ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[tolakram]

Ugh hes following the mlc. Dont make his mistake. this is moving at like 280 right now. the mlc just went south to meet the llc. wnw motion should return soon. This may catch the NE side of PR, but I DO NOT see this going over DR.

why dont people listen to me? Ive said this about the mlc like 10 freaking times.

I heard you but your tone is so rude I tried to ignore it. Give it a rest would ya.

If the MLC is coming down to meet the LLC, which we do NOT know exists at the moment, then this phantom LLC is further south than expected. IF that is true then impact with the islands is more probable. Now you tell me what you know about this LLC that the rest of us don't. All I've ever seen is an aircraft finding a swirl a few hours ago.

[Stormcenter]

Jim Cantore Said that all these models are wrong on a WNW track he says this will go WSW into the carribean.

hhhhhhmmmmmmmmm........

Ultimately it still will turn......the key is how close to Florida does it get when it does,

[Sanibel]

Uh, not north of the islands like I said. The ridge obviously grabbed it and sent it more south and right at the majors. If this small system doesn't crash it worries me that this new track is closer to the west leaning models that take it closer to us on the Florida west coast.

[HURAKAN]

[Javlin]

Jim Cantore Said that all these models are wrong on a WNW track he says this will go WSW into the carribean.

hhhhhhmmmmmmmmm........

Ugh hes following the mlc. Dont make his mistake. this is moving at like 280 right now. the mlc just went south to meet the llc. wnw motion should return soon. This may catch the NE side of PR, but I DO NOT see this going over DR.

why dont people listen to me? Ive said this about the mlc like 10 freaking times.

That might be so but the little eddy?weak center? have been moving due W all day an din the last couple of frames of VS sat you could still see that guy out front going S of PR.I think the guy is maybe a little more educated than that,I would think?

[Just Joshing You]

Just a question, but is 'eddy' your guys' new favorite word or something? I can remember going weeks without reading it here, and then all of a sudden, everyone is throwing Eddies around like it's a Category 1042 Hurricane making landfall on the Lost City of Atlantis...

[boca]

Uh, not north of the islands like I said. The ridge obviously grabbed it and sent it more south and right at the majors. If this small system doesn't crash it worries me that this new track is closer to the west leaning models that take it closer to us on the Florida west coast.

Sanibel did you see the latest models have this curving north on the eastern most bahama islands and moving NNE at that point.I don't know what to believe.

[NEXRAD]

Looking at the steering flow, I don't see how anyone could expect a WSW movement for this system unless it's expected to be very shallow. The deep convection certainly is enough to allow mid and upper level steering to be a factor, and if the system were to drop farther south (say south of Puerto Rico) it would eventually be picked up by the flow about the ULL to the west, eventually depositing the system in the SW Atlantic. As for the convective movements, they're precisely what I described would likely happen earlier today. Simply put, a convective reorganization occured with the eastern convective cluster dissipating and a secondary convective cluster becoming dominant farther west. As this occured the mid level center associated with the original mesoconvective cluster dissipated or merged with the newer MCS. Overnight the disturbance will progress west or west-northwest with the bulk of the activity eventually moving across the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

- Jay

[wxman57]

Surface obs put the center near 18.4N/65.5W. South winds at BVI (5kts) and north winds at San Juan (5 kts). Estimated surface pressure between the two stations 1011mb. Maybe a tad higher pressure.All convection still east of the center.

[HURAKAN]

We must remember that computer models are assuming that a LLC is established. Which is incorrect at this point. Any mathematical equation that starts with an error is bound to finish with a greater error.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just a question, but is 'eddy' your guys' new favorite word or something? I can remember going weeks without reading it here, and then all of a sudden, everyone is throwing Eddies around like it's a Category 1042 Hurricane making landfall on the Lost City of Atlantis...

I haven't used eddy or "Eddie" since the last Texas TC...

[Javlin]

Just a question, but is 'eddy' your guys' new favorite word or something? I can remember going weeks without reading it here, and then all of a sudden, everyone is throwing Eddies around like it's a Category 1042 Hurricane making landfall on the Lost City of Atlantis...

It's a small vortex sometimes a developing systems spit out when they have mutiple centers.Its just the one we are seeing has been quite persistent and the general area the NHC has been looking at,for the most part.

[deltadog03]

I see new convection starting to fire up near the LLC....(Well just NW of it) I think we might see the flare up (btwn the islands) die off and come back towards that new convection. Thats where the low level convergence is...

[Just Joshing You]

I know what an eddy is, but it seems a lot of people have been using it, and few using it correctly. Not just this storm.. go read the last 200 pages of Dolly

[tpr1967]

Seems to me this looks like a t-wave with a low on it. With a mid level low center. Not saying it can't develop but this has had good conditions all day long and it still hasn't developed.
just my opinion.

[BigA]

I know what an eddy is, but it seems a lot of people have been using it, and few using it correctly. Not just this storm.. go read the last 200 pages of Dolly

In this case, wasn't eddy a reference to an area of warmer water?

[tolakram]

Surface obs put the center near 18.4N/65.5W. South winds at BVI (5kts) and north winds at San Juan (5 kts). Estimated surface pressure between the two stations 1011mb. Maybe a tad higher pressure.All convection still east of the center.

Good grief, so right off the coast of PR?

[bahamaswx]

92L can take her sweet time getting her act together. All I need is some rain.

[HURAKAN]

[orion]

Looks like it is going to take a more southern path over PR than I expected. I also thought it would sort of scoot by just north of Hispaniola, but looking like that could be more inland than I expected too. But... very hard to tell until they get a good center fix and more significant surface features - which could be happening now as I believe Derek pointed out with some convergence showing up. It looks good on sat and convection seems to be expanding still... but it sure isn't showing us much on radar, at least not yet. I think we'll have to wait until it gets beyond the islands before the models get a better grip on what 92 will do. As Hurakan said, without reliable initialization of the models, they are not going to help us much... any small initial position errors just get magnified into huge errors as they crunch the numbers to predict future positions.

For those interested, I do have the PR radar loop with metars/buoys/ships overlaid on the vis sat image (ir at night) on my site. Maybe it will show us more as 92L approaches PR in the next few hours.

http://orionweather.net/index.php?content=radar.html

For our friends on the islands... stay safe and keep us posted.