ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11861 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:00 am

Image

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES...35 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.


AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...
30 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.


AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...
30 KM...EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#11862 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:05 am

yeah maybe delta but the intial idea of it heading west and going from Florida into the gulf looks like its been dropped by the GFS.
0 likes   

User avatar
latemodel25
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 454
Joined: Sat Sep 04, 2004 4:15 am
Location: parrish fl
Contact:

#11863 Postby latemodel25 » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:06 am

so the tampa area should be spared again from high winds and rain? its amazing how lucky this area has been.
0 likes   

paintplaye
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 380
Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:25 pm

Re:

#11864 Postby paintplaye » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:09 am

KWT wrote:yeah maybe delta but the intial idea of it heading west and going from Florida into the gulf looks like its been dropped by the GFS.


Yea but at the same time other models have dropped farther south.
0 likes   

User avatar
HurryKane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1941
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:08 pm
Location: Diamondhead, Mississippi

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11865 Postby HurryKane » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:10 am

Diva wrote:Well, it's obvious what Fay's favorite toy is......
Image



Hee hee! That was my favorite, too, once upon a time :lol:
Last edited by HurryKane on Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
divanicki75
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Aug 18, 2008 2:23 pm
Location: Goose Creek, SC
Contact:

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11866 Postby divanicki75 » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:10 am

We're finally starting to feel some effects from Fay this morning. We just started getting downpours, winds etc. up here near Charleston.
0 likes   

User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11867 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:11 am

6z GFDL looks ok, has fay coming wnw and then skirting the gom coast. Spreads TS winds all the way up to atlanta and bham.
0 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1432
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11868 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:17 am

Well, Fay looks better than this time yesterday for sure, and she is still over water. Will she make one last gasp at Cat 1 before moving inland? Before everyone yells no, consider this:

1. Fay has a rather large center. I remember Frances in '04 had a large eye, was stationary for about 12 hours. As it resumed Westward movement, its eye slowly contracted, and the storm tightened up somewhat. (Due to friction with land?) I remember the winds going up about 5-10 mph.

2. Looking at the vapor, Fay has awesome outflow, and a repaired oeverall structure vs this time yesterday.

3. High pressure should build today at the surface N of Fay. Fay still has a respectable pressure of 994. Increasing gradient could push winds a bit higher.

NHC acknowleges possibility of some slight intensification, so it should be interesting to see if she can pull it off. For these reasons, I am kind of surprised the NHC dropped their H Watch yesterday, and clearly Fay has surpassed their expectations from that forecast, which predicted no further increases above the 50 mph mark.
Last edited by Emmett_Brown on Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11869 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:20 am

The way Fay is sitting and spinning it appears that she is trapped inside Daytona International Speedway making laps. She just needs to crash already and take her car back to the pits!!! Enough is enough already. Poor Brevard county is going to be known as the new Lost City of Atlantis...

SFT
0 likes   

gurutc
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 23
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:49 am
Location: Columbia,SC

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11870 Postby gurutc » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:24 am

divanicki75 wrote:We're finally starting to feel some effects from Fay this morning. We just started getting downpours, winds etc. up here near Charleston.


What's wild is we've been getting showers and wind since mid-day yesterday here in Columbia, over 300 miles North of the storm center. What does that say about the strength of the ridge?
0 likes   

Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2147
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11871 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:26 am

Fay's outflow is excellent this morning. You can see the fanning to the north and south on visibles. Anyone know where the core of the ridge is now?
0 likes   

User avatar
FlSteel
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 158
Age: 55
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 12:58 pm
Location: Harrisburg NC

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11872 Postby FlSteel » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:44 am

Well here in Jax we are finally seeing the winds this morning. Quite breezey. Still have not had torrential downpours, but I guess that will change later today, if Fay finally decides to come ashore. I'm afraid the winds should pick up pretty well since we will go throught the northwest, north and northeast side of the storm... Fun day ahead, and probably more than that.
0 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1432
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

#11873 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:44 am

Currently, Daytona has a pressure of 994.8 MB, with a NE wind at 12. Radar shows they are in the western edge of the calm eye. I wonder how much lower the pressure is offshore at the actual center.
0 likes   

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1432
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11874 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:50 am

Vis shows big fat Fay... Note the shadow being cast to the N of the center, from the higher topped qual bands.

Image
0 likes   

Toyota Thundra
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 33
Joined: Sat Aug 16, 2008 1:35 am
Location: Riverview FL

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11875 Postby Toyota Thundra » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:53 am

Cloudy and breezy, like it has been for DAYS... My prayers to those on the other coast :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#11876 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 21, 2008 7:59 am

Looks like were geting real close to 3rd FL landfall in Daytona..Will there be a 4th?

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... B&loop=yes
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11877 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:05 am

Well, either Fay is weakening or the center is drifting away from Daytona at the moment.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
tronbunny
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1558
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:18 am
Location: Central FL

Re: Florida Closings - Schools, businesses etc.

#11878 Postby tronbunny » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:09 am

Oh, boy am I irritated. First thing this morning, between 4:30 and 5am, I could hear the wind gusting around our plumbing vents on the roof. Then I checked the local radar. No, Fay hadn't moved in 12 hours! As a matter of fact, in northern Osceola, the rain rate had increased.
So off to the All Fay All Day news. Durnit! not much other than a focus on the horrendous flooding in Brevard. Hey, I know it's bad... a huge number of people commute between the Orlando Metro area and the Space Coast every day. There's localized serious flooding between Kissimmee/Orlando and the Space Coast, effecting transportation and businesses.
Now I hear of gusts to 45mph in the Metro area. I thought the buses weren't supposed to run in winds over 30???
Why didn't Orange, Osceola and Lake (even 4 corners area of Polk) School districts pay attention to the very uncertain 5am update from NHC??
There are gusts over 30 and localized flooding in all of these districts. People are told if they don't HAVE to be out, don't go. But we're sending our kids out, knowing Fay will be passing back through this afternoon. I couldn't make my high schooler stand at the bus stop in the rain and wind. He'd look like a goofball going to school with soaked light khaki slacks and saturated footwear. Not to mention going across a heavily trafficked, narrow lakeshore causeway in a steel wind catcher.
So I drove him in. Why? Because we live in Metro Orlando, where 75% of all residents work in tourism and hospitality, where visitors don't care what your inconveniences are. That theme park, attraction, store or restaurant must be open to serve them.
Consider how silly they all felt when Tuesday's proactive approach turned out to be a bit overdone for the Metro. And when you compare our difficulties to our coastal bretheren, we're Chicken Littles.
Balance ... balance ...
How about we set an example and "excuse" those that perform some act of community service, rather than hope their cars don't get stuck in deep water or on a highway clogged because someone was driving too fast to get to their non-essential job (but essential to their bill collectors).
Maybe Florida needs to re-think it's lack of state labor laws and re-tool it to fit the realities of our geography and climatology.
Grrrrr.
Now look, I've gone on a rant. Perhaps this damn weather is getting to ALL of us!
No, it's not stir crazy, because I'm at work, not 'stuck' at home with a stir-crazy kid.
Fay may be 'just' a tropical storm, but it's workin' my last nerve! :grr: :wall:
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Fay in East Coast of Florida

#11879 Postby cpdaman » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:18 am

think we will see some sort of movement soon

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

is that high pressure sinking down the east coast
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#11880 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 21, 2008 8:19 am

I have to think with Fay weakening as she begins her journey across Florida that she becomes so shallow that instead of the WNW movement she either moves west or WSW in the flow possibly even becoming decoupled with her mid/UL core.
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest