ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Stormcenter]

Looks like the midlevel is jogging north while the lower level still has a bit of a southward angle.

Yep it does look that way.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

04/1145 UTC 28.3N 90.1W T2.5/2.5 EDOUARD -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Based on the official policy of my business' landlord, Walton Houston Galleria Financial Center, a hurricane warning for tomorrow would mean a free vacation day. So I'm hoping for a hurricane warning (without the verification, of course, I like my trees, lights and central air conditioning).


But unless something surprising happens, I don't see justification for that, and I am unofficially predicting I will be driving on the I-610 West Loop in showers/isolated squalls, on the way to my office, tomorrow morning near sunrise.

[xironman]

It is not going to go until it gets vertically stacked, if that happens in the next 6 hours then you will have a chance for a hurricane.

[Derek Ortt]

the convection is NOT that impressive this morning

looks like a UL dropped just west of the storm... chances of hurricane intensity are decreasing. However, this is a small storm; thus, it is subject to wild fluctuations in intensity

[jabman98]

So far just clear blue skies here in Houston. We got a bit of rain last night - not a whole lot - so there's dew on the grass for a change. Occasional whiff of a breeeze. You'd never guess there was anything brewing in the Gulf without following via TV, computer, whatever.

[KWT]

Derek I guess thats the feature that has been causing the westerly shear over Ed this morning. Equally I don't think it looks that bad either to be honest but you are the pro not me!

T-numbers going suggesting that its getting better organised though right now the numbers do only support minimal TS.

[Sanibel]

The WV loop shows what looks to be a ULL diving to the SW right next to Eduoard. If this is a ULL it will position right next to Eduoard's SW and possibly be a rapid venter right next to the coast:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html


I see Derek also noticed that.

[physicx07]

Yeah, these small systems do tend to confound in the gulf. What was that storm last year that went from nothing to minimal hurricane in like 18 hrs? It needs to stack up though first.

the convection is NOT that impressive this morning

looks like a UL dropped just west of the storm... chances of hurricane intensity are decreasing. However, this is a small storm; thus, it is subject to wild fluctuations in intensity

[Bailey1777]

What is going on? The radar showing MLC? is heading North it looks like

[HURAKAN]

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the radar loop northward motion could be an illusion. As precipitation wraps around the center to the north and as some old precipitation dies out to the centers west, it gives the system the appearance of heading more northward than it actually is. More likely than not, the center is still heading mostly W or WNW. But who knows? I could be wrong.

[Smurfwicked]

Yeah, these small systems do tend to confound in the gulf. What was that storm last year that went from nothing to minimal hurricane in like 18 hrs? It needs to stack up though first.

the convection is NOT that impressive this morning

looks like a UL dropped just west of the storm... chances of hurricane intensity are decreasing. However, this is a small storm; thus, it is subject to wild fluctuations in intensity

That was Humberto pretty much the same general area just coming from a different direction.

[physicx07]

I notice the fix cited in cycloneye's post gives the position a big jog to the north, from 28.1 a little bit ago to 28.3 while longitude is the same. Is this a Dvorak fix or a met. reviewed location fix?

[KWT]

Quite possibly Sanibel its what I thought earlier on as well when I saw that ULL it may help to fan out the system in the end.

Fizz your talking about Humberto, though Lorenzo did the same thing as well later that season.

[Stormcenter]

I think the radar loop northward motion could be an illusion. As precipitation wraps around the center to the north and as some old precipitation dies out to the centers west, it gives the system the appearance of heading more northward than it actually is. More likely than not, the center is still heading mostly W or WNW. But who knows? I could be wrong.

I say it's started the wnw motion the NHC had projected. IMO.

[Sanibel]

I think the radar shows a better eye.

[Dean4Storms]

Just getting up this AM after a long night, looks like our LLC went completely exposed overnight as Derek pointed out yesterday the DMAX did not occur with Edouard, dry air I suspect.

Anyway, looking at this storm this morning it appears our storm is increasing its convective activity at the same time appears to be decoupled/sheared. Between the speed up in forward speed which decreases its time over water, the shear and disorganized look to Edouard I wouldn't expect much more than a Tropical Storm at landfall.

[xironman]

The MLC seems disconnected and heading north on radar, they did not get together again, just like Humberto it is taking a long time to get stacked. But there is convection breaking out all over where I think the LLC is to the south http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... quality=90