Large wave in Central Atlantic

[fasterdisaster]

Wow, this actually looks decent. It's survived the SAL but can it survive the shear? Nobody take this the wrong way but, I sure hope so.

[SapphireSea]

Alot of the convective mechanics are there for this, but I guess that's because it's on the ITCZ. Any development though would push this a little north and head into 20kt UL shear, although ML shear is relatively light, it can have some very slow development, should travel W to WNW depending on strength in the short term.

My own opinion and speculation says this has < 5% chance of development into anything significant through 120 hours.

[Blown Away]

Alot of the convective mechanics are there for this, but I guess that's because it's on the ITCZ. Any development though would push this a little north and head into 20kt UL shear, although ML shear is relatively light, it can have some very slow development, should travel W to WNW depending on strength in the short term.

My own opinion and speculation says this has < 5% chance of development into anything significant through 120 hours.

The TAFB has this low at 11N/41W in 24 hours, that means they expect this low to gain some latitude and break away from the ITCZ.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
This low has maintained this ball of convection for most of the day, persistent, and if this convection is maintained through tomorrow I give this low a 50/50 chance to become an invest tomorrow. I think this low will ride just below the shear.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[banksmanforever]

This could be a major player down the road ... the islands should watch this

[StormTracker]

This could be a major player down the road ... the islands should watch this

Trust me, it will be! It's that time of year, and we ain't seen nothing yet!!!

[GeneratorPower]

Has no model support, however. Looking at the 18z GFS it doesn't even pick it up. I fact the first thing it does pick up is in about 5 days off the coast of Africa. I'm not convinced that these models pick up on genesis every time, but they sure have a good track record this year.

[coreyl]

What kind of conditions is this wave going to be encountering in the next few days?

[Mecklenburg]

This could be a major player down the road ... the islands should watch this

Trust me, it will be! It's that time of year, and we ain't seen nothing yet!!!

i don't think so, it will just go poof just like the others... perhaps we will not have another named storm till september

[fasterdisaster]

This could be a major player down the road ... the islands should watch this

Trust me, it will be! It's that time of year, and we ain't seen nothing yet!!!

i don't think so, it will just go poof just like the others... perhaps we will not have another named storm till september

That's absolutely ridiculous. I will film myself dancing in a tutu in centre city if there isn't another named storm this month. I PROMISE.

[catastrophic]

its looking good holding convection

[SouthFloridawx]

[southerngale]

This could be a major player down the road ... the islands should watch this

Trust me, it will be! It's that time of year, and we ain't seen nothing yet!!!

i don't think so, it will just go poof just like the others... perhaps we will not have another named storm till september

"go poof just like the others"

Why do you say things like this? We've already had FIVE named storms and it's ONLY August 6th. The average date to get the fifth named storm is September 5th. (based on 1944-2005)

Do some research on past seasons. 2008 has been a very busy season so far.

[Honeyko]

I will film myself dancing in a tutu in centre city if there isn't another named storm this month. I PROMISE.

Do NOT tempt the fates.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 37W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING W AT
20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLASSIC INVERTED-V SIGNATURE
...AND THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SHOWS A BULGE OF MOISTURE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS A LARGE AREA FROM 5N-23N BETWEEN
34W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM
7N-10N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

[Gustywind]

THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 37W TO BE A GOOD SOURCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
:?....: maybe some rain for the islands if this trend continues before it crosses the carib islands , should it verifies first but that's good news for us after the litlle drought persisting in some carib islands ....let's see that

[Blown Away]

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

That's absolutely ridiculous. I will film myself dancing in a tutu in centre city if there isn't another named storm this month. I PROMISE.

Can I make up a sandwich board for you - a la Die Hard 3? Thats Downtown Miami - with a trip through Overtown right?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Kind of OT, but if the blob over Colombia got back over water, I think it could be a player.

In fact, I suspect it will be, but probably as an EastPac system.

[Sanibel]

Atlantic has gone into a dry phase again.

That South American wave is interesting. Like an overland ITCZ flare up that forgot to go more north.

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8split.jpg

How could a wave develop in this dry area ?