ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Aric Dunn]

Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner for the best looking Invest ever:
92L

This is the best-looking TD I've ever seen, and few TS are better in appearance.

If this is a TD...it is barely a TD. Looking at hi-res vis loops tells me that if there is a closed LLC...it is out near 18/63 and not under the MLC. There are clearly SE and S winds on the west side of the convective blob...and they are not light.

That does not mean this system can't pull itself together quickly and the center dive down to the sfc form the mid levels...but right now...it looks much more impressive than it actually is.

Also...for those who keep wondering why the NHC is not upgrading...please...take a good look at a hi-res loop (and not form the SSD site either...that's not hi-res). You will be hard pressed to find a LLC or anything that suggests it. The low level cu field has the motion of a sharp tropical wave. It doesn't mean it can't happen in a couple of hours...but it doesn't appear to be happening now.

Thats what i've been trying to tell everyone.. lol
maybe they will listen to you..

[fci]

Wouldn't it be cool if this invest gose straight to Hurricane cause it looks so well orginized!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sorry, it would not be the least bit cool to me or anyone else in its path.

[KWT]

Clearly Aric there is just a lot of uncertainty, I personally can't see kack all there (maybe because of how patchtic it may be if its there) and neither can derek nor wxman57 nor does the Dvorak...but really who knows!

Personally looking at the recon data thus far I find it hard to believe we have a LLC now, despite the powerful MLC presently.

[msbee]

News Release



Written by Roddy Heyliger, Government Information Service (GIS), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, St. Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net;



For Immediate Release: Thursday, August 14, 2008/N116



11.30AM



Office of Disaster Management & Preparedness says to exercise caution during possible localized flooding conditions



GREAT BAY, St. Maarten (GIS) – The Office of Disaster Management & Preparedness (ODMP) is advising the public to exercise a level of caution due to the possibility of localized flooding in low lying areas known to be prone to flooding, from heavy rains and gusty winds that are expected within the next 24-36 hours due to the passing of an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave.



In the coming weeks the island will experience from time to time Tropical Waves that can cause localized flooding in low lying areas.



Motorists while driving should exercise caution during heavy rainfall.



# # #



Roddy Heyliger

St. Maarten Government Information Service (GIS)

finally! they issue something here! better late than never I guess.
the strange thing is right now there is absolutely nothing happening right now and it looks like it is right over us.
It is very still, partly cloudy skies, no wind, no rain, and even a little sun now and then.
Barbara

[gatorcane]

cloud tops warming:

[deltadog03]

first comes first. We need recon to confirm if we have a llc. Also everyone in the islands please finish all plans quickly and be safe!!!!

[msbee]

Wouldn't it be cool if this invest gose straight to Hurricane cause it looks so well orginized!!!!!!!!!!!!!

yea, very cool, since it's sitting right over me. what a thing to say!

[littlevince]

Radar loop (15:00-17:00z)

[jlauderdal]

hurricanefloyd5......it's not so cool when you're in it's path.....

hurricane floyd has been in the path before so he knows what he is in for, he wants a storm he can have it, besides he is in orlando

[BatzVI]

Though it may not warrant an upgrade, I believe the residents of the NE Caribbean should have a STDS since this "appears" to be more than just your average rainstorm....lots of people here need to prepare boats, etc....also, with the threat of lot of rain, mudslides, flash floods, etc can occur....not trying to ruffle any feathers, but it just seems there should've been a statement.....The local office in San Juan did issue a special statement.....but I'm still surprised that there wasn't one on the main website with the close proximity to land....

[Blown Away]

Though it may not warrant an upgrade, I believe the residents of the NE Caribbean should have a STDS since this "appears" to be more than just your average rainstorm....lots of people here need to prepare boats, etc....also, with the threat of lot of rain, mudslides, flash floods, etc can occur....not trying to ruffle any feathers, but it just seems there should've been a statement.....The local office in San Juan did issue a special statement.....but I'm still surprised that there wasn't one on the main website with the close proximity to land....

I agree 100%, they issued a STDS when 92L was 1000 miles away and did not look as good as it does now. I feel the NHC may not issues a STDS because they are very sure this is a TD/TS and will upgrade in a few hours once they confirm w/ recon.

[Steve]

Agreed AFM. Colorized infrareds are the bane of tropical watchers. Just when someone thinks they've got the answers, they realize that there was some convergence or divergence or whatever with some adjacent feature, and suddendly "put a fork in it" comments come out - usually just prior to the next explosion closer to the truer and at a lower level center. We see that year in and year out, but often it's the same posters who are the guiltiest. Strange.

For everyone near to the path of the invest, the NHC specifically states: "This system could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Northern Leeward Islands...Puerto Rico...and Hispaniola during the next day or two."

Steve

[cycloneye]

first comes first. We need recon to confirm if we have a llc. Also everyone in the islands please finish all plans quickly and be safe!!!!

I am doing all the preparations to secure my house.

[gatorcane]

I am noticing a SE-NW orientation of the high clouds as of late...could indicate a more WNW movement will be underway later this afternoon. It may be feeling the trough over Florida and out into the Atlantic already...I could be wrong though.

[Chacor]

Still no obs from Air Force recon which was meant to leave 21 minutes ago.

[Canelaw99]

I just wanted to interject for a second and remind everyone (as it seems we're in for a roller coaster few days) to take a deep breath. For those in the islands, this may become an immediate threat and we all need to remember that. For everyone, we need to remember that it's hard to understand a person's meaning just by reading the words. You can't get a tone just by reading a post. We need to remember that some people say things without thinking and we can't be offended by everything, but we also have to be sensitive to those that are dealing with bad weather situations too.

K...just wanted to get that off my chest.

On topic: WOW it's looking good today...I'm amazed. And I'm not happy to see how those waters near the Bahamas can support one nasty storm...oy LOL

[bvigal]

Wouldn't it be cool if this invest gose straight to Hurricane cause it looks so well orginized!!!!!!!!!!!!!

yeah and my best wishes to you, too buddy...

as I take a break from bringing in chairs, cusions, glass bottles, giant hurricane lanterns, small grills, etc, on a property I'm housesitting, wondering when I have time to do the other one and my own, stuff not necessary for under 50kts, but can't be done once the wind arrives and is stronger. by the time NHC tells us, they won't need a plane, we'll be able to tell them, LOL

[NEXRAD]

I am noticing a SE-NW orientation of the high clouds as of late...could indicate a more WNW movement will be underway later this afternoon. It may be feeling the trough over Florida and out into the Atlantic already...I could be wrong though.

The more NW elongation is due to the upper flow about the large upper low/upper trough region situated over Eastern Cuba. This is more evident on the full Atlantic view IRWV imagery. That 92L is moving farther away from a second upper low over the Central Atlantic may be playing a roll, too, since the tropical disturbance is having less effect from southward flow about the western peripheries of that Central Atlantic low now, too.

- Jay

[Honeyko]

If this is a TD...it is barely a TD. Looking at hi-res vis loops tells me that if there is a closed LLC...it is out near 18/63 and not under the MLC.

Anybody tracking an on-the-edge sloppy-looking LLC is going to get faked out. I say (in my furry unofficial jaguar capacity) that the MLC is going to close off an eyewall radar signature at around 700mb, then bomb straight to the surface in an hour, just like Dolly did near the northeast tip of the Yucatan while planes were futilely investing a dying swirl southwest of it.

first comes first. We need recon to confirm....

"Confirm" is exactly that: confirm. That does not mean that an LLC or a TD or aTS could not already be occurring, or even have been since sunrise.

Tropical systems aren't strange-quarks or Schrodinger's cats: They do exist in whatever state they are in independent of our examinations of them.

[gtsmith]

Wouldn't it be cool if this invest gose straight to Hurricane cause it looks so well orginized!!!!!!!!!!!!!

yeah and my best wishes to you, too buddy...

as I take a break from bringing in chairs, cusions, glass bottles, giant hurricane lanterns, small grills, etc, on a property I'm housesitting, wondering when I have time to do the other one and my own, stuff not necessary for under 50kts, but can't be done once the wind arrives and is stronger. by the time NHC tells us, they won't need a plane, we'll be able to tell them, LOL

Best of luck bvigal...i hope this one passes you by with nothing but a cooling breeze.