My humble interpretation:
There's that disturbance over the Cape Verde Islands moving westward. The water ahead of this is too cool for significant development, and there is also some dry Saharan air in it's general environment:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpgThe models don't want to develop anything out of this in the long term at this point. I don't want to dismiss this system yet and want to see if it can maintain and what it will be like as it approaches the Leewards. Normally something developing this relatively far north at this point in the summer, I'd expect to move more north towards the open Atlantic and be a fish were it to develop. The models though are showing a huge belt of high pressure on the northern edge of the tropics virtually across the entire Atlantic for the next week or so. That would keep things on a westward track across the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa to the Caribbean. So if this disturbance maintains some semblance of identity for a week or so (which the models don't do at all, but things sometimes do), it will be interesting to see what happens when it gets close to the Leeward Islands. I'm going to watch this over the next several days. I think there will be something to watch for longer than the models indicate.
There's a less organized disturbance over the Leeward Islands now. At this point, the models seem to completely wash it out as it moves west-northwest through the Puerto Rico and Hispaniola area over the next few days. In this case, experience of watching these doesn't help me figure out if the depiction of the wave going poof is right or not, so it's a wait and see. It is not a troublesome looking disturbance to me at this point. I don't see any reason to disbelieve the models.
Early next week it looks like a wave or possibly a tropical low may develop over the northern Gulf of Mex and move westward. It looks at this point like it will be very close to the gulf coast and basically bring rain first to Florida on Monday and towards Louisiana and Texas Wed/Thurs. No signif. development seen but it's worth watching, especially if it ends up developing farther to the south more towards the central gulf. This one looks like it would move west until it reaches the Texas waters when it would then veer more towards the northwest. It's always suspect to me seeing a tropical low develop in the models when there's currently nothing but the future models and trends will be worth watching. It doesn't look threatening at this point (nothing out there over the entire basin really does right now).
So to sum it up:Want to watch that east-Atlantic disturbance through early next week to see if it maintains something, and the possible gulf disturbance possibly developing early next week. The gulf disturbance happening would have implications for the northern gulf for at least rain along the southern gulf states, and ultimately more impact in Texas if it happens more in the central gulf. And if it actually comes to fruition, particularly farther south than models show now, Texas would be under the gun towards late next workweek, but that's a big IF right now.
I'm almost ready to drop the wave currently over the Leewards completely off my radar.
What do you all think of these features?
