ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[ekal]

I believe it will have pretty favorable upper levels and will have the SST's to strengthen over the 12-18 hours it will be south of Cuba. It is possible for a 60-65 knot system. Also it looks very good right now with good classic 9 shape starting to form.

I will be honest -- I see little that would suggest a 60-65 knot landfall in Cuba. The convection is deep, but the strongest bursts are located to the south of the LLC. Land interaction is significant at the moment and will continue throughout the day today. No higher than 50 knots, IMHO, at Cuban landfall, and I still think this will be below hurricane intensity at landfall in FL.

Obviously, those are very unofficial statements, and the NHC is taking the path of least regret by publicizing the threat for a stronger storm. That is the right move, even if the storm is a little weaker than expected.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe it will have pretty favorable upper levels and will have the SST's to strengthen over the 12-18 hours it will be south of Cuba. It is possible for a 60-65 knot system. Also it looks very good right now with good classic 9 shape starting to form.

I will be honest -- I see little that would suggest a 60-65 knot landfall in Cuba. The convection is deep, but the strongest bursts are located to the south of the LLC. Land interaction is significant at the moment and will continue throughout the day today. No higher than 50 knots, IMHO, at Cuban landfall, and I still think this will be below hurricane intensity at landfall in FL.

Obviously, those are very unofficial statements, and the NHC is taking the path of least regret by publicizing the threat for a stronger storm. That is the right move, even if the storm is a little weaker than expected.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[/quote]


It has to do with, does it stay over water, or does it move inland over Cuba 'earlier' with a more northward track. It is a wait and see. I agree that once into the gulf that it could easly be below hurricane strength for landfall in Florida. But that can also change.

[ekal]

Hi everyone. I was just watching Dr. Lyons on TWC and he mentioned the panhandle. My question is if the panhandle has any chance of a hit then why are we out of the cone? TY

Actually, the panhandle is still in the cone.



Effects, at this time, are expected to be most significant over the peninsula, but a panhandle landfall cannot be ruled out yet.

[jinftl]

yep...only pensacola area is outside the cone....rest of panhandle is fair game....just too early for any watches that far north

Hi everyone. I was just watching Dr. Lyons on TWC and he mentioned the panhandle. My question is if the panhandle has any chance of a hit then why are we out of the cone? TY

Actually, the panhandle is still in the cone.



Effects, at this time, are expected to be most significant over the peninsula, but a panhandle landfall cannot be ruled out yet.

[deltadog03]

I believe it will have pretty favorable upper levels and will have the SST's to strengthen over the 12-18 hours it will be south of Cuba. It is possible for a 60-65 knot system. Also it looks very good right now with good classic 9 shape starting to form.

I will be honest -- I see little that would suggest a 60-65 knot landfall in Cuba. The convection is deep, but the strongest bursts are located to the south of the LLC. Land interaction is significant at the moment and will continue throughout the day today. No higher than 50 knots, IMHO, at Cuban landfall, and I still think this will be below hurricane intensity at landfall in FL.

Obviously, those are very unofficial statements, and the NHC is taking the path of least regret by publicizing the threat for a stronger storm. That is the right move, even if the storm is a little weaker than expected.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It has to do with, does it stay over water, or does it move inland over Cuba 'earlier' with a more northward track. It is a wait and see. I agree that once into the gulf that it could easly be below hurricane strength for landfall in Florida. But that can also change.[/quote]

Well, Before recon left, the lowest pressure they found was about 1002mb near that coord. I posted. IF that is the dominant center, then its clearly still over water.

[ekal]

Matt, it looks based on recon, that the LLC (with lowest pressure find) is around here:

19.5 north.....longitude 78.6 west

A good distance outside the deep convection. If that is truly the center, this storm is more disorganized than expected. However, surface observations and Cuban radar suggest the LLC is somewhere near the SE peninsula of Cuba.

[deltadog03]

I don't rely on there radar..not very good..plus this thing is broad...so, ya its a tough call...Thats just where they found the lowest pressure. It makes a little sense, since FAY can't seem to get it together right now.

[Trader Ron]

Latest track is scary for SW Florida. Let's hope it stays at T.S. strength.

[ekal]

Yes, she is certainly a broad broad. Hispaniola cripples even weak TCs with exceptional UL outflow regimes.

[tailgater]

094530 1929N 07834W 5854 04566 0004 +025 +025 335013 014 031 000 00
094600 1929N 07836W 5680 04814 0003 +013 +013 329015 016 030 000 00`

If this is correct, pressures of 1000.3 and 1000.4 with winds over 12 knots

[cycloneye]

First visible pic of Sunday:

[Sihara]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 170739
AFDTBW

....THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS FAY LIFTING NORTH
AND BEGINNING TO IMPACT SW FL MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING
NORTH AND INCREASING TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE IMPACTING WEST
CENTRAL FL TUESDAY...

from the NWS, Tampa Bay AFD quoted above.

I am curious about why they seem sure it will be a cat 1 or a tropical storm if it hits near Tampa Bay. I apologize if this is answered elsewhere, I didn't find it (or didn't understand it). I guess I'm remembering Charlie. We were told it would be a 1, maybe at most a 2, when it arrived in Tampa Bay. Fortunately for us, and sadly for Port Charlotte, it veered rightward before arriving here - and it wasn't a 1 or 2 at landfall either.

Matt, you said "that could change" - but everything I've seen recently holds it to cat 1 or less, which would be very good. But I'm wondering what the inhibiting factor would be.

An earlier post in this thread noted that people here in the Tampa Bay area may be too relaxed about this, due to what happened with Charlie. And that's probably true. I don't see any serious preparations around where I live, which I think is stupid. If you wait till you're sure you'll be hit, there's not enough time to prepare.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The upper level pattern over the gulf once this makes it in looks to be favorable. When I say it could change I'm talking about how much time will it have. It will need at least 24 hours to redevelop its innercore after moving off of Cuba. If given enough time it could grow stronger...Plus we also have to watch for the environment at the time; remember the models are not good in forecasting the environment at all, that is shear, also we have to watch for dry air. That is a unknown as of right now.

So that is what I'm talking about when I say it could change.

[jinftl]

if the hurricane watch is extended north to include the tampa bay area at 11am, that should get people's attention...

000
FXUS62 KTBW 170739
AFDTBW

....THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS FAY LIFTING NORTH
AND BEGINNING TO IMPACT SW FL MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING
NORTH AND INCREASING TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE IMPACTING WEST
CENTRAL FL TUESDAY...

from the NWS, Tampa Bay AFD quoted above.

I am curious about why they seem sure it will be a cat 1 or a tropical storm if it hits near Tampa Bay. I apologize if this is answered elsewhere, I didn't find it (or didn't understand it). I guess I'm remembering Charlie. We were told it would be a 1, maybe at most a 2, when it arrived in Tampa Bay. Fortunately for us, and sadly for Port Charlotte, it veered rightward before arriving here - and it wasn't a 1 or 2 at landfall either.

Matt, you said "that could change" - but everything I've seen recently holds it to cat 1 or less, which would be very good. But I'm wondering what the inhibiting factor would be.

An earlier post in this thread noted that people here in the Tampa Bay area may be too relaxed about this, due to what happened with Charlie. And that's probably true. I don't see any serious preparations around where I live, which I think is stupid. If you wait till you're sure you'll be hit, there's not enough time to prepare.

[gtalum]

Ugh I hate these completely uncertain storms. I have to decide today whether to shutter or not, because I won't have time tomorrow. My other preparations are all in place already.

I'm inland near I-75 just east of Bradenton.

[wxsouth]

I don't rely on there radar..not very good..plus this thing is broad...so, ya its a tough call...Thats just where they found the lowest pressure. It makes a little sense, since FAY can't seem to get it together right now.

Delta,

Be aware that the extrapolated sfc pressure get less and less accurate with altitude. The low pressures you see in the obs are as the aircraft is climbing up to near 14kft, and are likely very inaccurate. The actual low level center is almost certainly farther north and east along the Cuban coast.

[deltadog03]

Ok, thanks!! I guess its just one of those...eh...systems...lol This chick is a toughy....

[ekal]

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 395 MILES...
635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

Not under the deepest convection.

Thanks for that explanation, wxsouth.

[dizzyfish]

Ugh I hate these completely uncertain storms. I have to decide today whether to shutter or not, because I won't have time tomorrow. My other preparations are all in place already.

I'm inland near I-75 just east of Bradenton.

Me too.

From the SPC

SPC AC 170708

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...

SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF FAY. LATEST FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS CENTER OF
CIRCULATION WILL MOVE ONSHORE NEAR TPA...THEN MOVE INLAND ACROSS SRN
GA WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL THIS SYSTEM
LIFTS INLAND AND WEAKENS.

[CronkPSU]

This storm reminds me of a rookie athlete who has tons of potential, everything ripe for intensification, but never lives up to the hype because it can't get its act together

of course I am hoping that it never reaches its potential and just brings well needed rain to Lake Och and the Southeast but I am really shocked it can't get past this tropical storm stage