ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HURAKAN]

South Florida, Fay has not left entirely the building.

[Sanibel]

See how the storm's NNE edge is delineating the High?

[HURAKAN]

I wonder why the NHC is setting the strength so conservatively. Based on recon data, Fay has strengthened to 60 mph.

Two reasons.

SFMR data are quite unreliable close to the coast, and there seems to be calibration issues remaining. So the SFMR values are suspect.

Another reason is that there are plenty of real-live surface observations around Fay that don't support 60 mph. Haven't even seen any 50 mph reports. Most reports around Fay's center indicate 30-40 kts.

HH914, if you go to the RECON obs thread you will see that many of the reports end with "03" indicating bogus data. When you see that it makes you suspect that the data without "03" isn't entirely reliable. This always happens when a system is close to land.

[cpdaman]

South Florida, Fay has not left entirely the building.

it looks like it will be a more active afternoon than yesterday in a squally sort of way

[micktooth]

Is there a movie of Fay's landfall until now somewhere out there?

This might help you:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_radar.html#a_topad

[HurricaneHunter914]

I wonder why the NHC is setting the strength so conservatively. Based on recon data, Fay has strengthened to 60 mph.

Two reasons.

SFMR data are quite unreliable close to the coast, and there seems to be calibration issues remaining. So the SFMR values are suspect.

Another reason is that there are plenty of real-live surface observations around Fay that don't support 60 mph. Haven't even seen any 50 mph reports. Most reports around Fay's center indicate 30-40 kts.

HH914, if you go to the RECON obs thread you will see that many of the reports end with "03" indicating bogus data. When you see that it makes you suspect that the data without "03" isn't entirely reliable. This always happens when a system is close to land.

Ok, thanks for the info.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I guess they wouldn't drop sondes over land, but wouldn't that be a most excellent coffee table conversation piece?

It would probably ending up plunking the windsurfer guy on the head as he was being discharged from the hospital.

What do we need sondes for when she's sitting right on top of Canaveral/NASA/PAFB?
I think there would be a few WX instruments available there...[/quote][/quote]


There is I am looking for the link......I used to have one... Wxman57 I think had it??. That place has weather stations all over it

[BensonTCwatcher]

here's a cool one

http://www.merrittislandweather.com/

[CrazyC83]

Of course, the surface obs won't tell the whole story as the strongest winds are expected to be offshore in the NE quad.

I agree 45 kt is correct at this point as a blend of flight-level and SFMR estimates, with greater weight on the flight level winds due to the near-shore reliability factors.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Looks like New Orleans is out of the concern zone. GOOD! Hopefully we'll get some fronts down soon and we won't have any more system concerns for 2008. Have a good one!

[storms in NC]

I know Fay will not but I wish she would go just a little more north before turning to give us some rain of of her. It would be nice. My well would be happy too. Wate table is very very lsw here in NC. So if she does that would give SC and NC some good rain

[jlauderdal]

looks like a bit of a "bow" in the line of storm's racing across broward county ENE

probably effect s palm beach thru broward with some gust in the 40's

By jfaul4820

[Dean4Storms]

I think Fay is fixing to move east a bit.

[CrazyC83]

You have to give Fay a gold medal for her strange antics though...

[Dean4Storms]

If she fails to make much more movement today to the north then she will make it into the GOM IMO and be a player for the upper Gulf Coast.

[Steve]

>>Looks like New Orleans is out of the concern zone. GOOD! Hopefully we'll get some fronts down soon and we won't have any more system concerns for 2008. Have a good one!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

[tolakram]

What a nightmare for Melbourne and nearby areas. Look at the total precip estimates so far:

[TideJoe]

If she fails to make much more movement today to the north then she will make it into the GOM IMO and be a player for the upper Gulf Coast.

If she hangs out over land too long, there won't be anything left if it re-enters the GOM.

[baitism]

If she fails to make much more movement today to the north then she will make it into the GOM IMO and be a player for the upper Gulf Coast.

If she hangs out over land too long, there won't be anything left if it re-enters the GOM.

He center is right on the coastline. If anything, she will slowly strengthen.

[ocala]

Question for those in the know.
I'm located in Ocala which is about 80 miles WNW of the center. As the rain bands approach my location they all seem to fizzle out. The same goes for most of the bands on the northern periphery.
Why is that?