ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[wxman57]

wxman, of the 3 paths that you gave, which one is more likely to happen, or is it all up in the air right now?

3 paths? I didn't give 3 paths. I said Fay faces high pressure to its west when it reaches western Cuba so it can't go that way. With the trof across Florida it should track north.

[capepoint]

A tropical storm threatening the US doesn't stop TWC from showing a worthless hour program that robs us of the local forecast and tropical update. So much for being our "hurricane authority".

Thats because they would rather be the discovery channel instead of the weather channel. Been getting worse the last year or so.

[Evil Jeremy]

wxman, of the 3 paths that you gave, which one is more likely to happen, or is it all up in the air right now?

3 paths? I didn't give 3 paths. I said Fay faces high pressure to its west when it reaches western Cuba so it can't go that way. With the trof across Florida it should track north.

well you said up the

peninsula, near the coast, or just offshore

so I was wondering which one of those you thought would be the end result, or if any of them can happen.

[wxman57]

wxman, of the 3 paths that you gave, which one is more likely to happen, or is it all up in the air right now?

3 paths? I didn't give 3 paths. I said Fay faces high pressure to its west when it reaches western Cuba so it can't go that way. With the trof across Florida it should track north.

well you said up the

peninsula, near the coast, or just offshore

so I was wondering which one of those you thought would be the end result, or if any of them can happen.

Oh, those 3 paths. I'm tired. I'd go with skirting the west coast and moving inland north of Tampa.

[cpdaman]

Wxman do you think an option 4 (nothing left by the time it crosses cuba) is gaining any %.

[Blown Away]

The NHC center has their path going almost due N from about 23N until 33N. 600+ miles of due North, I know anything is possible, but I'll bet there will be a decent swing to the left or right before this is all said and done.

[ekal]

Alright, let's stop TWC bashing. If it was not for that channel, many people would be a great deal less aware of the weather than they are, and I might not be a meteorology major. (Other kids watched Cartoon Network...I watched TWC).

Look at the METAR from Guantanamo. If it is accurate, Fay may be stronger than 40 knots.

MUGM 170155Z 14038G45KT 8000 -SHRA BKN030 OVC070 26/24 A2984 RMK PK WND 14045/0150 SLP105 T2 SET P0005 T02610239

38 knots sustained and 45 knot gust.

[Scorpion]

Interesting.. Guantanamo is barely even in the convection.

[Sanibel]

I think it looks like it slowed down too. Not sure.

The obvious thought is whether it clips Cabo Cruz and stays over water or this veer left and possible slowdown is a precursor to a shift? So far all you had to do was follow NHC. And that will probably stay true.

Left trend leaves open the possibility of more over water time followed by a sharper turn over Cuba and therefore less over land time.

[srainhoutx]

To give you an idea why the models haven't changed a whole lot in the past few days, just minor swings left/right, take a look at the GFS forecast for steering currents 700-400mb for 12Z Monday. There's a large area of high pressure in the western Gulf and northern Mexico and another large high east of the Bahamas. The trof axis is right over Florida. Nowhere else Fay can go but northward. It's just a matter of whether it tracks right up the peninsula, near the coast, or just offshore.

Thanks Chris. Just wondering how the trough over FL shifts the next 24-36 hours. "Our interests" in the Lower Keys are wondering.

[lbvbl]

I think it looks like it slowed down too. Not sure.

The obvious thought is whether it clips Cabo Cruz and stays over water or this veer left and possible slowdown is a precursor to a shift? So far all you had to do was follow NHC. And that will probably stay true.

Left trend leaves open the possibility of more over water time followed by a sharper turn over Cuba and therefore less over land time.

Wouldnt a slowdown cause a more Northeastern track?

[wxman57]

Wxman do you think an option 4 (nothing left by the time it crosses cuba) is gaining any %.

Yeah, that's another good one, too. Like I said earlier today, I think 60 mph max when it moves into south Cuba. That could be an overestimate. I doubt it'll be at 55 kts when it moves off the north coast of Cuba as per the NHC forecast.

[cpdaman]

anyone else look at the latest quickscat, any indications of a relocation further sE?

[Sanibel]

Wouldnt a slowdown cause a more Northeastern track?

There's a weird slower steering pattern here than recent storms. I would default to the NHC track for now after getting hoodwinked by GFDL earlier. This could be Channel quirks happening in the general NHC track.

[wxman57]

To give you an idea why the models haven't changed a whole lot in the past few days, just minor swings left/right, take a look at the GFS forecast for steering currents 700-400mb for 12Z Monday. There's a large area of high pressure in the western Gulf and northern Mexico and another large high east of the Bahamas. The trof axis is right over Florida. Nowhere else Fay can go but northward. It's just a matter of whether it tracks right up the peninsula, near the coast, or just offshore.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/GFS12ZMon.gif

Thanks wxman57. Just wondering how the trough over FL shifts the next 24-36 hours. "Our interests" in the Lower Keys are wondering.

GFS digs the low over the Southern Plains down to Texas Tue/Wed and builds the high east of the Bahamas westward across Florida by Wednesday. That would be an argument for a west shift in the track to the east FL panhandle.

[ekal]

anyone else look at the latest quickscat, any indications of a relocation further sE?

If you mean this pass, it was taken at 11:13 UTC yesterday (purple time stamp). That is about 15 hours old.

[cpdaman]

anyone else look at the latest quickscat, any indications of a relocation further sE?

If you mean this pass, it was taken at 11:13 UTC yesterday (purple time stamp). That is about 15 hours old.

umm..no how bout this one

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds20.png

[wxman57]

Well, I'm calling it a night. Alarm set for 4:30 for another 12-16 hr work day. I'll take a peek at the NHC track, first.

[ekal]

anyone else look at the latest quickscat, any indications of a relocation further sE?

If you mean this pass, it was taken at 11:13 UTC yesterday (purple time stamp). That is about 15 hours old.

umm..no how bout this one

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds20.png

Ah, I see. Well, that pass does not depict a closed circulation, so it is difficult to determine where the center of Fay would be located. That said, satellite imagery and the last recon obs don't suggest any reformations.

[srainhoutx]

Well, I'm calling it a night. Alarm set for 4:30 for another 12-16 hr work day. I'll take a peek at the NHC track, first.

My self as well. Tomorrow will be an interesting day.