ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Will the John Hope rule apply here? The late John Hope said in his Tropical Updates that if a system didnt form before it reached the islands,then it will wait to form in the Western Caribbean.

really, I dont think thats a correct statement, seeing as the eastern caribbean graveyard is sort of a myth. Dennis is a good counter arguement to Bob Hope's statement. But I dont think development will occur till the central caribbean since its so disorganized right now. But I do believe this will eventually develop.

[Blown Away]

Barfing out an outflow boundary. Not in any hurry to develop...

Yes, but this was not from the center. That was from the convection to the southeast, and that is dissipating, while new convection forms closer to what may be the mlc. This is the most persistence 94L has shown its whole life and does not deserve to be played down. This could become a rather strong storm if it does develop, and based on the strength of the ridge, probably will become a US threat down the road.

I'm not playing anything down, JB sees a Labor Day weekend hurricane threat to the SE US.

Just noting this does not seem well organized at the moment.

In order to make it to the SE US by Labor Day it will have to come from 94L, 95L, or something homegrown. Not enough time fro something in the E Atlantic to make it to US by that time.

[perk]

Barfing out an outflow boundary. Not in any hurry to develop...

Yes, but this was not from the center. That was from the convection to the southeast, and that is dissipating, while new convection forms closer to what may be the mlc. This is the most persistence 94L has shown its whole life and does not deserve to be played down. This could become a rather strong storm if it does develop, and based on the strength of the ridge, probably will become a US threat down the road.

I'm not playing anything down, JB sees a Labor Day weekend hurricane threat to the SE US.

Just noting this does not seem well organized at the moment.

JB may be right, but i don't think the labor storm JB is speaking of is 94L.

[cpdaman]

not so sure S fl tropics

frank strait on his friday evening accuweather tropical forecast shows both sytems (94 and 95) curving NW so that would lead me to believe that 94 L is the culprit (in his opinion)

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blog ... pecial.asp

looks to be consolidating to me and more turning circa 11/ 58.5 or59 and showing signs of wanting to gain at leat a lil latitude

[Ed Mahmoud]

As of yesterday, from watching videos, I think it was 94L JB was watching, which he expected to come North. He is also watching 95L, and possible 'home brew' from a non-tropical disturbance well East of the US East Coast.

[Sanibel]

This one is moving quickly through 58W. Last year some of the stronger storms moved quickly through this area at this latitude.

[Clipper96]

Will the John Hope rule apply here? The late John Hope said in his Tropical Updates that if a system didnt form before it reached the islands,then it will wait to form in the Western Caribbean.

The "Hope rule" has been broke in recent years; systems have developed (if not frequently) in the eastern Caribbean.

[ConvergenceZone]

Will the John Hope rule apply here? The late John Hope said in his Tropical Updates that if a system didnt form before it reached the islands,then it will wait to form in the Western Caribbean.

really, I dont think thats a correct statement, seeing as the eastern caribbean graveyard is sort of a myth. Dennis is a good counter arguement to Bob Hope's statement. But I dont think development will occur till the central caribbean since its so disorganized right now. But I do believe this will eventually develop.

Hey Cheezy, did you really mean to say "Bob Hope"??

[Stratosphere747]

As of yesterday, from watching videos, I think it was 94L JB was watching, which he expected to come North. He is also watching 95L, and possible 'home brew' from a non-tropical disturbance well East of the US East Coast.

I can't say for certain as I personally don't care for JB, but he may have been looking at the energy or formation to occur more to the N from the original 94l area. What we now are looking at is the short lived 95l (before it was changed) being the focus of development and much further S.

No idea if he has updated his thoughts today...

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
More convection is popping this afternoon....

[Sanibel]

Note that the convection in the eastern Caribbean could be the remnants of the original 94L that went WAY down but came back.

[Derek Ortt]

Will the John Hope rule apply here? The late John Hope said in his Tropical Updates that if a system didnt form before it reached the islands,then it will wait to form in the Western Caribbean.

I could name a very long list of storms that formed in the EC in recent years

[cycloneye]

025
ABNT20 KNHC 231752
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ABOUT
75 MILES EAST OF PENSACOLA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION BUT NO
EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS WAVE SHOULD
SPREAD SQUALLY WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A
LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[catastrophic]

the yelow line: is the path that the storm has already tackenacoerding to the s2k map

the green line: goes directley west from the current center acording to the s2k map

and the white line: shows the direction it has gone from the last 2 points

[abajan]

Note that the convection in the eastern Caribbean could be the remnants of the original 94L that went WAY down but came back.

So we may be dealing with a split personality then? Perhaps it needs a psychiatrist rather than a meteorologist.

[OuterBanker]

I'm confused, a few days ago when 94L was posted it was the easternmost blob.

Then I thought 95L was going to be the big blob behind it and to the south. Well. It seems now that 94 was that bigger blob and 95L is the northern blob which I didn't see at all.

So my question is wasn't 94L the smaller blob that was in front of the bigger blob the one are now calling 94L.

Like I said, I’m confused

[OuterBanker]

Actually, I meant westernmost ( I told you that I was confused)

[marcus B]

I remember seeing the GFS take a Hurricane to Corpus Christi on Labor Day earlier this week. I think it was Monday.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

THE 1010 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS 11N55W MOVING WEST 10 TO
15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 10.5N
BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. OTHER NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ COVER THE AREA FROM 9.5N TO 13N
BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SPREADING ACROSS TRINIDAD AT THIS TIME. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL
TO SOME DEGREE IF THIS ENTIRE AREA OF ITCZ CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION MAINTAINS ITSELF AND MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD
VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

[DESTRUCTION5]

HWRF shoots the Mona passage and GFDL says no go for the 12Z