Long Range Models

[Duddy]

Model agreement from mid-range to la la land. Amazing.

Invests by Sunday night. IMHO.

[Stratosphere747]

[cycloneye]

A Major hurricane in the Leeward Islands.06z GFS.



Landfall in the Carolinas:

[Mecklenburg]

A Major hurricane in the Leeward Islands.06z GFS.



Landfall in the Carolinas:

now i'm really confused which wave is which, since 92L is first upgraded, wouldn't that be the one that's headed for carolinas?

[RL3AO]

now i'm really confused which wave is which, since 92L is first upgraded, wouldn't that be the one that's headed for carolinas?

The one the GFS has going into the Carolinas is the wave just to the SW of Cape Verde.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 101014
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
614 AM AST SUN AUG 10 2008

A SECOND AND STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR 40 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...COMPUTER MODELS ARE SHOWING A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER DURING BOTH DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 18KTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE TODAY.

[Gustywind]

000
AGXX40 KNHC 100539
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
CARIBBEAN...
GFS IS DEVELOPING THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 26W AND TRACKS IT
TOWARD THE TROP N ATLC ZONE LATE IN THE WEEK. ECMWF SHOWS SOME
DEVELOPMENT TO THE WAVE FARTHER W NEAR 42W AND MOVES A WEAK
SYSTEM INTO THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. WHILE BOTH OF THESE WAVES
ARE SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION...ITS TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN EITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

[DanKellFla]

Well, I sure spoke too soon!!!

[HUC]

Hello,all. The time is now for looking carefully to the east ,in direction of Mama Africa....The CV season begin,climatologically speaking around the 15th of August,for 6 weeks or so!!!!
IMO,the wave around 45°west seems to organised better than the one near 30° west,this one that Gfs bring over the Leeward,in 5-6 days. So i put the first ons greater chances of developping and passed over the Winward (it travel also more quickly than the second ).
Anyway,a very interestig situation,and a lot of fun for hurricane chasers... But certainly an other story if ,if a hurricane struck our areas !!!

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
GFS loop thru 114 hours


wave behind 92L approaching the islands

500 mb steup

[canetracker]

144 hr 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_144l.gif


144 hr coming closer to the islands. The GFS definitely likes the wave behind 92L and notice whats behind it.

[Scorpion]

Yes looks like its going to be a long month ahead of us.

['CaneFreak]

poorly initialized run of the GFS in my opinion...92L should develop and the others that are lagging behind should develop much much slower...

[canetracker]

168 hr the high is letting it move more north per 500 mb below

[Derek Ortt]

first 0 or 12Z run in a while that lets this turn north of the islands

[cycloneye]

Its in the mentioned a lot in Message boards the Hebert box of 20n-60w.Lets see where it goes from there.

[canetracker]

500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_192l.gif



500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_240l.gif

[canetracker]

East Coast bound @ 288 hr


300 hr

[canetracker]

312 hours

The loops thru 384hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

and the 500 mb loop:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_500_lu_loop.shtml

[canetracker]

The 00z should be interesting to see if the weakness in the ridge keeps stearing the wave behind 92L east coast bound and to see if the GFS finally gets a better handle on 92L.