ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Ground_Zero_92]

Track didn't change much.

Looks like they have it coming in just north of Fort Myers. I guess I wasn't too far off or on crack. lol

[cpdaman]

Track didn't change much.

Looks like they have it coming in just north of Fort Myers. I guess I wasn't too far off or on crack. lol

my confidence in that path is shaky right now

[Derek Ortt]

ULL dropped closer to the system

we really need better data observations from over the oceans. We cannot keep having the models being clueless as to how these ULLs move as it really affects track/intensity

[Taffy]

Went to bed after 8 p.m. when the track went way west. I knew it would shift, but I could almost here the collective sigh of relief from the people in Cape Coral, Florida. All the ones that haven't bothered to wood or shutter up their homes... and there are way to many. Aren't they gonna be shocked when they get up for work this morning and find out they SHOULD have done all their preps on Sunday and now get to hang shutters in nasty weather.

SO frustrated with the laxs attitude with so many people here. "Oh, its just a Tropical Storm. No big deal" It only takes one broken window to destroy your home, people. Frustrated, I am. heavy sigh.

I am ready and thankful for Storm2K because I have gotten more honest and accurate information from the people here than I ever would have off the media.. who is not allowed to speak so candidly. Thanks to ALL OF YOU. That is why I come here every year.

Laurie Christy
SW FLorida.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Track didn't change much.

Looks like they have it coming in just north of Fort Myers. I guess I wasn't too far off or on crack. lol

my confidence in that path is shaky right now

Well I agree to an extent that I think it will be moving more NE and across the state. But I agree that Fay seems to have a mind of it's own and this is just my opinion and not an official forecast.

[SouthFLTropics]

ULL dropped closer to the system

we really need better data observations from over the oceans. We cannot keep having the models being clueless as to how these ULLs move as it really affects track/intensity

Derek,

Could you please elaborate on these thoughts a bit and also comment on the NHC's 5:00AM track. How much confidence do you put in their current forecast?

SFT

[Evil Jeremy]

I do not see Fay going back to NW. I only see NNW and North from here on out. With the growing size of the system, rain approaching the keys, and TS warnings now up for the east coast, residents of all of SFL should be completing (or starting, for the unprepared people in SEFL) for major rain and wind today.

The time for waiting to see if the track will flip flop is over. Broward, Miami-Dade, and West Palm Beach counties seem to be unprepared at the moment. I am internally in full storm mode and am bracing for TS impact today and tomorrow.

[Clipper96]

Track didn't change much.

I don't get it - on radar, the center of Fay is along the Cuban coast approx due south of the flat part of the tip of Florida, or well northeast from the chart's orange "current" position.

[Evil Jeremy]

ULL dropped closer to the system

we really need better data observations from over the oceans. We cannot keep having the models being clueless as to how these ULLs move as it really affects track/intensity

Morning Derek. Where do you see Fay moving from here? Back out to the west coast, up the spine of the state, or somewhere else?

[cpdaman]

i see potential flooding threat, especially should she slow down some

look at the echoes just east of florida crikey

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... x&loop=yes

[cpdaman]

ull looks like it some how came east and then North east looks like she is pushing fay up northward and shearing her a good deal now, also convection is weakening near the center

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Clipper96]

ULL dropped closer to the system. we really need better data observations from over the oceans. We cannot keep having the models being clueless as to how these ULLs move as it really affects track/intensity

The ULL tucking in is why I thought there'd be a few hours of left-leaning after the center came off the coast.

[cpdaman]

this storm may miss florida to the east and then perhaps be a carolina threat if i'm reading this crazy ULL correct. WOW

never mind that is above my head, but i do notice the trough axis has pushed into s.C/ ga border , perhaps that was making the ULL act crazy

[Greg]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/02I.Juventud/pdeMAXw01a.gif

I'm sorry, but I still think the center is south and west of where they say it is.

[Derek Ortt]

I think it'll go NNW during the day today then go north

however, with this shear, the intensity could be anywhere from marginal TS to strong cat 1

this should serve as another reminder to all that models have little skill when it comes to predicting upper level features

[tgenius]

I think it'll go NNW during the day today then go north

however, with this shear, the intensity could be anywhere from marginal TS to strong cat 1

this should serve as another reminder to all that models have little skill when it comes to predicting upper level features

Derek.. you live roughly where I live (Kendall) So what do you think we should expect wind and rainfall wise?

[SouthFLTropics]

They sure are taking their time with the discussion...Almost 15 minutes late so far.

SFT

[wxmann_91]

ULL dropped closer to the system

we really need better data observations from over the oceans. We cannot keep having the models being clueless as to how these ULLs move as it really affects track/intensity

Yes, ULL's always seem to throw fits into the track. I never bought into the westward track b/c I knew that the Euro had better handle on these mid/upper level features over data sparse regions than the GFS.

[cpdaman]

derek what was forcing the ULL to the east toward fay, and is this mechanism letting up soon? as far as you can tell? perhaps a ULL not up her rear end would cause her to slow in the fla straits?

[johngaltfla]

They sure are taking their time with the discussion...Almost 15 minutes late so far.

SFT

That's exactly what I was thinking. The models are just not doing well with this one. Until it crosses into the Keys I just do not think we'll get a very accurate picture of this storm. Come on disco.......