ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Evil Jeremy]

Just look at how 1 major feeder band is already affecting the state:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Frank P]

nice little convection build up near the center just starting

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[gatorcane]

well as I predicted from earlier today, that convection burst was the sign of increased organization.

Fay is nearly off to the races unfortunately.

Here in West Palm Beach I'm seeing E winds from 15-25mph with a "band" that just came in...not much wind but the atmosphere is definitely in turbulence this evening...

S. Florida already feeling "feeder" bands from Fay with strong ESE gusts and showers moving in off the Gulf stream.....

[caneman]

Check out this drop

21212 00002 05023

1002mb but with a 23 kt wind.

Winds will follow suit. Looking much better.

[Jason_B]

Fay is now back to looking like a very decent tropical storm.

[Stratusxpeye]

New GFDL is further east than the previous run, showing landfall in Central Florida.

can you show the track, or is there a link you can post?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081712-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

This has it coming on shor just south of tampa bay and strengthening for a few hours AFTER landfall. Landfall at around 80knts. So are they shifting west or east on the latest models?

[gatorcane]

Fay is now back to looking like a very decent tropical storm.

lets hope that the organization is just temporary, I have some growing concern for the West Coast of FL this evening....

[wxman57]

Max FL winds only 40 kts this afternoon. That doesn't exactly convert to surface winds 45 kts. Still looks like a poorly-organized minimal TS that's now moving into Cuba. I still have doubts about it ever getting its core going and becoming a hurricane.

[KWT]

Yep looks like Fay is strengthening now with deep convection forming over the center, pressure is dropping and winds probably will eventually respond, may not do so though before Cuba.

[sfwx]

WTNT31 KNHC 172345
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...FAY MOVING SLOWER...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...330 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 265 MILES...430
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY AND SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED CROSS
WESTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR
THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AND WHEN IT APPROACHES
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE MONDAY.
FAY

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF CUBA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HEAVY RAIN MAY
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[gatorcane]

Wxman I have to disagree as much as we don't want this thing to strengthen and affect Florida I do think strengthening and organization is underway --- it's only a matter of time before the surface winds increase to reflect the increased organization...

[caneman]

Max FL winds only 40 kts this afternoon. That doesn't exactly convert to surface winds 45 kts. Still looks like a poorly-organized minimal TS that's now moving into Cuba. I still have doubts about it ever getting its core going and becoming a hurricane.

Respectfully disagree compadre' Pressure down, structure looking better than it has all day.

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

I'd have agreed with you wxman57 about 3hrs ago but since then convection has really started to strongly develop over the center. Don't think this will develop an inner core till after Cuba but I do think the synoptic pattern has improved aloft with the ULL slowly easing away and the system slowing down helping to ease relative shear.

Also as others have said pressure is slowly falling, hardly at any quick pace but its falling none the less.

[Jason_B]

Definitely looks due north on the radar.

[rjgator]

I rarely post but here is an email I sent last Saturday about 92L
-----Original Message-----
From: Ryan
Sent: Sunday, August 10, 2008 1:21 PM
To: 'Hurricane Group'
Cc:
Subject: RE:

Well, forecasting 7-10 days out is always dicey so I'll take the plunge for once. There is amazing agreement in the upper air pattern next 7-10 days by Euro and GFS Models. Both models show a pumped up Mid Level 500 mb ridge over the eastern US-western Atlantic in this time frame due to a vigorous 500 mb cutoff low over Iowa. If this happens, look for a path for 92L from the N Leewards that skims the north coasts of PR, Hispanola, and Cuba. Perhaps even entering the FL straits. After that, both models show the 500 mb low over the midwest causing a weakness over the western and central GOM which might favor a northward movement in the eastern GOM. Of course this is all speculative - gonna depend on the strength of the ridge, how strong 92L gets, and any land interaction. The overall setup looks similar to Charlie 2004 more than Frances at this time. However, 7-10 days is a long way away especially when I am predicting something that is not even there yet.

Ryan

[funster]

Max FL winds only 40 kts this afternoon. That doesn't exactly convert to surface winds 45 kts. Still looks like a poorly-organized minimal TS that's now moving into Cuba. I still have doubts about it ever getting its core going and becoming a hurricane.

Maybe your browser has caching problems.

[gatorcane]

I noticed flocks of birds heading West over Palm Beach County this evening...I was just outside fishing on the lake behind my house.

although the storm is not forecasted to come through Palm Beach County, it makes me wonder why I was seeing this....

[CronkPSU]

looking somewhat better and the center seems to actually have convection around it now....still a VERY lopsided storm, there is nothing to its western side...still has a lot of work to do and less and less time before it gets all messed up again transversing Cuba

[gatorcane]

Max FL winds only 40 kts this afternoon. That doesn't exactly convert to surface winds 45 kts. Still looks like a poorly-organized minimal TS that's now moving into Cuba. I still have doubts about it ever getting its core going and becoming a hurricane.

Maybe your browser has caching problems.

unlikely he is having caching issues (in fact I guarantee you he is not). He is a pro met.