ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[fci]

I'm a little worried about complacency in Southern Florida on this one. Though some systems like Debby, David, and Ernesto never materialized, we can site others like the 1935 Keys Hurricane (and Wilma we may argue) that experiened RI in the matter of 24-48 hours crossing over the Bahamas islands and FL Straits. If the NHC indicates Southern Florida is a "distinct threat" (Beven) pay attention in my opinion.

and should 92L take off and bomb out like the GFDL and HWRF suggest there just won't be enough time to prepare in my opinion. Better prepare now and be safe then sorry. The scary thing is that there is REAL model support on this happening otherwise I wouldn't believe it

bump for South Floridians.

Chris:
I don't share your concern for complacency here
Last night after the Olympics it was the lead story on the Local News (mind you it was 1:00 AM but I'm sure others were watching and cheering on the girls- USA!!!!).

It is also the story on the top of Page 1 of the Palm Beach Post so anyone who sees the paper knows of 92L.

Go on-line right now to Miamiherald.com and you see the headline is:
Watch storm, forecasters urge
Residents and tourists in the Eastern Caribbean and South Florida should pay close attention on Friday to the progress of a mass of severe thunderstorms that is close to forming into a tropical depression.


Bottom line is that there is a lot of uncertainty about whether 92L will really threaten us and, if it does; how stron it will be.

No need to panic here and we really don't want the media to sound false alarms so that when they do tell us a storm is coming the general public will listen and react.

Believe me, if 92L materializes a real threat the reaction will be swift and people will be ready.
Wilma was not that long ago and people have not forgotten the damage a storm can do.

[cpdaman]

it's south, it's north this is a crazy system and a great website for everyone to join in the fun

looks like the low may be rather broad ...also would be nice if the dominican radar could update more than 6 minutes every hour.

[Sanibel]

You might consider a compromise of GFS12z and take it north of Jamaica.


KISS: Look at the wv and see where the center is.


I'm seeing signs a tight compact center is touching the east tip of DR in the passage.

[gatorcane]

But unlike Wilma, Frances, Jeanne, etc where South Floridians had plenty of time to watch this may be one of those rapidly developing systems that give only 3 days MAX for preparation. Big difference potentially with this one and its been quite sometime that South Florida has had to deal with the RI scenario (although it was more common in the early in mid 1900s where South Florida was mostly farmlands and few lived there)

personally I can't see how the GFDL and HWRF intensity solutions will ever verify. I'm leaning on the side of a rain and maybe some wind event here in South Florida but not horrific.....

[wxman57]

Looking at a 3-hr satellite loop, it's definitely looking less organized now. Look how the clouds are pointing to the NNW now. It's elongated NNW-SSE and not circular like it was earlier. Convection is weaker, too.

[gatorcane]

good news, lets hope this trend continues

[HURAKAN]

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

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The main mass of 92L is definitely moving west and I would say there is a much better chhance of it going through the DR or following the southern coast then there is of it riding the north coast.

[Dean4Storms]

Looking at a 3-hr satellite loop, it's definitely looking less organized now. Look how the clouds are pointing to the NNW now. It's elongated NNW-SSE and not circular like it was earlier. Convection is weaker, too.

I agree, looking ragged. I don't see this doing much today with the land interaction and I am beginning to think the CMC may come out a winner on this one.

[senorpepr]

Added a new graphic that zooms down even closer and puts surface plots, streamlines, sfc pressure all together with 0.5° base reflectivity out of San Juan.

[OuterBanker]

I agree with fci. No need to panic although Fl will be the first in line. Euro scenario yesterday was truly scary and that has changed drastically (hasn't it). Most models have moved west which would be good for the Carolinas. But most of all there has been no hype in our area, most aren't even aware of anything going on at all. Media is in just watching tropics mood. Thing is the media can kill business and scare the public. Once 92 develops it should be watched carefully, but until then there should be no hype. Regardless, we will have plenty of time to prepare.

[Vortex]

for days the cmc, nogaps and ukmet have advertised the solution at present in terms of impact areas...I favor these models for now based on continuity and consistency...


The clone of cleo in '64?

[Stormcenter]

Yep not looking so hot right now. Great news!!!!


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[Air Force Met]

Looking at a 3-hr satellite loop, it's definitely looking less organized now. Look how the clouds are pointing to the NNW now. It's elongated NNW-SSE and not circular like it was earlier. Convection is weaker, too.

I agree. It is elongating...which is what happens when the DR starts to work its magic. That is why I was saying what I was earlier about the perceived LLC. Its doomed.

DOOOMED I SAY. BWAHAHAHAHAHHHAA.

[Stormcenter]

If you think it looks ragged right now just wait until it goes over the other islands. It would be funny considering all of the worrying going on right now on this board if 92L didn't amount to more then a minimal hurricane or less.

[storms in NC]

I agree with fci. No need to panic although Fl will be the first in line. Euro scenario yesterday was truly scary and that has changed drastically (hasn't it). Most models have moved west which would be good for the Carolinas. But most of all there has been no hype in our area, most aren't even aware of anything going on at all. Media is in just watching tropics mood. Thing is the media can kill business and scare the public. Once 92 develops it should be watched carefully, but until then there should be no hype. Regardless, we will have plenty of time to prepare.

Now you said the truth.

[hurrgrl]

My daughter is in Jamaica with a University group doing research outside of Kingston. If this system goes over Jamaica what kind of weather could they expect? Do they have good preparation planning there? Sorry, but I know nothing about their responding to something like this in Jamaica and it makes me worry!

[BigA]

Per visible and infrared appears to be shifting southwestward, or at least the majority of its energy

[Dean4Storms]

Does appear that a LLC is near 18.2N 68.2W moving West

[cpdaman]

i see it going thru all the islands and taking a long time to do anything more.....but i can't get myself off this board or away from the loops.......