ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[jlauderdal]

here is a loop of the 5 day NHC track cone -- generally it has shifted to the East...

Could Fay miss FL to the east all together? NHC thinks ITS POSSIBLE and why the right end of the cone extends pretty far east of South FL.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

OK...for the last time about the cone...

There is no inherent thought process in regards to the cone. All it is is 2/3 of the average statistical error for each valid time.

They don't manipulate the cone to show some added degree of uncertainty. If the forecasts were BETTER...the cone would be smaller and if the forecast WAS better...then it wouldn't be off the east coast of FL...because it wouldn't be in the error.

Sorry...but I get a little torqued at all the posts about the forecast cone that suggest the NHC thinks it could go someplace because the cone is extended to here or there.

THE CONE DOESN'T CHANGE....except when the forecast track does. It will always be the 2/3 average error...until they change the way they do the cone.

thank you, i heard local media last year saying the the cone was tight because they felt good about the forecast...i almost hit the roof when i heard that

[cpdaman]

Sure looks like the LLC might become exposed in the next few hours...and it appears to be heading WNW toward the SE Cuban coast

Exactly, that is the LLC and it appears it has decoupled from the mid/upper MLC to the SE.

well it looked like they were separated by that long island of mountain that juts out to the west from the main haitian land mass, with the LLC to the north, and the MLC to the south, and pretty much the long narrow mountainous surface was a barrier to getting back for the last 6 or so hours

[Noles2006]

Does anyone else see the LLC near 19.5 74.5?

It shows up well on the Ramsdis floater........

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

i see an elongated NW/SE center and i think what you see is the NW most extension of that

the mountains are crippling this storm still (i think maybe a lag effect) mountains to the S, se, e NE, nw geez this needs to get further west to be more favorable water enviornment i think



also i heard it speculated that weaker means more west but looking at the current cimss steering flow it appears to me that does not jive with the low level steering flow

No... this thing needs to find more mountains and wring itself out!

[jusforsean]

Noticed a few owls last night flying down very busy had to chase one away landed right next to us

[HurricaneQueen]

Eric, I respectfully disagree. Not everyone is cheering for their region. Believe me, I have better things to do with my weekend than be glued here and getting preps completed. That does not take into account the possible devastating aftermath. Perhaps there are some who have never experienced a hurricane up close and personal or are too young to have a clue.

The best possible thing that could happen as far as I am concerned is that Fay goes "poof". (And soon!!!!)

Lynn

Gator,

Love your post but lets try and be a little objective here. SW Florida is West Florida. I'll bet you a nickel it won't hit SE Florida or even the very most Southern tip. It would need to move NW or NNW now to do that. Anywhere from Pensacola to Ft. Myers IMO and prob more Appalach to Ft. Myers

I love how it seems people cheer for their region to get hit and find any information that corrolates.

But what you said is not entirely correct. The GFDL and HRWF right now are cutting up the center, especially more so with the GFDL. Not withholding that they won't change again in the next 6 hours though

[Dean4Storms]

I do see a circulation near 74.5/19.4...

But I am only seeing a (small) north of west movement for now...

Folks are certainly breathing easier this morning around here this morning.

I'm grateful for what I'm seeing as I believe the eastern Mtns. of Cuba will weaken her even further!!!!

[deltadog03]

She does look pretty horrible right now....I am looking at a possible LLC just on the SW tip of haiti...I can see clouds moving from W-E on the slip of island....

[Stephanie]

This is GREAT NEWS!!!!!

HEHE, I agree....I'm feeling MUCH better this morning than I was last night....Last night was a bit scary, thinking what horrible intensity this could have become had it got into the warm bath waters of the gulf...... Of course, let's cross our fingers that the models don't switch back again...

We then will have to worry about the Bahamas and the East Coast. She'll still be over warm water...

[jusforsean]

today we began battening down we are the first to evacuate from manufactured homes here, not in the mood for all of this i'm guessing no matter the path, we will feel something over here in broward county!!

[ConvergenceZone]

well, nothing really worry about today anymore, so I can have a relaxing Saturday... .Will check back tomorrow ....................

[Dean4Storms]

She is a naked bare lady!!

[ConvergenceZone]

This is GREAT NEWS!!!!!

HEHE, I agree....I'm feeling MUCH better this morning than I was last night....Last night was a bit scary, thinking what horrible intensity this could have become had it got into the warm bath waters of the gulf...... Of course, let's cross our fingers that the models don't switch back again...

We then will have to worry about the Bahamas and the East Coast. She'll still be over warm water...

I just don't think the conditions will be near as good for development if it goes east of Florida. As they say, it takes more than just warm water to support a hurricane...I do think it can be a tropical storm though (just my own opinion).... ---- off to watch the olympics ----...will be interested to see tomorrow how this storm is evolved...

[Steve H.]

You folks are being a bit foolish here by looking at every individual frame. I think that what is happening now is what was expected. She will get her act together after getting free from Haiti. Once away from there she'll have a couple of days to get herself together. Fay is a potent little system. She will look quite a bit different in 24 - 36 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

She does look pretty horrible right now....I am looking at a possible LLC just on the SW tip of haiti...I can see clouds moving from W-E on the slip of island....

You can clearly see the LLC up near 19.5 74.5 on this site delta on the floater......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[deltadog03]

This is why I think there could be just Due WEST movement for today.. The ridge is still pretty strong to the north. Remember she is barely a TS right now. Winds are probably only 40mph or so.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... zoom=&time

[Derek Ortt]

if it has decoupled and is moving toward the mountains of E Cuba, then it is probably a weakening depression.

However, that feature may be transient

[drezee]

Fay should look horrible right now. The wind is coming off of the mountains. As it comes down the mountain, it heats up and drys out. Once it move away from the island, it should get healthy again. This has always been the double action killer for Hispanola. Mountains tear it up and once it leaves the coast (depending on the angle), the is a influx of warm dry air.

[ronjon]

The mountains of SE Cuba and Hispanola have really weakened Fay - wouldn't be surprised to see her downgraded to a TD. The LLC has no heavy convection associated with it and cloud tops are warming. It does appear to me to moving due west along 19N however. Probably is a temporary thing as she will probably get her act together tonight. The latest GFS shows Fay to remain offshore of Cuba for the next 36 hrs.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

We will have to keep an eye on that convection down near the SW tip of Haiti though, it would not be out of the question to see an new LLC form down in that.

[Steve]

>>Believe me, I have better things to do with my weekend than be glued here...

Like what?

Steve