ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[lbvbl]

I have a question for all you experienced storm watchers out there... What is keeping Fay from making a more sharp Northward turn? Every model seems to have it very gradual... first heading WNW, then NW, then finally N...

[fasterdisaster]

I really think it will only make a slight difference to intensity whether or not it clips the S end of Cuba's 'tail'.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I have a question for all you experienced storm watchers out there... What is keeping Fay from making a more sharp Northward turn? Every model seems to have it very gradual... first heading WNW, then NW, then finally N...

It has remained a weak system so it is moving with the low level flow. The ridge to the north is holding in so far, and it has been following that. In fact this system will likely start to turn more west-northwestward within the next 24 hours, as this ridge weakens allowing it to start to move north. We will see.

[Jason_B]

A tropical storm threatening the US doesn't stop TWC from showing a worthless hour program that robs us of the local forecast and tropical update. So much for being our "hurricane authority".

[srainhoutx]

A hurricane watch for the keys will probably come sometime within the next 3 full advisories IMO.

Less than that for Monroe County to pull a non resident evac. Possibly 11 PM, no later than 5 AM tomorrow.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

Also the ridges are starting to form a weakness between them.

[fasterdisaster]

A tropical storm threatening the US doesn't stop TWC from showing a worthless hour program that robs us of the local forecast and tropical update. So much for being our "hurricane authority".

They only skip stupid Storm Stories(I'm guessing that's what it is, I haven't watched that channel for a long time) during a 'Storm Alert' which is within like 24 hours of landfall.

[deltadog03]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

Also the ridges are starting to form a weakness between them.

Matt that has been there all day. In fact that Weakness has pushed east over the last couple of hours. The Ridge in the gom has strengthened. That will begin to push east over the next 12-24 hours and then the WNW path should begin. I think the GFDL thought this would be so strong, intially, that it caught that weakness passing by florida earlier.

[physicx07]

edit: I meant TWC not NHC

I gave up on TWC so long ago. Last time I clearly remember watching it, Bob Hope was still alive, R.I.P.

A tropical storm threatening the US doesn't stop TWC from showing a worthless hour program that robs us of the local forecast and tropical update. So much for being our "hurricane authority".

They only skip stupid Storm Stories(I'm guessing that's what it is, I haven't watched that channel for a long time) during a 'Storm Alert' which is within like 24 hours of landfall.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I gave up on NHC so long ago. Last time I clearly remember watching it, Bob Hope was still alive, R.I.P.

A tropical storm threatening the US doesn't stop TWC from showing a worthless hour program that robs us of the local forecast and tropical update. So much for being our "hurricane authority".

They only skip stupid Storm Stories(I'm guessing that's what it is, I haven't watched that channel for a long time) during a 'Storm Alert' which is within like 24 hours of landfall.

The weather channel is not very good when put next to storm2k. The nhc can be argued about but they are very good at they do anyways.

[Agua]

aren't the bamm models pretty much useless out of the eastern atlantic?

How 'bout them Dolphins!

That's what we're told, and oh yeah,

GO 'PHINS!!!

[orion]

edit: I meant TWC not NHC

I gave up on TWC so long ago. Last time I clearly remember watching it, Bob Hope was still alive, R.I.P.

I think you mean John Hope instead of Bob Hope

[wxman57]

To give you an idea why the models haven't changed a whole lot in the past few days, just minor swings left/right, take a look at the GFS forecast for steering currents 700-400mb for 12Z Monday. There's a large area of high pressure in the western Gulf and northern Mexico and another large high east of the Bahamas. The trof axis is right over Florida. Nowhere else Fay can go but northward. It's just a matter of whether it tracks right up the peninsula, near the coast, or just offshore.

[AdamFirst]

The Weather Channel is pretty worthless when it comes to...well, the weather. Jim Cantore should quit and join MSNBC or something.

[Dean4Storms]

I still do not see any evidence of a WNW movement.

[CrazyC83]

What happens if Fay misses the trough completely?

[Evil Jeremy]

wxman, of the 3 paths that you gave, which one is more likely to happen, or is it all up in the air right now?

[Dean4Storms]

To give you an idea why the models haven't changed a whole lot in the past few days, just minor swings left/right, take a look at the GFS forecast for steering currents 700-400mb for 12Z Monday. There's a large area of high pressure in the western Gulf and northern Mexico and another large high east of the Bahamas. The trof axis is right over Florida. Nowhere else Fay can go but northward. It's just a matter of whether it tracks right up the peninsula, near the coast, or just offshore.

The question being just how strong is the Atlantic Ridge and might that trough be more westward at that time? We know the GFS has had a history of underestimating that Atlantic Ridge, has it got it right this time?

[cpdaman]

new quikscat

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds20.png

from 23:45 UTC

interesting wind patterns east of jamaica and off SE cuba

[Category6]

Fay looks like she is really slowing down.