ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Sanibel]

That section of Cuba has the 2000 meter peak "Turquino". There was a hurricane that clipped that corner of Cuba a few years ago.

[Vortex]

The model guidance is really beginning to focus in on the keys and southern florida with each model run..

12Z rolling in with what looks like a direct hit on the keys and southern Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[LSU2001]

Earlier one of the pro mets was saying that the elongation was due to disruption/land interaction. Derek I think still has it going west or west north west.
tim

[Sanibel]

From the visible loop I think the center is possibly right on the NHC trop point on the east side of Ille De La Gonave.

[sphelps8681]

If that tongue of High pressure over the GOM shown on that map is solid it should push Fay more west (bad scenario).

If this could be true, how will this alter current landfall projections?

[rockyman]

The model guidance is really beginning to focus in on the keys and southern florida with each model run..

12Z rolling in with what looks like a direct hit on the keys and southern Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

Got all excited until I realized it was the 12z NAM

[SouthFLTropics]

The model guidance is really beginning to focus in on the keys and southern florida with each model run..

12Z rolling in with what looks like a direct hit on the keys and southern Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

Yes, but Derek pointed out last night that the NAM is "normally" garbage when it comes to forecasting tropical systems and it should be disregarded. Let's see if the 12Z GFS and GFDL follow suit. If that is the case then we can talk further.

SFT

[Weatherboy1]

It looks to me like the center is just emerging off the coast of the Ile de la Gonave (the island north of the peninsula that juts out to the west of Haiti). Nice map here if you're looking for a geography lesson:

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=htt ... image&cd=1

[Dean4Storms]

We must remember that the turn is entirely dependent on the depth of the weakness caused by that SE US Trough, where the weakness develops and when the weakness develops thus the spread on model solutions.

How many times in the past have we seen a forecasted weakness get delayed and the turn occur further and further west? This is what I'm concerned over right now because that will determine everything else including intensity and who gets affected. How much time over Cuba won't matter a bit if she turns further west and she won't spend much time over Cuba if she turns sooner although she would not have much time over water till she hit S FL.

[Sanibel]

If this could be true, how will this alter current landfall projections?

Maybe a hundred miles further west. But I think Texas is WAY clear on this and follow official weather sites for real life and limb information.

[Bocadude85]

do not think she will hit south florida probably will landfall around the big bend area

[DESTRUCTION5]

do not think she will hit south florida probably will landfall around the big bend area

LOL that far from SFL...

[Derek Ortt]

The model guidance is really beginning to focus in on the keys and southern florida with each model run..

12Z rolling in with what looks like a direct hit on the keys and southern Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

It's the NAM... utterly worthless!

[Sanibel]

It looks to me like the center is just emerging off the coast of the Ile de la Gonave (the island north of the peninsula that juts out to the west of Haiti). Nice map here if you're looking for a geography lesson:

Concur, and I think we'll see the center become more obvious from that initial point. This is good because it clips more land - and - bad because it confirms NHC track which goes right over me.


Dean, Katrina being a good case of underestimating the High.

[Dean4Storms]

The model guidance is really beginning to focus in on the keys and southern florida with each model run..

12Z rolling in with what looks like a direct hit on the keys and southern Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

It's the NAM... utterly worthless!

Its great for about 24 hours out, but which model isn't?

[cycloneye]

New watches and warnings issued at 11 AM

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...
AND SANCTI SPIRITUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...AND HOLGUIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO IS IN EFFECT
FOE THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND
GUANTANMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE ENTIRE COAST OF
HAITI.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. ALSO....THE GOVERNMENT OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

[SouthFloridawx]

If this could be true, how will this alter current landfall projections?

Maybe a hundred miles further west. But I think Texas is WAY clear on this and follow official weather sites for real life and limb information.

Why do you think Texas? Just wondering...

[TCmet]

with all the persistent convection overnight south of hispanola - wouldn't be surprised to see the center has nudged slightly south of NHC track at 11am.

[rockyman]

NHC 11am track slightly further east....interesting to note that the system is still moving west of north at landfall

[Flakeys]

Any idea when us folks in the keys will go under a watch or warning?