ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[stormy1970al]

It is going to be a long week again. The local mets in the Mobile area are saying to keep a watch on it.

[Recurve]

And in the worst case scenario, it won't take more than 24 hours to get everyone who wants to go north of I-10, would it?

[Wx_Warrior]

Would be something if our south Tejas brothers had to get prepared after all this NE Florida, etc, talk...

[Sabanic]

And in the worst case scenario, it won't take more than 24 hours to get everyone who wants to go north of I-10, would it?

It shouldn't but you never know for sure

[gatorcane]

So if I am seeing things right, Gustav has barely cleared the first NHC forecast point from 5pm EST?

wow then it is crawling -- members can click "forecast points" in this loop to see them.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

[lrak]

Would be something if our south Tejas brothers had to get prepared after all this NE Florida, etc, talk...

hey now, I'm planning a BBQ and surf....not boarding up!

[cheezyWXguy]

Would be something if our south Tejas brothers had to get prepared after all this NE Florida, etc, talk...

Who said anything about NE florida? Northern gulf looks most likely, but stx isnt out of the question. Nonetheless i really doubt it will get there. I dont think the high will be strong enough to support that.

[freeroam]

And in the worst case scenario, it won't take more than 24 hours to get everyone who wants to go north of I-10, would it?

I need at least 4 days to rent the uhaul and load my entire new kitchen and as much of my newly renovated Katrina house as possible and another 17 hours to drive to Houston. So yes, I am keeping an eye on the models, the forum, and the NHC. Thanks to all of you that post info about the models and how to read them.

[Steve]

>>I think many are getting worked up over nothing right now
looking at the models and over analyzing them. All you
need to do is listen to the NHC and follow their advice.

Then what are you or any of the rest of us doing on here?

>>Gustav does have a good chance of once in the GOM of going west into So Tex/Mexico.

Not saying it does or it doesn't. But what about that comment from earlier?

>>Of course we all know how crazy that "72-hour" plan really is for coastal LA!! I wanna see how many folks down in Terrebonne, Lafourche, and Lower Plaquemines - not to mention the upper parishes - really heed that supposed plan...

As one who lives in Lafourche, I'm laughing right along with you. Yeah, like my employer (or anyone else's) is going to let us have 72 hours advance notice on a random storm that might be near Miami or Cuba or something. Not going to happen just like it wouldn't for anyone else out there. Ultimately it's up to us to make our own personal decisions, but you're not going to get 72 hours under any circumstances. Better hope, like with Katrina, you're looking at a Monday type landfall and have 2 or 3 days over the weekend to get out.

/but what you gonna do?

Steve

[Wx_Warrior]

I have 2 plans, Steve I'll still have my crow (if needed).

[SeaBrz_FL]

Everyone needs to take a deep (again) breath and chill.
I think many are getting worked up over nothing right now looking at the models and over analyzing them. All you need to do is listen to the NHC and follow their advice. Anyway you should already have your plans in place anyway if you live anywhere along the Gulf coast or Eastern Atlantic coast so there is really not much anyone can but wait and see. I'm hoping he just meets a painful death.

I normally would just be monitoring a Gustav-storm at this point, and not the least "worked up", but since I just extracted over four inches of Fay-rain from my home, forgive me for being a little more concerned over the track. Maybe it's the constant drone of the 14 dryer fans and three dehumidifiers whirring in my house right now that has me anxious, or perhaps the roof leak on my two-year-old roof, but I guarantee you that my initial plans were in place -- a week ago.

[Steve]

haha

Yeah, not a problem. Hoping you guys catch a break as well. Thinking Gustav at least has the potential to be the "big one" this year. Hopefully we both skate by.

Steve

[Ixolib]

And in the worst case scenario, it won't take more than 24 hours to get everyone who wants to go north of I-10, would it?

Not sure on that, I'm just thinking a panic run at 24 hours is much more likely than a careful evacuation at 72 hours. Human nature is, well, human!! And dem folks down the bayou - even dem yats up in Orleans - are typically more stubborn than most...

[Sanibel]

Slowdowns often precede track changes but this one seems to be crawling along the trop points so far.

A crawling storm would be bad for Haiti but the worst deep convection seems to be staying away from Haiti so far.

[crazycajuncane]

>>I think many are getting worked up over nothing right now
looking at the models and over analyzing them. All you
need to do is listen to the NHC and follow their advice.

Then what are you or any of the rest of us doing on here?

>>Gustav does have a good chance of once in the GOM of going west into So Tex/Mexico.

Not saying it does or it doesn't. But what about that comment from earlier?

>>Of course we all know how crazy that "72-hour" plan really is for coastal LA!! I wanna see how many folks down in Terrebonne, Lafourche, and Lower Plaquemines - not to mention the upper parishes - really heed that supposed plan...

As one who lives in Lafourche, I'm laughing right along with you. Yeah, like my employer (or anyone else's) is going to let us have 72 hours advance notice on a random storm that might be near Miami or Cuba or something. Not going to happen just like it wouldn't for anyone else out there. Ultimately it's up to us to make our own personal decisions, but you're not going to get 72 hours under any circumstances. Better hope, like with Katrina, you're looking at a Monday type landfall and have 2 or 3 days over the weekend to get out.

/but what you gonna do?

Steve

I agree. Not many employers are going to pull the trigger to stop work and production unless it's 24 - 48 hours out. It's just the reality. Now this also depends on the strength of the storm. If you have 5 models all within 50 miles with a Cat 5 Hurricane you better be packed and ready in 72 hours.

[wxman57]

It appears to me that Gustav will very likely stay south of Cuba as it treks across the NW Caribbean. The trough to its north is about to leave Gustav behind with strong ridging developing in the trough's wake. I see no way but a turn to the west before it can get to the latitude. I would fully expect the NHC forecast to continue trending left with time.

Agreed. Might not reach Haiti before the west turn, too. I think we're about to see a significant south/west track shift from NHC. They can't stick with that track straight across the whole length of Cuba right into the ridge for much longer.

[gtalum]

The 11 pm isn't out yet, so I'm guessing there is a big track change.

Edit: Just came in: track moved west and south.

[rockyman]

Another big shift west:

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 23.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2032.shtml?

[baygirl_1]

And in the worst case scenario, it won't take more than 24 hours to get everyone who wants to go north of I-10, would it?

It shouldn't but you never know for sure

Yeah, anyone who was stuck on I-65 in the evacuation for Hurricane Ivan 4 years ago would probably disagree. It took at least double the usual time to get where you were going. Not nice! Add in the Labor Day weekend factor, hmm....
Well, I sure hope Gustav is a nice Swede and behaves himself!

[Air Force Met]

It appears to me that Gustav will very likely stay south of Cuba as it treks across the NW Caribbean. The trough to its north is about to leave Gustav behind with strong ridging developing in the trough's wake. I see no way but a turn to the west before it can get to the latitude. I would fully expect the NHC forecast to continue trending left with time.

Agreed. Might not reach Haiti before the west turn, too. I think we're about to see a significant south/west track shift from NHC. They can't stick with that track straight across the whole length of Cuba right into the ridge for much longer.

Latest track is out...its the AFM track outlines earlier today. Clipping Haiti...skirting the southern coast of Cuba and then crossing the western end of Cuba into the GoM.

Gosh...now I agree with the NHC. That stinks.