ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Don't know if it is just a wobble or not, but the clear area at the center of circulation does seem to have wobbled more North than West.


I think this could shoot the gap between Hispaniola and Cuba, and be a big deal in the Bahamas.


Not at all sure of that, and even less sure JB gets his Florida or SE US storm, but it seems very possible.

Since tropical depressions have eye features or eye like features, and not eyes, I will say, deeper convection is now wrapping around the Western side of the eye like feature.

members can see this NW wobble or more "poleward" pull here:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[boca]

So according to the models Depression 7 might miss S Florida to the SW and we might dodge a bullet.

With the persistent SW flow we have had this year in SFL, I'm thinking a Fay like track or just E of SFL.

I don't know it depends on the weakness caused by Fay annd how fast the trough lifts out and high pressure builds back in. Its all up in the air.I just don't think this will have the same track as Fay.I agree with the NHC so far on track.

[gatorcane]

GFS is showing some major weakening of the ridge across Florida in 5 days as a strong trough sweeps through the Great Lakes.

I am not sold on WNW well south of Florida by any means.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Probably just a wobble as someone else just mentioned the steering flow looks to be wnw'rly

[Stephanie]

What time is recon supposed to get there?

Around 2pm ET.

Even without recon this should be upgraded to a tropical storm at 2. It's hard to ignore what is seen.

I think that if they are going to send out recon, we may as well wait for their data before declaring it as such. That's more conservative and we don't need the NHC to "hype" any storms. They are at least being responsible because it is their job to do so.

[hurricanefloyd5]

So according to the models Depression 7 might miss S Florida to the SW and we might dodge a bullet.

With the persistent SW flow we have had this year in SFL, I'm thinking a Fay like track or just E of SFL.

I don't know it depends on the weakness caused by Fay annd how fast the trough lifts out and high pressure builds back in. Its all up in the air.I just don't think this will have the same track as Fay.I agree with the NHC so far on track.

I have a feeling that it could pull an andrew but father north?????

[Stephanie]

:uarrow: GFS is showing some major weakening of the ridge across Florida in 5 days as a strong trough sweeps through the Great Lakes.

I am not sold on WNW well south of Florida by any means.

I think that we've gotten that point by now, gator.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This satellite loop allows one to see Gustav to be and its likely targets. And it updates twice as frequently as the SSD site.

[Blown Away]

members can see this NW wobble or more "poleward" pull here:
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I agree a NNW wobble at the end. It sure is nice when TD's have an eye to follow?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

:uarrow: GFS is showing some major weakening of the ridge across Florida in 5 days as a strong trough sweeps through the Great Lakes.

I am not sold on WNW well south of Florida by any means.

But some of the forecast I have seen are already showing this trough not being nearly as strong as originally forecast. As example it was forecast to sweep through the gulf states, now from what I have read it might stall out around the ark la miss region and lift back out.

[jlauderdal]

TD 7 forecasting contest: viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102744

good idea, im looking forward to checking out how some of the contestants deal with the pressure vs. wind relationship

[perk]

:uarrow: GFS is showing some major weakening of the ridge across Florida in 5 days as a strong trough sweeps through the Great Lakes.

I am not sold on WNW well south of Florida by any means.

I think that we've gotten that point by now, gator.

Gator point well taken.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Dare I say it? An area central on the convection appears to have cleared out - lets hope its dry air and not the E word already.

[Noles2006]

deja vu!

CYCLONE MIKE arguing for a westward track... gatorcane arguing for an eastward track...

gc won round 1...

who will win round 2???

[ColdFusion]

Dare I say it? An area central on the convection appears to have cleared out - lets hope its dry air and not the E word already.

Welcome to the discussion, lol.

[tgenius]

And right on cue... WSVN has Tracking TD7 on front and center of webpage... if it becomes TS by 5 or even hurricane.. watch out.

[Sanibel]

I think with this nudge N of WNW it is moving towards the weakness and setting up under it.

That's why I said to watch for a continuation of rightward tendency and a possible miss of Florida to the east.

[Ground_Zero_92]

I think with this nudge N of WNW it is moving towards the weakness and setting up under it.

That's why I said to watch for a continuation of rightward tendency and a possible miss of Florida to the east.

I hope you're right and it becomes a fish.

[wxman57]

The NHC was clearly caught off-guard by the rapid development this morning. I don't buy that first track for a second. Moving at 2.5 kts at the end is a big hedge because they don't know where to put it. GFS still shows a strong ridge building to its north over the next few days. That argues for a track just north of Jamaica Wednesday morning and then west (or south of west) to the Yucatan. There are no indications of a trof in the eastern Gulf that would allow for a turn there on the 06Z GFS and so far not on the 12Z GFS. In fact, the 12Z GFS now sees the storm for the first time and indicates a west track from near Jamaica, probably toward the Yucatan but it's not all in yet.

[Stephanie]

deja vu!

CYCLONE MIKE arguing for a westward track... gatorcane arguing for an eastward track...

gc won round 1...

who will win round 2???

As long as it's a civil disagreement, then everything is cool...