ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Blown Away]

Not too long before it moves out of the area of shear and into an area of slightly more moist air too.

Nice graphic, good point.

[cycloneye]

57,how does the average person know by looking at sat pics if a circulation is at the surface or at mid levels?

[Derek Ortt]

not going to be in AF recon range it appears today

[Aquawind]

not going to be in AF recon range it appears today

Dang..so close. What if the NHC begs them? lol hands n knees kinda stuff..

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Maybe pojo can answer this.Are there any planes in Barbados as in the past some missions haved departed from there?

[HURAKAN]

Ready. Scroll down

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TPC thinking.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I think if the GFDL model model holds up and this system forms then I think that central and north florida "COULD" be under the gun and IF this happens model pans out!!!!!!!!!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The system is starting to look pretty good this morning. If convection continues, then I think a LLC will build down to the surface later today and we could be looking at a depression within 24-48 hours.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MWatkins]

Waiting to see if that convection to the SW of the apparent (at least) mid level center will either die down or develop into a band. Hard to consolidate a circulation when there is competition for upward motion. Plus...upward motion in a semi-linear appearance argues against having a well-defined circulation.

Going to be interesting to watch today...but I agree with Ortt here. Too far away for recon, that mission will get bumped to tomorrow.

MW

[bvigal]

Well, I must admit to being totally confused now! We have a red circle from NHC. We have "too weak" for dvorak. We have different surface maps from different branches of NOAA. I think even the experts could honestly say "we really don't know what this will do".

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.gif - (6z) moving almost due west, toward Guadeloupe, 1008 to 1007mb in 6hrs. Model guidance 6z puts motion at 325 degrees true! Look at that surface map arrow - NO WAY it's EVEN CLOSE to 325degrees.

Here's the most interesting thing I found this morning. Between this low and the islands, still a big wad of dry air, shown on precipitable water through 6z. Maybe it's this, not shear, that's hampering what would otherwise be expected development?

[boca]

Mike do you think 92L will be a possible threat to Florida next week?

[hurricanefloyd5]

Mike do you think 92L will be a possible threat to Florida next week?

I can help you with that!!!!!!! IMHO I think that it could threaten florida!!!!!!!!!!

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't even look at models when there is an invest. Especially when the is no LLC. Just a broad low. Until a center is located and the shear relaxes. I see not a heck of alot with 92L. You can see the shear on most sat. loops. From the South. Were just getting in to the favorable area of the MJO. Lots more invest coming.

[Meso]

bvigal, you're right about the dry air.But it's been a combination of both dry air and shear during the past 12 hours or so, as the system was heads into an area of some 30kt shear, which didn't look like it was going to last too long, one was able to see the cloud tops being ripped on the visible loops. Dry air has been a problem with this storm for a while and I have a feeling it will do a lot better once it passed the heaviest area of dry air, and into the lower shear.

[Derek Ortt]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

very little low level convergence this morning

[storms in NC]

I think if the GFDL model model holds up and this system forms then I think that central and north florida "COULD" be under the gun and IF this happens model pans out!!!!!!!!!!!

Could be but it will change a few times run after run of the models JMO would be a turn on out to sea.

[caribepr]

I'd say confusion could be the word of the morning, bvigal! But I do like the models, whether I trust them or not!

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031815.GIF



Based on the loop above, a circulation, likely ML, is located near the dot.

[deltadog03]

I agree, no need for recon today.. Just dosn't look like anything is SFC right now, plus too far for the airplanes.