Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[KWT]

Yeah not sure why they took its invest tag away, I guess they don't believe its likely to form just yet I suppose?

Also if it does manage to somehow get down to 16N then indeed things will get more interesting but thats a big if to be honest.

[stevetampa33614]

You know, taking a second look at the GOES latest frames. This thing is moving pretty quick. I think in 2-3 days it will be around leewards.

And excellent signature on visible. My God.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Anybody know how fast our Ex-TD is moving?

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well I certainly think it has a good shot of becoming our next named storm possibly (evidence and discussion for my forecast reasoning is provided in several posts above). It's a wait-and-see from here. I suspect the 98L tag will be back on this thing by end-of-day tomorrow.

[Blown Away]

If ex 98L can stay below 20N until it gets to 50W then it may be a player for the islands. Looks like it is moving just slightly N of due W. Based on the TAFB position there must be some WSW movement along the way. Ex 98L is flying rate now w/ the easterlies >20kt's and it's possible the Azore/BH will bully it a little and push WSW. Once it hits warmer water's I don't see anything to keep the convection from building again and if it maintains the circulation then I can see the Invest tag coming back. Gatorcane said it first and the logic makes sense to me. Sunday will be the day.

[Nimbus]

I'm surprised how well it has held together considering the cold SST's and stable air just to the west.

Looked like Bermuda would be the only area the NHC might have to warn, but that 16N at 50w forecast has me scratching my head? I guess they expect ex98L to open up into a pretty shallow wave rather than keep a sharp signature.

The wave in the Caribbean is sharpening up a little and may beat 98L to storm status.

[cycloneye]

The latest:

[Sanibel]

Will it reconvect?

[gatorcane]

Notice the plume of moisture it is starting to tap from the ITCZ several hundred miles further south...and there is a narrow band of moderate showers and a few light T-storms just NW of the low center:

[Gustywind]

Notice the plume of moisture it is starting to tap from the ITCZ several hundred miles further south...and there is a narrow band of moderate showers and a few light T-storms just NW of the low center:

Yeah agree Gatorcane good eye, and i have already put a thread on that did you read it? go to viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102214

[boca]

I'm playing catch up ball with Ex98L and will it continue west or turn NW toards Bermuda. Like gatorcane says its tapping the moisture from the ITCZ.If thisa develops it will be a huge system,but if it does develop will it turn poleward.

[gatorcane]

Yeah agree Gatorcane good eye, and i have already put a thread on that did you read it? go to viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102214

Hi Gustywind, I was talking about ex-98L

[Gustywind]

Yeah agree Gatorcane good eye, and i have already put a thread on that did you read it? go to viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102214

Hi Gustywind, I was talking about ex-98L

Ok no problem Gatorcane tkanks for the info

[blp]

A few hours ago it had 25knot barbs. Also the LLC does not appear to be completely closed or at least that's what I can see because I could not find a zoomed in quickscat.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/oce ... atl_22.png

[kurtpage]

This is as about as good as I could get while sitting here on my notebook....all my graphic programs are on my Mac at home....

[blp]

This is as about as good as I could get while sitting here on my notebook....all my graphic programs are on my Mac at home....

Thanks, still does not appear to be closed.....

[drezee]

This is as about as good as I could get while sitting here on my notebook....all my graphic programs are on my Mac at home....

Thanks, still does not appear to be closed.....

Quiksat is not exactly the "Gospel" it is a tool. Surface obs are also the best judge...

[curtadams]

Sure surface obs are the best, but we don't have them, and ex-98L reverting to an open (if sharp) wave is what you'd expect from the lack of convection. And although there is a little bit of convection now there's not enough to reclose the circulation.

I don't see any moisture coming up from the south. We're looking at the Central Atlantic map, and it's BIG. The apparent convection coming towards it is probably just upper outflow and not really usable moisture; it's not there yet anyway.

[cycloneye]

650
AXNT20 KNHC 312358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 29W
SOUTH OF 22N. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS EXHIBITING A WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ABOUT TWO DEGREES IN DIAMETER WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM NW QUADRANT OF CENTER.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE PRIMARILY TO COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... scussions/

[gatorcane]

The center appears to be moving 265 (so its losing some lattitude gradually) now and the convection is starting to increase right over it. The process is going to be gradual but its on its way. SSTs are around 77-78F and will be gradually increasing to 80-81F by the end of this weekend for it.

The SSTs its going over have increased from 76F to 77.9F over the past 18-24 hours in its current position which explains the boost in convection. Tomorrow at this time it should be hitting the 79F-80F mark so more convection should be present.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[gatorcane]

Question is 98W in WPAC or ex-98L in Atlantic more invest worthy? I took a look at the WPAC invest and I have to say it looks worse than the ex-98L