Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 91L)

#181 Postby **tailgater** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 5:45 pm

Sanibel wrote:The only semblance of a surface spiral that I can see is over by Pensacola. And that isn't too hot either.

I'm not postive it's at the surface but it's got to be very close and looks to be almost directly under MLC.

#182 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 5:49 pm

Still westerly and southern winds in southern Louisiana. Winds would be easterly if there was something at the surface.

galvestontx13 · #183 Postby **galvestontx13** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 5:52 pm

hrmmm, looks intresting.

#184 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 6:01 pm

As you can see by the surface analysis/satellite image below, the mid-level spin is actually located right over a surface ridge/high. Note the anticyclonic rotation on the surface obs off the Louisiana coast. The surface trof has moved inland across south Louisiana/Mississippi today. That's why the convection is diminishing, and that's why development chances are very low. If I had to put a number on it, it wouldn't be zero chance of development, but it's less than 5% and maybe closer to 1-2%.

#185 Postby **tolakram** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 6:10 pm

Latest quikscat shows some shift ...

LaBreeze · #186 Postby **LaBreeze** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 6:20 pm

We had a much needed downpour this afternoon from this thing. The lightning was quite severe and the downdraft before it was really cool. Local mets are saying more rain out of this tomorrow and then it moves inland over SW LA and north and then northeast. The skies sure did get dark with fast moving and ominous clouds before we got the rain here in Vermilion Parish near the coast. Still lots of clouds at the moment. My lawn is happy

#187 Postby **Steve** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 6:21 pm

>>Current Northern GOMEX blob didn't quite make it, maybe the next one can...

Saw that 12z run and found it interesting (shows at the surface and 500mb which were the only two I ran). All I can tell you Ed is that it's probably 75 outside, a little breezy and mostly cloudy. It's got a nice feel after those mid 90's/low 100's days I spent in SW LA this weekend - and compared to yesterday here. Wish on.

Steve

#188 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 6:22 pm

tolakram wrote:Latest quikscat shows some shift ...

The "shift" is clockwise which means there is a surface ridge (or area of high pressure) as wxman57 pointed out.

LaBreeze · #189 Postby **LaBreeze** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 6:24 pm

Have to agree with you Steve. The temperatures outside are quite comfortable right now. The heat had been so oppressive. This was a welcomed rain - just didn't like the popping lightning.

LaBreeze · #190 Postby **LaBreeze** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 6:26 pm

Local mets are saying that we'll replay this type of event again early next week. They are saying possibly a little stronger though. We'll see.

Nimbus · #191 Postby **Nimbus** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 6:30 pm

This area does not have much time to develop before going inland but it could make depression status.

There is also an interesting area of convection off Nicaragua that nobody seems to have noticed or commented on. Looks like an upper level low interacting with a wave. Depressions that form in that area often move into the gulf or over the Yucatan into the BOC. Any model support for that area?

#192 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 6:32 pm

RL3AO wrote:
tolakram wrote:Latest quikscat shows some shift ...

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?423,201

The "shift" is clockwise which means there is a surface ridge (or area of high pressure) as wxman57 pointed out.

Correct, it's a high center, not a low center out there. The feature is aloft. And without surface convergence (the high center is there) it'll be quite difficult to get anything going.

LaBreeze · #193 Postby **LaBreeze** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 6:32 pm

I'm wondering, Nimbus, if the area you are talking about is what our local mets are picking up on and the possibility of it moving into the GOM and enhancing our rain chances as mentioned.

#194 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 6:44 pm

Latest GFS does show an almost identical event starting Saturday night. Storms move SW off the FL panhandle, drift SW-W, then move inland into SE LA Monday night. Development probably unlikely, but probability not zero.

Ed Mahmoud · #195 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 7:07 pm

wxman57 wrote:Latest GFS does show an almost identical event starting Saturday night. Storms move SW off the FL panhandle, drift SW-W, then move inland into SE LA Monday night. Development probably unlikely, but probability not zero.

12Z does close off a 1012 mb low before it moves inland, best I can tell. 1012 isn't all that low, of course.

Doesn't seem to be showing up so well on 18Z GFS.

12Z Euro pinches off something that heads back West towards my lawn, but I wish RH fields depicted were a shade higher.

Dolly dropped (by my estimate, based on radar, Hooks and IAH airport) about an inch of rain, but since, nada, and not much before. An unofficial and unendorsed by Storm2K Ed's Lawn Drought Warning could be issued by this time next week if we don't get some rain.

I should buy a rain gauge, I guess.

#196 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 7:30 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Dolly dropped (by my estimate, based on radar, Hooks and IAH airport) about an inch of rain, but since, nada, and not much before. An unofficial and unendorsed by Storm2K Ed's Lawn Drought Warning could be issued by this time next week if we don't get some rain.

I should buy a rain gauge, I guess.

I measured just about 3" from Dolly here in southwest Houston (Westbury).

Ed Mahmoud · #197 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 7:38 pm

Auger platform, a bit South of the apparent rotation, has an East wind.

Convection is dying.

No chance as a TC.

But I'll hope against hope, that while I'm in Austin tomorrow on business this will somehow trigger some liquid sunshine at my house.

#198 Postby **srainhoutx** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 7:45 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Dolly dropped (by my estimate, based on radar, Hooks and IAH airport) about an inch of rain, but since, nada, and not much before. An unofficial and unendorsed by Storm2K Ed's Lawn Drought Warning could be issued by this time next week if we don't get some rain.

I should buy a rain gauge, I guess.

I measured just about 3" from Dolly here in southwest Houston (Westbury).

Close to 4 inches here. Badly needed, I might add.

Sean in New Orleans · #199 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:11 pm

It appears to definitely have a surface low....I smell a depression by morning, which would be fine by me...give me and my yard a good 5 or 6 inches. Love to have it....

Ed Mahmoud · #200 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:12 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Dolly dropped (by my estimate, based on radar, Hooks and IAH airport) about an inch of rain, but since, nada, and not much before. An unofficial and unendorsed by Storm2K Ed's Lawn Drought Warning could be issued by this time next week if we don't get some rain.

I should buy a rain gauge, I guess.

I measured just about 3" from Dolly here in southwest Houston (Westbury).

Near Veterans and 1960, Spring ISD, Houston mailing address, but living in unincorporated Harris County.

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