ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[wxman57]

Looks good to me. The big blowups are new. Fay is getting better organized. It's definitely strengthening slightly just like the NHC said it would before crossing Cuba.

From its appearance on satellite and surface obs around it, it may have to strengthen to become a TS. Grand Cayman Island just 130 miles SW of the center has a NE wind at 5 kts. The only TS winds may be in that small area of squalls NE of the center. Elsewhere, winds appear to be under 20 kts.

[storms in NC]

Looks good to me. The big blowups are new. Fay is getting better organized. It's definitely strengthening slightly just like the NHC said it would before crossing Cuba.

Hi funster no it is not strengthening or organizing (see pro met and my posts above).

I don't agree with those naysayer posts. Big blow-ups near the center are a sure sign of strengthening. There have been many half-a-hurricane systems before.

May I ask What is a Half of a Hurricane? I have nerve heard of that one. And I am old here.

[ekal]

Note that Grand Cayman is reporting NE winds to the SW of the circulation center. This observation and the others do not suggest an LLC that is becoming better defined.

Edit: Beat me to it, wxman57.

[TCmet]

not intensifying at all this afternoon

still barely has a closed surface circulation on high res visible imagery. Likely is not 45KT at the present time

I think think for the first time I'm going to politely disagree.

I believe the "looks can be deceiving" can go both ways (back when it was 92L (looks wonderful, but nothing on the inside); and now, in the opposite way.

The LLC is currently more defined than it has been in a very long time, if ever. I agree that it is exposed to its west, but I believe that is changing. Check out the last few frames of the 1km vis.... You can see convection popping N and now NNW of the LLC and trying to wrap around (band of new cold cloud tops). You have convection on the SE of the LLC wrapping around. Look at the low level inflow, its looking the best I have seen with this system. Lastly, look at the radar and compare it to this morning's, a million times better.

While the winds may not be higher just yet, let it reorganize for a few hours, I think we might be surprised.... As long as it stays over water. It'll only be a matter time before Fay is back in business.

recon arrives in a few minutes, and then we'll know. i would bet the current strength is no worse than last night. but probably no better either.

[funster]

Looks good to me. The big blowups are new. Fay is getting better organized. It's definitely strengthening slightly just like the NHC said it would before crossing Cuba.

From its appearance on satellite and surface obs around it, it may have to strengthen to become a TS. Grand Cayman Island just 130 miles SW of the center has a NE wind at 5 kts. The only TS winds may be in that small area of squalls NE of the center. Elsewhere, winds appear to be under 20 kts.

Right, those squalls to the NE are new and right next to the center. They were not there a while ago. That's strengthening when squalls form near the LLC that were not there before. If you want to say it weakened and then strengthened again. Fine. But it is better organized now than it was 3 hours ago and it will be stronger in 3 hours than it is now.

[Dean4Storms]

Nice Spaghetti Model site........

http://www.hurricanealley.net/images/06LSPAG.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

Fay could turn out to be the boy who cried wolf. This is concerning considering that we are "early" in the season and noone knows what the next six to eight weeks could bring. If Fay brings nothing but just a breeze and some showers I'm afraid that it could lead to some very complacent people next time we have a threat...In this case with the NHC I guess they are damned if they do and damned if they don't. I would not want to be in their shoes right now. Some very tough calls with alot of government and political impacts with every decision that is made.

SFT

[tolakram]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

It's really moving mainly west for the last few hours (as others have reported too). This late in the game a little more west makes a big difference ... but then an immediate jog to the north would end that quickly. I think it may be re-organizing around the llc. To my eyes, because it's partially exposed, it looks vigorous and I'm seeing convection slowly increasing around the center.

As far as track, either the NHC 11AM position was too far north or this has moved a little south in the last few hours.

[cpdaman]

not intensifying at all this afternoon

still barely has a closed surface circulation on high res visible imagery. Likely is not 45KT at the present time

I think think for the first time I'm going to politely disagree.

I believe the "looks can be deceiving" can go both ways (back when it was 92L (looks wonderful, but nothing on the inside); and now, in the opposite way.

The LLC is currently more defined than it has been in a very long time, if ever. I agree that it is exposed to its west, but I believe that is changing. Check out the last few frames of the 1km vis.... You can see convection popping N and now NNW of the LLC and trying to wrap around (band of new cold cloud tops). You have convection on the SE of the LLC wrapping around. Look at the low level inflow, its looking the best I have seen with this system. Lastly, look at the radar and compare it to this morning's, a million times better.

While the winds may not be higher just yet, let it reorganize for a few hours, I think we might be surprised.... As long as it stays over water. It'll only be a matter time before Fay is back in business.

i will politely agree, nice well thought out post. next 6 hours is GO time for fay IMO

recon will not show much just yet, but i think in 6 hours this may be a more respectable tropical storm

also short term trends is west of guidance.

[Jason_B]

Nice Spaghetti Model site........

http://www.hurricanealley.net/images/06LSPAG.gif

That is one of the strangest plots I've seen (regarding the ones bending off to the west), but still a pretty solid consensus over west south/central Fla.

[wxman57]

Here's a little better surface plot with high-res satellite. Not exactly an awe-inspiring circulation Just a small swirl with a few heavy squalls to the east. It's had over 24 hours to organize after passing Haiti and this is the best it can do? It'll be inland over Cuba in 12 hours or so. My money is on minimal TS at that time.

[gatorcane]

Here is another wider loop to see the westward jog that members are talking about.....

Fay definitely doing one thing right to trying an organize by avoiding a Cuban landfall at the moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[DAVE440]

Looking at the water vapor loop I see much less convection than
at the beginning of the loop. Regardless of whether the center
passes over mountains of Cuba, the outer periphery is already interacting with land. It has to pull in moisture from somewhere
and that can't happen at the moment. I do see a convection blow up
NW of what I "thought" was the LLC much closer to Cuba. Not sure if that is a new location for the LLC or just a blow up. This thing is going to be in pretty poor shape exiting Cuba if it crosses any time soon.

WATER VAPOR LOOP
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[KWT]

I'm not sure why people think Fay is looking better, its still just as exposed as it was before. Whilst I think it probably is a TS I do think its weakened a touch recently given its presentation.

The thing I'm noting though is the ULL gets very elongated to the point where it becomes hard to trace on the GFS upper plots around 48-60hrs. If its still over water thats going to be its best chance to relaly do something IMO...not going to do anything with current uppers IMO.

[expat2carib]

Nice Spaghetti Model site........

http://www.hurricanealley.net/images/06LSPAG.gif

That is one of the strangest plots I've seen (regarding the ones bending off to the west), but still a pretty solid consensus over west south/central Fla.

Another nice one herehttp://www.vidapedra.com/images/spaghetti-carbonara.jpg

[funster]

Looking at the water vapor loop I see much less convection than
at the beginning of the loop. Regardless of whether the center
passes over mountains of Cuba, the outer periphery is already interacting with land. It has to pull in moisture from somewhere
and that can't happen at the moment. I do see a convection blow up
NW of what I "thought" was the LLC much closer to Cuba. Not sure if that is a new location for the LLC or just a blow up. This thing is going to be in pretty poor shape exiting Cuba if it crosses any time soon.

WATER VAPOR LOOP
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

When it crossed that tip of Cuba it lost the convection but now the convection is returning once again. You can see it in the very last frames.

[CronkPSU]

Nice Spaghetti Model site........

http://www.hurricanealley.net/images/06LSPAG.gif

That is one of the strangest plots I've seen (regarding the ones bending off to the west), but still a pretty solid consensus over west south/central Fla.

Another nice one herehttp://www.vidapedra.com/images/spaghetti-carbonara.jpg

mmmmm one of my favorites, having it for dinner tomorrow night!

[chris_fit]

I'm not sure why people think Fay is looking better, its still just as exposed as it was before. Whilst I think it probably is a TS I do think its weakened a touch recently given its presentation.

The thing I'm noting though is the ULL gets very elongated to the point where it becomes hard to trace on the GFS upper plots around 48-60hrs. If its still over water thats going to be its best chance to relaly do something IMO...not going to do anything with current uppers IMO.

IMO, you sort of nailed it.... Fay is NOT looking better, that's the deceiving part..... IMO it is organizing. Just this morning, when before the intense convection warmed, everyone was arguing where the LLC was....

Take a look at that now, just in the last 3 hours, the LLC has really made its presence shown. Given that convection is exploding in all but the W and SW quadrants, I believe its only a matter of time before Fay "Looks" like a real contender and her winds shoot up, and pressures fall.

Patience grasshoppers.

[KWT]

Its hardly explosive convection though Funster, its fairly deep but its lumped to the NE of the center, thats really not a sign of a strengthening system.

[jconsor]

Looks good to me. The big blowups are new. Fay is getting better organized. It's definitely strengthening slightly just like the NHC said it would before crossing Cuba.

From its appearance on satellite and surface obs around it, it may have to strengthen to become a TS. Grand Cayman Island just 130 miles SW of the center has a NE wind at 5 kts. The only TS winds may be in that small area of squalls NE of the center. Elsewhere, winds appear to be under 20 kts.

Yes, closeup visible satellite loops show that Fay's circulation is rather broad and elongated to the southwest of the center. However, there have been sustained tropical storm force winds reported. Cabo Cruz on the coast of southeast Cuba has been seeing sustained winds around 40 mph since mid-morning: http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78360.html