ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

#521 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 8:55 am

Could it be that 92 and 93 are just to close for any development? It is really close. If 92 slowed up any at all 93 would over take 92.

#522 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 8:57 am

Too close?

One is around 48W and the other near 30W. 18 * 60 = 1080 nautical miles

Sanibel · #523 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 8:58 am

The convection is connected. It could be that 93 is stealing the energy from 92 and we'll see 93 form.

#524 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:01 am

Okay that make since to me.

#525 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:13 am

There is no connection. Major disorganization with this system.

Sanibel · #526 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:19 am

We could still see 92L form. As always, the systems are the best indicators of conditions. We could see favorability flash on and deeper convection form.

boca · #527 Postby **boca** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:22 am

Sanibel wrote:We could still see 92L form. As always, the systems are the best indicators of conditions. We could see favorability flash on and deeper convection form.

Sanibel remember on satelite last night it looked circular and it had good symmetry. Today its looks like a typical north/south wave.I don't think its going to develop and if it does I like my crow well done.

ConvergenceZone · #528 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:23 am

Derek Ortt wrote:may be time to start looking elsewhere... and even the system to the east is losing model support

Wow, I blew this one big time then..I thought for sure this would develop. Oh well. This season is a head scratcher for me, I just dont get it........Had the conditions been really bad around these waves I would have thought differently, but the conditions, although not perfect, weren't that bad....Perhaps my original prediction about it not getting going until the end of August or the beginning of September was right on afterall..... This is unbelievable....
Oh well........back to square one..... I think you are right about this Derek..

#529 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:23 am

It appears that there is something spinning around under the southern half of that ball of convection, but there is like zero inflow...I agree with derek and wxman...might be about time too look elsewhere.

boca · #530 Postby **boca** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:25 am

The NHC had this as a high probability of development too. What happened?

#531 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:26 am

In Orlando this week and just today got a chance to get on the web to check out 92. Looks to me to be nothing more than a TW this am and I don't see any LLC that's for sure. Convection appears to be limited, but we see these pulses often out in the Atlantic with these Waves so I wouldn't write it off by any means at this point.

#532 Postby **deltadog03** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:27 am

I dunno boca....I am not saying its not going to develop, but its going to have to fight....Trouble is...once it gets near the islands, the pattern looks much more favorable...

Sanibel · #533 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:27 am

Conditions weren't like Dolly. There was no deep convection in the ITCZ to the south. The visible shot shows clear dry air to the south of 92L. That's a killer choke of dry air for a system needing a moist southern inflow. But August equatorial air isn't really "Dry". The only thing you can say is look for refire tonight during diurnal max.

I think 92L looks like 99L. Which is self-explanatory.

Extremeweatherguy · #534 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:30 am

deltadog03 wrote:I dunno boca....I am not saying its not going to develop, but its going to have to fight....Trouble is...once it gets near the islands, the pattern looks much more favorable...

Yeah, once this gets closer to the islands it wouldn't surprise me to see a re-fire. Strong waves like this during mid August always need to be watched closely.

boca · #535 Postby **boca** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:33 am

I can honestly say I don't know what 92L and 93L are going to do. Sanibel made a good point about the southerly inflow which is choking the system.I guess we might have to wait till 11pm or so tonight. :roll:

Ed Mahmoud · #536 Postby **Ed Mahmoud** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:34 am

It had a closed circulation yesterday, but after intense staring, the low cloud swirl trailing the convection is gone, and while it seems to have a twist, low cloud elements just South of the convection do not have a West to East motion.

It is a tropical wave now.

6Z GFDL seems to have initialized it a tad too strong, but it maintains it near steady state, and keeps it just North of the Greater Antilles, so even if it doesn't develop today or tomorrow, it'll be a feature to watch, and by staying shallow, it may avoid the EC trough.

On the other hand, the 6Z GFDL sees shear getting more hostile in time...

OK, this post has some model stuff in it, but I think it is more of a discussion of the wave itself, not the models.

#537 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 9:54 am

11/1145 UTC 11.4N 47.5W TOO WEAK 92L

#538 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:07 am

12Z NAM

Appears a bit stronger this run towards the end with eyes set on the bahamas..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

alienstorm · #539 Postby **alienstorm** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:11 am

If you look at High Resolution visible loop http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
the actual mid level or low level circulation is east of the mass of clouds. Apparently it went thru some easterly shear and dry air intrusion and this cause the system to lose all identity. It will be interesting to see this afternoon how it progresses. It still seems to be fighting easterly shear.

#540 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:14 am

The link is not working for me.

ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

Re:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

Re:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

Who is online