ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Yeah Nexrad looking at the radar loop again I see what your talking about, as AFM best turning on the radar does appear to be in the Mona passage, not that far from land anyway.

[rockyman]

Just a heads up--we're discussing the new GFS (12z) in the Models thread...shows system over JAMAICA in 36 hours

[boca]

What the chances of this going south of Cuba and head into the GOM?

[KWT]

Nobody can answer that question yet...because 92L hasn't decided what it wants to be. I think its going right over the back of Hispaniola. It will remain an open wave (although it may be closed for sometime today until that interaction)...until it clears Cuba. It is way too early to say. One thing I do think...I don't think it will get caught by the shortwave.

In that case sounds like your going for a much greater chance of a GoM hit, maybe like the CMC from the sounds of things or maybe the UKMO, which still has a Florida hit followed by it heading towards the gulf.

[cpdaman]

high confidence .. in the location of the center

How is that the center according to radar? The echoes south of that location are moving west...as are the echoes north of it. If it is anywhere...it is in the Mona Passage where the NHC says it is.

If by some chance there is a LLC there...it is doomed. Skirting the northern coast of Hispaniola with no convection is a death sentence. It would be a dead man walking...a naked swirl that would dissipate.

wow are you seriously looking and the deep convection ... you need to look and the shallowest areas of rain as those are the closest to the surface..
also ... the rain north of it is much shallower that the stonger echos south but if you look at it correctly you will see the shallow echoes moving east on the south side//


right north coast is not good for it..

aric i think the convection that is seen as moving "west" south of the LLc is really building/expanding west ( provinding the illusion of a LLC further south) , i think this convection could start to turn from S to N (southerly inflow toward the LLC) should dominican not tear it up

[93superstorm]

This thing still looks very impressive, still very nice convection firing, anything can happen in the tropics

[Stormcenter]

Question for AFM, there's been alot of debate back & forth about how 92L will be affected by the ridge. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

Nobody can answer that question yet...because 92L hasn't decided what it wants to be. I think its going right over the back of Hispaniola. It will remain an open wave (although it may be closed for sometime today until that interaction)...until it clears Cuba. It is way too early to say. One thing I do think...I don't think it will get caught by the shortwave.

I just hope it gets mangled by the mountains in Haiti and Cuba causing it to dissapate.

[ekal]

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I feel the need to comment on the future intensity of this system. The GFDL and HWRF are bombing 92L to 107 knots (964 mb) and 106 knots (930 mb), respectively, somewhere in the vicinity of Andros Island early Monday. They have consistently progged RI in this area for many runs now. However, I think these solutions should be discounted, and here is why.

Despite two days of explosive convection, this system has yet to close a LLC. It may finally be in the process of doing that now, given PR/DR radars and the latest STDS issued by NHC. However, 92L has been tracking slightly south of where it was forecasted to be several days earlier, and it now appears that the system is in for a prolonged track across Hispaniola that is progged by the CONU to last through the day tomorrow. On that track, 92L will pass over or near the highest peak in the Caribbean, which Hurakan located a few days ago. I understand that this system does not have an inner core to disrupt, but this trek is certainly not going to benefit any formative LLC, and it will probably cause it to dissipate. If that is the case, we will be back to where we were yesterday, with a lot of intense convection, but no circulation. Supposing the system emerges Hispaniola at 18z tomorrow, that suggests no development until the afternoon of Sunday.

Let's be realistic. 92L is not going to bomb 75 millibars and 85 knots in the 24 hours it will then take for the system to reach Andros Island (or, if the track should shift left, South Florida). Remember Ernesto? The major hurricane flag was being waved by many, and the system ended up stumbling into Miami-Dade county as nearly a naked swirl. At most, I would expect a moderate to strong tropical storm (45 to 60 knots) at closest approach to SOUTH Florida, and much of those winds, given the expected track, may be offshore. Now, that does not preclude a stronger storm for points farther north, but for those of us here in the Miami-Dade/Broward/PBC area, I think we can all relax a little (while still remaining attentive to the situation).

Thoughts and comments welcome.

[Sanibel]

Just a heads up--we're discussing the new GFS (12z) in the Models thread...shows system over JAMAICA in 36 hours

Which would make me worry about a run at Florida from the south if this materializes.


Sustained weakness wouldn't be a shocker, but this one has hints of persistence and good features waiting for favorable conditions as well.

[Air Force Met]

It would be a dead man walking...a naked swirl that would dissipate

Not sure. The perfect upper could carry it.

Not that low level feature. Its a gonner. Whatever is there is racing out to the WNW and will be well away from any upper level support fairly soon...and I mean:
1) Away from the MLC and convection and...
2) Away from the ideal outflow.

It would travel across the northern part of the island...and suck in dry air. It has no support whatsoever. That is not the low to watch. The major spinning is going on due east and ese of Punta Cana. HENCE the reason the convection east of there is moving west. There is a little LLC off the NE coast..NE of Punta Cana...but that will be finished with no support.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Deepest convection seems awfully close to where Punta Cana radar suggests center is.

Never seen a .gov website of any nation with resort advertising before...

[txwatcher91]

Remember ekal, that Wilma, Katrina, Andrew, etc. RI under similar upper level conditions and in similar areas of TCHP.

[NEXRAD]

Ekal,

I agree that the GFDL and HWRF seem a bit over-done for intensity, but then 1995's Erin ramped-up pretty quick in the Bahamas as I recall. Another worthwhile storm analogy might prove to be 2000's Debby, which was continually forecast to move close to Southeast Florida as a hurricane but ultimately dissipated over Cuba. Note, though, that there was more shearing impact on Debby than land interaction alone.

- Jay

[Dean4Storms]

Aric, the "center" is farther south and east from where you've indicated, as the deepest convection near your circle is moving south.

- Jay

Agree with Jay, if that is the center Aric then 92L isn't developing anytime soon.

[KWT]

Hmmm if it makes a run at Florida its probably the best option Sanibel, won't have enough time to do anything if it took that track, still would have enough time to become a decent system but not enough to become anything too severe *unless* it ended up a little further west and bended back NNE into more northern parts of west Florida.

AFM, yep thats where I'd palce the center currently, a little further eas than I first thought but not all that much.

[gatorcane]

I'm a little worried about complacency in Southern Florida on this one. Though some systems like Debby, David, and Ernesto never materialized, we can site others like the 1935 Keys Hurricane that experiened RI in the matter of 24-48 hours crossing over the Bahamas islands and FL Straits. If the NHC indicates Southern Florida is a "distinct threat" (Beven) pay attention in my opinion.

and should 92L take off and bomb out like the GFDL and HWRF suggest there just won't be enough time to prepare in my opinion. Better prepare now and be safe then sorry. The scary thing is that there is REAL model support on this happening otherwise I wouldn't believe it

[txwatcher91]

Just a heads up--we're discussing the new GFS (12z) in the Models thread...shows system over JAMAICA in 36 hours

Which would make me worry about a run at Florida from the south if this materializes.


Sustained weakness wouldn't be a shocker, but this one has hints of persistence and good features waiting for favorable conditions as well.

Garbage run, GFS initialized about 100-150 miles too far south, so track is skewed.

[Air Force Met]

wow are you seriously looking and the deep convection ... you need to look and the shallowest areas of rain as those are the closest to the surface..
also ... the rain north of it is much shallower that the stonger echos south but if you look at it correctly you will see the shallow echoes moving east on the south side//


right north coast is not good for it..

You know Aric...I have been doing this for a few years and actually do know how to read a radar.

I did my first training on the FPS-77...so that dates me.

[NEXRAD]

Just a heads up--we're discussing the new GFS (12z) in the Models thread...shows system over JAMAICA in 36 hours

Which would make me worry about a run at Florida from the south if this materializes.


Sustained weakness wouldn't be a shocker, but this one has hints of persistence and good features waiting for favorable conditions as well.

Garbage run, GFS initialized about 100-150 miles too far south, so track is skewed.

Yes, the 12Z GFS initialization is definitely too far south with the low.

- Jay

[cpdaman]

anyone having difficulty getting that dominican animation to update

http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002