ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Enzo Aquarius]

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20
NM...
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO SAVANNAH GA EXTENDING FROM 20
NM TO 40 NM...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 218 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
A LARGE SHOWER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35
KT...9 NM WEST OF EDISTO OFFSHORE REEF...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 32
KT.

What is it with Fay and the east coast?

[Nexus]

Here is a map centered on the 2PM position, with a radar overlay. Center is right north of Trenton, which you can easily see if you animate it with the menu below the map. This has moved due west since I fell asleep at 5AM, when it was over Gainesville.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... 900&zoom=9

[Sabanic]

Fay is not going to have enough time over the Gulf to get anywhere close to being a hurricane, I think the Gulf will just help her maintain TS status until her second landfall somewhere from the panhandle to MS.

THE GREAT ONE SPEAKS.

[jlauderdal]

HE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR.
EAST CNTL BROWARD COUNTY IN SO. FL.

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 220 PM EDT.NATL WEATHER SVC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PORT
EVERGLADES.MOVING NE AT 22 MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR.
PORT EVERGLADES.
LAUDERDALE BY THE SEA.
& SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

[Nexus]

seems like once again a small shift in track could have huge implications on intensity

Sure seems that way. Granted, even a 72 hour due west track will still have much of the northern quadrants over land, but Fay has proven to be a fighter.

wobble watchers on level 6 alert.

[hazmat]

Well Fay is reminding us here in Central Fl that she's still here...lots of rain, thunder, winds. NWS Ruskin has SWS out for CHAROLETTE< Lee, Hardee, Highlands, and Desoto counties...gusts to 45mph, torrential rains, lightning, and funnelcloud potential.
To add to those posting river floodings, the Peace River is under warning & is expected to overflow on Saturday.

[jaxfladude]

Just got called home from work: my sub-division is flooded on the roads so far only that, the pond behind my home is very high....
First Coast area under the gun and has been since pre-dawn today, hopefully the worst is in sight but not now...prayers requested(if allowed). may go to nearby shelter tonight if the waters are too high for my family's comfort.......just got here BTW....

[Enzo Aquarius]

HE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR.
EAST CNTL BROWARD COUNTY IN SO. FL.

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 220 PM EDT.NATL WEATHER SVC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PORT
EVERGLADES.MOVING NE AT 22 MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR.
PORT EVERGLADES.
LAUDERDALE BY THE SEA.
& SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

Now that shows you that Fay is really affecting ALL of Florida.

[KWT]

Well still looks like due west to me and still looks like it may only just end up over water, though it would probably buy it 12-15hrs over water its current speed with how messy the system is I doubt it does much strengthening if at all and just keeps it steady before its next approach to land.

[mutley]

Looking at radar, Fay seems to be trying (and mostly succeeding) to build a large continuous band of convection around the center, connecting with that mess in Jax, about 150 miles in diameter. I don't think Fay is strengthening, but doesn't this mean organizing?

[Sabanic]

Well still looks like due west to me and still looks like it may only just end up over water, though it would probably buy it 12-15hrs over water its current speed with how messy the system is I doubt it does much strengthening if at all and just keeps it steady before its next approach to land.

Well land sure doesn't slow her down much. So land and water combined may be just what she wants

[cpdaman]

good link steve

brutal storms in coastal SE florida

surprising these bands are still influencing such a wide area (SE florida up to SC) and west

[Stormcenter]

Looking at radar, Fay seems to be trying (and mostly succeeding) to build a large continuous band of convection around the center, connecting with that mess in Jax, about 150 miles in diameter. I don't think Fay is strengthening, but doesn't this mean organizing?

In my opinion (if it means anything) she looks better then she did this morning.

[Ivanhater]

[cpdaman]

appears center is now near 30.1 83 per visual seems like circuation tightened a bit NW especially in last frame.

although it looks a lot further south on ivan hater's map, ......???

[x-y-no]

HE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR.
EAST CNTL BROWARD COUNTY IN SO. FL.

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 220 PM EDT.NATL WEATHER SVC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PORT
EVERGLADES.MOVING NE AT 22 MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR.
PORT EVERGLADES.
LAUDERDALE BY THE SEA.
& SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

I'm right in the south end of that line now - It's a pretty good one.

[jlauderdal]

HE NATL WEATHER SVC IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR.
EAST CNTL BROWARD COUNTY IN SO. FL.

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 220 PM EDT.NATL WEATHER SVC DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PORT
EVERGLADES.MOVING NE AT 22 MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR.
PORT EVERGLADES.
LAUDERDALE BY THE SEA.
& SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

Now that shows you that Fay is really affecting ALL of Florida.

thats for sure,

235 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

.A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR EAST
CNTL BROWARD COUNTY.

AT 235 PM EDT.WEATHER SVC DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH.MOVING NE AT 19 MPH.

THE BROAD ROTATION WITH THIS STORM IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
JUST NE OF INTERSTATE 595.

SOUTH FL TORNADOES MAY AT TIMES BE SMALL & NARROW BUT THEY ARE
STILL DANGEROUS. THEY CAN EASILY FLIP A VEHICLE OR TRAILER OR CAUSE
LARGE TREES TO FALL. TAKE COVER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING IMMEDIATELY.

[Ivanhater]

appears center is now near 30.1 83 per visual seems like circuation tightened a bit NW

Look at surface obs, center is further south than that

[Frank P]

appears center is now near 30.1 83 per visual seems like circuation tightened a bit NW

Yeah, you can see that effect using this radar loop...

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

looks to be well right (above) of the forecast point

[Stormcenter]

appears center is now near 30.1 83 per visual seems like circuation tightened a bit NW especially in last frame.

although it looks a lot further south on ivan hater's map, ......???

It is getting better organized.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12