ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Derek Ortt]

however, the GFS also supports that solution... seems as if GFDL may be a right outlier as its forecast motion is not exactly matching the observed motion

[Wthrman13]

The GFDL seems to far north with its 6 hour position, based on current trends. The circulation still appears to be moving close to due west, more in line with the HWRF. Both the GFDL and HWRF, I've noticed, have spin-up issues with the vortex in the early hours, with often erratic motion. It may or may not even out in the long range, but at this point I think the GFDL is probably too far east with its track.

EDIT: Upon further review, the GFDL isn't that far off with its 6-hr postion, but the jump to the northwest between 6 and 12 hours seems fishy to me, based on current trends.

[deltadog03]

Agreed...

[Brent]

Edit: Nevermind, old image.

[deltadog03]

The GFDL seems to far north with its 6 hour position, based on current trends. The circulation still appears to be moving close to due west, more in line with the HWRF. Both the GFDL and HWRF, I've noticed, have spin-up issues with the vortex in the early hours, with often erratic motion. It may or may not even out in the long range, but at this point I think the GFDL is probably too far east with its track.

EDIT: Upon further review, the GFDL isn't that far off with its 6-hr postion, but the jump to the northwest between 6 and 12 hours seems fishy to me, based on current trends.

Ya, GFDL's 18z position is not that bad, but its wind speed is not good. And I totally agree with you on that this more than likely will not be at that next position at 00z from the GFDL.

[tgenius]

I find great sadness that people read here and then post on Wunderground's blog as their own... pretty lame.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This better turn soon for Bastardi's East of, or right over, South Florida to Carolina's forecast to work out. He repeated it about 3 hours ago.


I have no super firm opinions, but I think I prefer the official NHC forecast on this occasion.

[GreenSky]

SO CAN ANY OF THE PRO METS ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS...

1) Should Fay be downgraded to a depression right now?

2) Is it safe to say Fay is officially dead if so, and chances of redeveloping and establishing a LLC are remote because of land interaction with mountainous terrain in Cuba?

3) The Southeast Coast of Florida (exception Key West) is looking safer?

4) At most, Fay will only be a tropical storm?

5) Fay will most likely hit the panhandle of Florida because of the continuous due west motion?

I know there are a lot of questions, but if any of you pro mets could answer these I would be more than happy.
Most of my previous questions have been ignored...due to the high volume of posts.

[Scorpion]

I find great sadness that people read here and then post on Wunderground's blog as their own... pretty lame.

Agreed, the main culprit is "hurricane23".

[Extremeweatherguy]

This better turn soon for Bastardi's East of, or right over, South Florida to Carolina's forecast to work out. He repeated it about 3 hours ago.


I have no super firm opinions, but I think I prefer the official NHC forecast on this occasion.

JB did say that this could go as far west as a Charley track though..and if the NHC track is correct, then he may be close. Overall though, I do agree that he generally seems to be too far east.

[storms in NC]

and the GFDL assumes we already have a hurricane

not buying that east shift

I know you said you are not buying the shift but I would like to know what the reason in. I havn't been on for a few hours and I havn't looked at any loops. I would just like to hear your in put as to why? I have no clue. This morning I seen the center for the first time.

[hazmat]

tgenius...it's been happening for years. Comical, yet sad.

[cycloneye]

The latest:

[Noles2006]

SO CAN ANY OF THE PRO METS ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS...

1) Should Fay be downgraded to a depression right now?

2) Is it safe to say Fay is officially dead if so, and chances of redeveloping and establishing a LLC are remote because of land interaction with mountainous terrain in Cuba?

3) The Southeast Coast of Florida (exception Key West) is looking safer?

4) At most, Fay will only be a tropical storm?

5) Fay will most likely hit the panhandle of Florida because of the continuous due west motion?

I know there are a lot of questions, but if any of you pro mets could answer these I would be more than happy.
Most of my previous questions have been ignored...due to the high volume of posts.

Not a Pro Met, but here are my 2 cents:
1) Depends on what Recon finds...
2) NO.
3) NO. Still too early to tell...
4) NO. Still too early to tell...
5) NO. Still too early to tell...

LOL, I know you'd like more definitely answers... but... it's "Still too early to tell"!

[Blown Away]

IMHO, maybe a little S of this track, I just don't see how this circulation survives.

[Scorpion]

Why are you thinking such a track?

[wxman57]

SO CAN ANY OF THE PRO METS ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS...

1) Should Fay be downgraded to a depression right now?

2) Is it safe to say Fay is officially dead if so, and chances of redeveloping and establishing a LLC are remote because of land interaction with mountainous terrain in Cuba?

3) The Southeast Coast of Florida (exception Key West) is looking safer?

4) At most, Fay will only be a tropical storm?

5) Fay will most likely hit the panhandle of Florida because of the continuous due west motion?

I know there are a lot of questions, but if any of you pro mets could answer these I would be more than happy.
Most of my previous questions have been ignored...due to the high volume of posts.

1. Not necessarily, there may be a small pocket of TS winds in the squalls south of Haiti.

2. Definitely not. Would we declare a tropical wave with a well-defined circulation dead?

3. Safer, perhaps, in that Fay is probably less likely to become a hurricane prior to reaching south Florida.

4. Good chance of that, but I'm not willing to bet that Fay definitely won't be able to reach hurricane strength because I'm not sure of Fay's track yet.

5. Not "most likely", but not impossible that it could reach the FL panhandle. There's still a trof to Fay's north tomorrow. Doesn't matter if it's weak or strong, it should still turn north.

[Lowpressure]

Latest sat pic on the previous page posted by CYCLONEYE does look to be a little better around the proposed LLC. Convection firing again in that area. I have learned alot watching her already, and she is not finished with the guessing game.

[AdamFirst]

IMHO, maybe a little S of this track, I just don't see how this circulation survives.

Maybe because that's not the circulation.

[Blown Away]

Why are you thinking such a track?

Based on the visible loop and radar, mostly the visible loop.