ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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ConvergenceZone
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Re:

#2741 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:22 pm

Frank2 wrote:Some posters earlier observed that the LLC might be west of the convection based on the recon winds found in the first leg - it might be (thought the low cloud lines did really seem to indicate that), and, if that's true, then it's not nearly as potent as many thought...

We'll see...


Well, I don't think it's as potent as it's appearing, otherwise it would have been upgraded to a strong tropical storms(based upon the past appearances of other tropical stystems)...So with that said, I think that it's VERY VERY VERY close to a tropical depression is all...sometime today it should get declared.
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Re: Re:

#2742 Postby NEXRAD » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:23 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Yeah but the "money" models are the ones the NHC pays the most attention to and
those are the one that have it along the Florida east coast.


Recall that this morning the GFDL, HWRF, et al. had 92L's eventual track much farther east, offshore Florida's East Coast. Simply put, there's little validity in a single set of model guidance for any tropical cyclone this far out. If tomorrow at this time the models have gone through another 4 cycles without changing much, then there might be something to the outputs. Otherwise, only a general trend of the model composite has any forecast relevence.

- Jay
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2743 Postby mf_dolphin » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:27 pm

ADMIN Note: Please place all personal forecasts for this system in the new stickied thread.

Thank you!
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2744 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:28 pm

cpdaman wrote:frank your last two posts appear to me to be well past the border of wishful thinking


hehe, yea. can't blame Frank for that though. I know that Frank has been through a lot storm wise, and it's always better to hope a storm isn't going to form as opposed to thinking it will, although at the same time, always good to be prepared. ...My thinking is like this too...I"m always wanting recurves, because then I can hope for a stronger storm, and I find myself sometimes seeing conditions that will cause it to recurve that don't actually exist....
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#2745 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:30 pm

This system just so happens to be the most bizzare one i have seen. ever ..

I mean come on how is that midlevel circ sustaining itself so long and whats the deal with llc, the convergence around that thing is almost zero.

everything in the rule book says some should have taken over either the midlevel work down or convection fire around the low thing..

oh well thats the tropics i guess.
I sit here and track everything and analize the system all day but its giving me a run for my money interms of trying to figure the dynamics thats going on right now..
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#2746 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:31 pm

I have a gut feeling..nope just gas. All better. :cheesy:
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#2747 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:35 pm

Aric, there probably is a circulation forming in the deep convection where the MLC is, recon did find SW winds, not nearly enough obviously to close it off but a sure sign something maybe trying to slowly work its way down.

Also T-numbers are still slowly going up, without a LLC it is indeed true they don't matter but they do give a fair indication of what the likely windspeeds are for this at the moment.
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#2748 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:35 pm

that llc has been covered by clounds now.. so we must wait and see if convection will fire now that it is within the area of more lift. i guess it is possible that all the convection that the midlevel circ is producing was causing some substance earlier.. possibly why no deep convection was forming over the low..

that might be changing..
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2749 Postby Zip » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:35 pm

One strange tropical storm, which later became a cat 5, was stripped of almost all convection, and reduced to a mid level circulation with an astonishingly high pressure of 1017, before getting its act together and dogging west under a strong high pressure ridge..

That was Andrew.

Never say never in the tropics.
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Re:

#2750 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:37 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:This system just so happens to be the most bizzare one i have seen. ever ..

I mean come on how is that midlevel circ sustaining itself so long and whats the deal with llc, the convergence around that thing is almost zero.

everything in the rule book says some should have taken over either the midlevel work down or convection fire around the low thing..

oh well thats the tropics i guess.
I sit here and track everything and analize the system all day but its giving me a run for my money interms of trying to figure the dynamics thats going on right now..

Well that signals to me that the new llc is developing now. bursts continue, and low clouds continue to hint at the development of the new llc. Its only a matter of hours, Aric.
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Re:

#2751 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:38 pm

KWT wrote:Aric, there probably is a circulation forming in the deep convection where the MLC is, recon did find SW winds, not nearly enough obviously to close it off but a sure sign something maybe trying to slowly work its way down.

Also T-numbers are still slowly going up, without a LLC it is indeed true they don't matter but they do give a fair indication of what the likely windspeeds are for this at the moment.


my thinking at this moment is that we will not get a center to form under the midlevel but rather the llc thing that is getting over taken now will just tuck under the convection and new convection begin to fire here shortly over that swirl..
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2752 Postby Canelaw99 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:38 pm

Zip wrote:One strange tropical storm, which later became a cat 5, was stripped of almost all convection, and reduced to a mid level circulation with an astonishingly high pressure of 1017, before getting its act together and dogging west under a strong high pressure ridge..

That was Andrew.

Never say never in the tropics.



:sick: Shhhh....let's just not go there LOL
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2753 Postby NEXRAD » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:39 pm

Several large outflow boundaries have recently emerged from the convection well north of the main cluster. I'd expect that the activity north of the main convective cluster will weaken or dissipate over the next 6-hours.

- Jay
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2754 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:40 pm

NEXRAD wrote:Several large outflow boundaries have recently emerged from the convection well north of the main cluster. I'd expect that the activity north of the main convective cluster will weaken or dissipate over the next 6-hours.

- Jay


Wow. Great image.

Image
Last edited by RL3AO on Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2755 Postby txag2005 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:41 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:
Zip wrote:One strange tropical storm, which later became a cat 5, was stripped of almost all convection, and reduced to a mid level circulation with an astonishingly high pressure of 1017, before getting its act together and dogging west under a strong high pressure ridge..

That was Andrew.

Never say never in the tropics.



:sick: Shhhh....let's just not go there LOL


I will never forget Andrew. I lived in Homestead as a child, and I remember seeing images of the neighborhood I lived in being completely destroyed.

It definitely makes me wonder how anyone could want a Category 5 to hit.
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#2756 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:41 pm

Possibly Aric, I think we may have a little issue with multiple centers eventually, the MLC is catching up the LLC so they probably will merger eventually but I bet by that point the MLC has its own LLC as well. We need to keep a very close eye on the Vis.imagery for the enxt 6hrs to see what happens, very interesting stuff though!!
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2757 Postby txwatcher91 » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:42 pm

NEXRAD wrote:Several large outflow boundaries have recently emerged from the convection well north of the main cluster. I'd expect that the activity north of the main convective cluster will weaken or dissipate over the next 6-hours.

- Jay


That is typical of "feeder bands."
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Derek Ortt

#2758 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:43 pm

but those outflow boundaries, unfortunately, are not from the main convective core
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Western Atlantic

#2759 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:45 pm

well i just mentioned it a min ago. then this image came in..
notice the convection beginning to fire near that llc that is cricled in red.....

lets see what happens could be the beginning of it..

possibly what might happen as well is that the MLC may start to weaken if convection fires farther west over that llc..

Image
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#2760 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:46 pm

Yep exactly Derek, if you want to see a system decay you really want to see a big outflow ejected from the main convection, got a feeling the convection won't be weakening nearly as much as it has done in previous days this time round.
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