ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Yeah if the MLC does get stacked again then I see no reason other then maybe breif land interaction and some slightly drier air at mid levels from Cuba, for there not to be some pretty decent strengthening, esp if its at 45-50kts right now as well and not showing the most amazing presentation I've ever seen though its far from bad for that matter.

[NDG]

Pressure maybe down a mb to 1005mb
19.3N & 75.6W

231700 1918N 07540W 8427 01533 0050 +170 +170 018003 005 023 001 00

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Pressure maybe down a mb to 1005mb
19.3N & 75.6W

231700 1918N 07540W 8427 01533 0050 +170 +170 018003 005 023 001 00

thats what it was for the last fix so it hasn't changed yet

[KWT]

Yepp still about 1005mbs so pretty much the same as it was last pass through, also still close to west as well it seems.

[jlauderdal]

[KWT]

Its moved just 0.01 degree north since the lass pass of the center, pretty much due west for now which is meaning it still slowly moving away from what the 12z models showed in terms of track.

[Dean4Storms]

It sure isn't gaining much latitude from what I'm seeing.

[fasterdisaster]

That's a pretty high pressure for 50-55 kts, why?

[RL3AO]

That's a pretty high pressure for 50-55 kts, why?

Because its probably not 50-55kts.

[DESTRUCTION5]

FWIW our buddy JB Says up 81 W out Canaveral and to NC...

[NDG]

Yepp still about 1005mbs so pretty much the same as it was last pass through, also still close to west as well it seems.

Pressure maybe down a mb to 1005mb
19.3N & 75.6W

231700 1918N 07540W 8427 01533 0050 +170 +170 018003 005 023 001 00

thats what it was for the last fix so it hasn't changed yet

Yeah, you're both right, pressure has not fallen since the last fix.

[fasterdisaster]

That's a pretty high pressure for 50-55 kts, why?

Because its probably not 50-55kts.

With both a FL and surface wind I don't see how it couldn't be.

[KWT]

Yeah data really does just support 45kts, maybe 50kts at a push IMO.

Also yep its practically due west in terms of movement, needs to start gaining latitude pretty soon if the forecast aren't to be adjusted westwards.

[NDG]

FWIW our buddy JB Says up 81 W out Canaveral and to NC...

Sounds like he's going by the euro

[BigA]

Would a failure to gain latitude likely result in more time over water?

[shaggy]

If you look at the wide view color IR, there are convection bands forming as far away as Sanibel and the west coast of Cuba. I'm a little amazed or my memory is bad. I've seen much more powerful storms in the Caribb of course, but I don't know about seeing convection popping so far away...just the result of a sprawling storm and the interaction with the trough I suppose. The moisture envelope does seem to carry almost to the Keys now.


I'm not sure those are firing from Fay. There is an ULL over towards western Cuba and thats most likely the source for those storms IMO.

[Dean4Storms]

Its moved just 0.01 degree north since the lass pass of the center, pretty much due west for now which is meaning it still slowly moving away from what the 12z models showed in terms of track.

Yep, the HWRF at 12z had her around 19.8n 75.2w by now and it was one of the western most outliers at the end of her run.

[ALhurricane]

Yeah data really does just support 45kts, maybe 50kts at a push IMO.

Also yep its practically due west in terms of movement, needs to start gaining latitude pretty soon if the forecast aren't to be adjusted westwards.

A westerly movement shouldn't be that surprising. The low to mid level flow clearly supports an almost due west motion for the time being, especially with a weaker system. There was never anything to suggest a more northerly movement today, except for some of the models. That is why one can live and die by the models.

[cycloneye]

Would a failure to gain latitude likely result in more time over water?

Yes more time in those very warm waters south of Cuba.

[Shockwave]

Would a failure to gain latitude likely result in more time over water?

I'm going to say yes. And it would also mean intensification and a more Gulf landfall.