ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Clipper96]

Fay has never seen a mountain that she would not climb. In she is doing so as the radar shows her core of turning moving right into it. It is turning northward now.

Great! Fay should not be anything more than a tropical storm when it hits SW Florida because she will have less time over water and will be SEVERELY DISRUPTED by land interaction with that central Cuban mountain range!

IMO, that's a very pessimistic estimate. My impression is that Fay will hardly weaken at all since Cuba is very skinny and, aside from the one mountain of Pico San Juan, very flat where Fay is crossing.

Judging from Key West radar, the center - still looking very much like a small eyewall to me - appears to have passed Pico San Juan, and is now tapping into northeasterly surface inflow uninhibited by terrain for, arguably, the first time since east of Puerto Rico. I speculate so based upon a darker band of green forming and pointing off northeast in the last twenty minutes.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is a 3,000 foot mountain to its north. That is a mountain even where I'm. Sorry!!!

Matt, so do you agree with what I said? That 3,000 mountain should prevent Fay from ever becoming a hurricane before reaching SW Florida, right?[/quote]


I think it is a very real possiblity that it won't be a hurricane if the new gfs, Ecmwf turns out to be right. But I would think that the NC landfall that might happen it could be.

[cpdaman]

man look at that key west radar......she is on a mission

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

i would wager a small fortune that s fl goes under a tropical storm warning soon

[Extremeweatherguy]

Agree with @Sanibel that Fay is still moving NW on the NHC track. It is not suddenly headed off to the North - that's just the convection expanding in the storm as Fay continues to get better organized.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

You can't say that doesn't look significant going over Cuba right now.

It's the convection around Fay expanding. It's not Fay crossing Cuba.

Funster, you don't know that for a fact. Yes, you may very well be right, but you just never know. Let's wait and see what RECON finds first. If they don't find anything south of Cuba, then it is a good bet that Fay is inland. Hopefully we will know the answer soon.

[SouthFLTropics]

Because Fay is impacting Cuba, we have a 'storm' clearance meaning we can get inside of the 32NM Cuban ADIZ (32NM is the cushion set up from the US Gov't). We were talking with Havana Center while we were flying yesterday... and so is today's aircraft.

Cuba is giving permission for the plane to fly over their airspace. That was the last AF RECON plotted. Another mission is getting closer to Cuba.

Thank you to the Castro's for this permission...The people of the United States...and in particular Florida...appreciate it.

SFT

[NEXRAD]

On the shortwave-IR you can see some nice banding features better forming.

- Jay

[Extremeweatherguy]

Cuban Radar...

[GreenSky]

There is a 3,000 foot mountain to its north. That is a mountain even where I'm. Sorry!!!

Matt, so do you agree with what I said? That 3,000 mountain should prevent Fay from ever becoming a hurricane before reaching SW Florida, right?

I think it is a very real possiblity that it won't be a hurricane if the new gfs, Ecmwf turns out to be right. But I would think that the NC landfall that might happen it could be.[/quote]

So Southwest Florida does not have that much to worry about besides heavy rains/flooding, isolated tornadoes, and sporadic power outages. Kinda like strong summer thunderstorm activity

[AdamFirst]

On the infrared satellite on the NHC site it looks like the new convection is trying to swallow the old over near Camaguey and such

[NDG]

After looking at IR2 loop, to me Fay looks to be still moving NW, with its LLC close to 21.8N & 80.8W

[funster]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

You can't say that doesn't look significant going over Cuba right now.

It's the convection around Fay expanding. It's not Fay crossing Cuba.

Funster, you don't know that for a fact. Yes, you may very well be right, but you just never know. Let's wait and see what RECON finds first. If they don't find anything south of Cuba, then it is a good bet that Fay is inland. Hopefully we will know the answer soon.

That's true. But if I'm wrong and Fay is already moving N and crossing Cuba then the forecast has been badly botched.

[Scorpion]

Certainly looks to be cranking up. If Cuba wasn't there I would think a Cat 2 would be possible.

[Clipper96]

The Cuban radars are very delayed.
Everybody should switch to the Key West one now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... Z&loop=yes

[AdamFirst]

That's true. But if I'm wrong and Fay is already moving N and crossing Cuba then the forecast has been badly botched.

NHC already claimed poor confidence in the track on the 11 PM discussion.

[MGC]

Fay's low level center has been on the western edge of the main convection for a while now. I still think the LLC is over the ocean. Fay is still being sheared by the ULL to its west which has prevented Fay from becoming vertically aligned. The apparent circulation as seen by Key West radar is likely displaced a good ways from the surface circulation. Fay still appears to be moving to the WNW to NW this evening. We shall see what recon finds. As Fay remains an poorly organized TS, it would not be surprising if Fay reforms its center sometime tonight under the deep convection. If this were to occur than Fay could ride up the spine of Florida. IMO, this would be the best case as Fay would remain a weak TS as it passes through the Keys.....MGC

Of course the above is MGC opinion and not an official forecast.

[southerngale]

OT but I think it's pretty neat that we tied the record earlier tonight (about 8:30pm cdt). Just ONE more person and we would have broken it. And Fay is only a TS.




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[NEXRAD]

So Southwest Florida does not have that much to worry about besides heavy rains/flooding, isolated tornadoes, and sporadic power outages. Kinda like strong summer thunderstorm activity

I'd think it to be fair to compare a Category 1 hurricane's impacts to a prolonged severe thunderstorm (without the hail or lightning). That mentioned, one difference between a thunderstorm and a hurricane is the long-duration of the winds. Constant winds can cause more damage than brief, isolated, wind gusts that are of a stronger magnitude based on my comparison of the damages from Charley and Frances across East Central Florida.

- Jay

[Sanibel]

I have to sleep in case I need to evacuate tomorrow. Those who stay up for reconnaissance I think you'll be surprised how close this comes to the NHC track.

Should be interesting tomorrow when I sign back on.

[HurricaneHunter914]

It seems like this storm really likes to get going right before making landfall. I believe that Fay will only remain a strong TS at this rate if she only strengthens right before landfall.

[Evil Jeremy]

OT but I think it's pretty neat that we tied the record earlier tonight (about 8:30pm cdt). Just ONE more person and we would have broken it. And Fay is only a TS.

We tied the record that was set one year to the day lol.