ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[ExBailbonds]

Check out the water vapor loop!! The ULL that was northwest of Fay is now droping to the southwest of her. I have heard it said that will ventilate Fay and allow Fay to strengthen. Is this correct?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html


Opps!! Tolkram beat me to it

[Steve]

Thanks 57. I'm only hoping that whatever it brings Tampa-Tallahassee (assuming the 00zs are on target which they probably are) is minimal and they get 3-6" up in GA/SC/NC where they could use some drought relief and a good moistening up of the soil.

Steve

[CalmBeforeStorm]

i think the intersting thing about those model runs is that unless fay picks up some speed now (possible) then she won't move as much as the 12 and 24 hour forecast points call for (north or west)

And, therefore, the predicted NW then north turns would occur at a closer longitude.

[storms in NC]

LOL I am sorry I posted the same loop. Great mines think a like.

Deb

[gatorcane]

ULL moving away SW. Can this position enhance Fay?

look at the trough digging in that pic above (top of image). Models have to shift more East I would bet you.

[LaBreeze]

Gatorcane, what are you saying - that the sharp trough in the SE US is what is slowing Fay? Do you think that she will be pulled northward or northeastward faster because of it? I'm always interested in your opinions.

[Dean4Storms]

Both the GFDL and the HWRF have Fay gaining alot of latitude from here on out. So for these runs to be accurate at this point we need to start to see a major NW movement from here on IMO.

[NEXRAD]

Check out the water vapor loop!! The ULL that was northwest of Fay is now droping to the southwest of her. I have heard it said that will ventilate Fay and allow Fay to strengthen. Is this correct?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

As the upper low moves south of Fay it will allow greater upper level divergence to evolve northwest of the tropical storm. This could lead to a much more supportive environment for sustained convection across Fay's northwest quadrant. The recent cell development near Isla de Pinos seems to support this.

- Jay

[Bgator]

Can anyone let me know why the trof wont dig farther south? Just too weak?

[mattpetre]

I really don't think this is about the trough leaving the SE CONUS right now as much as the one that is over CO, NM. That is the same ULL we've been watching come down from Western Canada since last Wed./Thurs. and in my opinion is the best chance of really kicking Fay out to the East. If the ridge builds and remains over TX, then I think the panhandle and even somewhat west of there may need to worry some. This is an unprofessional opinion and please use Pro Mets and NHC guidance for emergency decisions.

[cpdaman]

could this perhaps get nugged north into cuba as the short wave digs into tennesee valley and S.e then kind of left there or just north of cuba under weak sterring currents after it passes

im looking at the clouds north of fay and they are taking a NNW motion, this may show her near term drift (which would be toward higher terrain of cuba)

[BensonTCwatcher]

i think the intersting thing about those model runs is that unless fay picks up some speed now (possible) then she won't move as much as the 12 and 24 hour forecast points call for (north or west)

i'm thinking there is a distinct possibilty she gets stuck over cuba and messed up pretty bad (and should she not go further north than fort myers) she may never get her act together.

exactly, many small devations are going to make a big difference

Also, I am guess from the sat presentation and SST's we wwill intensification over the next 18 hrs despite the mountains of Cuba at 6K feet at thier peak

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

[wxman57]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Miami/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif

ULL moving away SW. Can this position enhance Fay?

Look at that trof digging down into the northern Gulf! It would be hard for a TC to track through that.

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane, what are you saying - that the sharp trough in the SE US is what is slowing Fay? Do you think that she will be pulled northward or northeastward faster because of it? I'm always interested in your opinions.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Judging by that WV loop I just can't see it moving much more WNW or even NW....that trough is pretty sharp and it seems to be pushing SE pretty nicely tonight. Unless the western outlier models think Fay will bypass the trough I don't see anything west of the west coast of FL..I even think a NNE movement may ensue at some point and maybe why the Euro kept insisting on Fay cross the peninsula from SW to NE into the Atlantic.....I'll still forecast landfall on the southern half of the peninsula anywhnere south of Tampa around the peninsula to the upper FL Keys. I would probably put SE FL back in the cone at the 11pm EST advisory.

[Sanibel]

I think Fay is overpowering the ULL. I'm not sure it will do all that much.

Look at the sort of buckling kink in the trough south of Pensacola. That could be the reason for the stall. How it comes out of that I don't know but more east is a possibility.

[Bgator]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Miami/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif

ULL moving away SW. Can this position enhance Fay?

Look at that trof digging down into the northern Gulf! It would be hard for a TC to track through that.

Why wont fay be turned more NE then, weak trof, or is the trof going to pull out?

[Canelaw99]

Well I'll say this. She sure looks to have come to a huge stall and I don't recall any of the models picking that up. This has been one of the most fun storms I've watched in a while.

Fun? I think more like frustrating is the word I'd call it.

But S2K is like a drug...I'm still here...

I second that! LOL We were at a friends' house yesterday BBQing and playing in the pool, fun, but there were plenty of times I needed my S2K fix. Thank goodness they have wireless internet so I could hop online with my iPod Touch LOL

[LaBreeze]

Thanks gatorcane. It makes sense to me.

[NEXRAD]

The trough is definitely a player, but from what I'm looking at, it's the combined influence of the upper low near Wrn Cuba and the troughing that are influencing the mid and upper level steering flow ahead of Fay. As for the tropical storm stalling out near Cuba, it could do this if it fails to strengthen during the next 24 hours. Any increase in intensity and convective organization, though, will embed the tropical storm deeper within the mid-level steering flow, which is decidedly southerly.

- Jay

[Jason_B]

I hope folks in South Florida haven't let their guard down, because I have a feeling Fay stalling out could mean a much more eastern motion tomorrow.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products