We have been doing live audio broadcasts here on the homepage which included live information from our friend and colleague Tim Millar of the Cyclone Research Group. Tim is in and around Matamoros, Mexico with a specially equipped SUV complete with a weather station for gathering ground data during the hurricane. [b]We were live when Tim recorded a wind gust to 119 mph and in fact, that observation was indicated in the 11am public advisory from the NHC. [/b]Good job there Tim! Ground data is so important during hurricanes and the more, the better. However, it is not something to take lightly and Tim has the experience to know what he is doing. We are going to try to talk with Tim more around 1:30pm ET here on the homepage. Stay tuned..
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