ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[tolakram]

Once you know it's moving SE it's obvious it's moving SE.



So did I miss a forecast of slow SE movement? What a wobbler Fay is.

[Dean4Storms]

As of the 8:00, 29.3 81.2.
Still drifting west with winds near 60.
And of course the pressure dropped to 993 because it's over land.

Yes, that is exactly where I just posted it as being above when I put on LAT/LON and put my cursor on that center it came up with those coordinates

[dixiebreeze]

Now: Pressure: 29.68 in / 1005.0 hPa (Falling)

Don't recall such low pressure here since Frances, Elena, etc.

[tolakram]

Any recommendation for a website or free software to produce these surface plots? or is this something weather professionals have to pay for?

[Dean4Storms]

Geez, this little lady is moving WSW!!!!!!!!

[jlauderdal]

I think someone made this observation about 20 pages ago; but Fay may be the first storm that ends up affecting EVERY county in Florida. From Pensacola to Key West. Escambia to Monroe and all points in between, east to west, north to south. WOW.

If she affects the NW Panhandle, will there be a county unaffected?

Is this a first??

the entire states weather has been effected by fay whether directly or more subtle

[tolakram]

Not sure how to extrapolate this. I think the 5pm position was wrong so I included a line from the 2PM position. Remember this is not a forecast, the idea is to show current movement but when the storm is behaving Fay like, well ...

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST...JUST WEST OF
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA.

[DESTRUCTION5]

LMAO at the idea that this is drifting E? LOL

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[Storm Contractor]

For what it's worth, A local met here in Panama City said it looks to be head more WSW and that the track would equate to an exit well south of Appalachee bay as the NHC had forecast.

[Wthrman13]

Looking at the radar there is some convection trying to get started in the eye.
The center appears to be 29.3 81.1.
Question for the mets.
Why is it that when she was over the ocean the eye got real big but now that she's over land it seems to be getting smaller with more convection toward the center?

Friction-induced low-level convergence over the land.

[paintplaye]

Looking at the radar there is some convection trying to get started in the eye.
The center appears to be 29.3 81.1.
Question for the mets.
Why is it that when she was over the ocean the eye got real big but now that she's over land it seems to be getting smaller with more convection toward the center?

Friction-induced low-level convergence over the land.

Could you explain if you have time?

[HURAKAN]

Great outflow.

[O Town]

4.39 inches today. We have two pumps that pump 2700 gallons a hour in the back yard and they have been running non stop for about 2 hours straight. And its still flooded back there. Last flooding like this was Frances, she was a slow mover too.
But Fay is much worse we have standing water in our shed, which is more like a large garage but separate from the house.
A few big oaks down around the area and my neighbor just had a huge limb fall and break out the back window of their car.
Go Away Fay!!!

[CrazyC83]

Anyone think this will re-intensify again using the north Florida lakes as energy?

[Brent]

Once you know it's moving SE it's obvious it's moving SE.

So did I miss a forecast of slow SE movement? What a wobbler Fay is.

I see zero movement AGAIN. Is this storm EVER going to move?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Slow mover, is all I can tell. Lots of rain.


Winds gusting to tropical storm force at MCO and ORL. Well inland.

I used to live in Orlando, FL 32813 back in 1983 and 1984, not too far from an airport, which I assume is ORL. Lots of time on the OBT. Good times.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anyone think this will re-intensify again using the north Florida lakes as energy?

Not me.

[O Town]

Slow mover, is all I can tell. Lots of rain.


Winds gusting to tropical storm force at MCO and ORL. Well inland.

I used to live in Orlando, FL 32813 back in 1983 and 1984, not too far from an airport, which I assume is ORL. Lots of time on the OBT. Good times.

Ahm, you know what hangs around OBT don't you? LOL

[srainhoutx]

Slow mover, is all I can tell. Lots of rain.


Winds gusting to tropical storm force at MCO and ORL. Well inland.

I used to live in Orlando, FL 32813 back in 1983 and 1984, not too far from an airport, which I assume is ORL. Lots of time on the OBT. Good times.

Ahm, you know what hangs around OBT don't you? LOL

Busted...Back on Topic.. Slow mover and great presentation. Some vortex.

[Wthrman13]

Looking at the radar there is some convection trying to get started in the eye.
The center appears to be 29.3 81.1.
Question for the mets.
Why is it that when she was over the ocean the eye got real big but now that she's over land it seems to be getting smaller with more convection toward the center?

Friction-induced low-level convergence over the land.

Could you explain if you have time?

With a synoptic-scale low pressure system, in the absence of friction, the flow around the center of the low will tend to become balanced such that the inward pressure gradient force trying to push the air directly toward the center is exactly counterbalanced by the sum of the Coriolis force and the centrifugal force. This is called gradient wind balance, in which the flow is along isobars and doesn't converge in toward the center. Over water, the friction is low: there is still convergence toward the center, but most of the energy in the wind is in the rotation around the center. However, once a tropical cyclone (or any other large-scale cyclone, for that matter) moves from over water to over land, suddenly the friction over the surface becomes a lot greater. Now the winds are no longer in balance, because the pressure gradient force stays the same, while the centrifugal and Coriolis forces weaken. This happens because both the centrifugal and Coriolis forces are dependent on the wind speed. When the cyclone moves over land, increased friction slows the winds down, and the pressure gradient force takes over, pushing the air in closer to the center of the storm (increased convergence). It's the same effect that causes the tea leaves on the bottom of a cup of tea to bunch toward the center when you stir the tea.

Ironically, even though the winds weaken, such friction-induced convergence can actually intensify the storm in the short term, because the air is able to get closer to the center before being balanced by centrifugal force, making the winds near the center stronger, and the increased convergence can enhance thunderstorm formation near the center. The effect is short-lived for a TC, though, because the TC needs the moisture and heat flux from the warm water to keep the warm core near the center, which maintains the pressure gradient. Over land, this becomes almost absent (again, most of the time!) and the low pressure weakens both due to friction retarding the winds and due to the loss of significant moisture flux from the surface.

Sorry if this is too technical, but I wanted to be thorough.