ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Wx_Warrior]

I dont see 95L being strong to steer something so I will discount the CMC as I will discount the GFS (strengthened)...

Link for new for UKMET?

[PTrackerLA]

Holy **** on the GFDL

[Wx_Warrior]

Yeppers, that looks to b a Louisiana landfall there (still way early).

[SunnyThoughts]

158 knots...isn't that 180 mph or so? OK...time to cry mercy. Thats just unthinkable.

[artist]

artist,its 902 mbs,wow!

thanks cycloneye. I hope that does not pan out!

[jenmrk]

Is just seems unreal for that to actually happen. I remember after Ivan feeling so shell shocked. I have evacuated for every storm except Ivan- I really regret that decision. I will be out of here fast if this pans out!

[artist]

is it not true that a storm that strong can steer itself? I hope that makes sense.

[PTrackerLA]

:uarrow: Yeppers, that looks to b a Louisiana landfall there (still way early).

Yes, thankfully it's still early but it sure has sped up Gustav compared to the last 126h point. Time for bed after seeing that!

[Aric Dunn]

00z hwrf...... cat 5 pressure 902mb lol

gfdl... cat 4/5 pressure 914mb.... but its moving it to fast

[nolecaster]

I'm usually just a lurker....but someone in the discussion today mentioned that the last time that both the GFDL and HWRF did this in tandem was during the 2005 Katrina and Rita monsters.

This is terrible. People will be shocked tomorrow when they see these model runs.

[Duddy]

I've tought my wife how to read these models. When I showed her that she nearly fainted. It doesn't help that Texas is back in the danger zone. A storm that strong could care less about any high pressures. It'll plow right through it.

This is going to be one of THOSE storms. You guys know what I mean? Another Andrew possibly. It sucks that we KNOW that it will hit the US.

[TSmith274]

Alright. This isn't fun anymore. If this stuff verifies, there is no God.

[haml8]

[Duddy]

Alright. This isn't fun anymore. If this stuff verifies, there is no God.

Oh man, look, we're still easily a week out. Things COULD change. But in saying that, it's the same as -removed- it on someone else.

I feel pretty good in saying that central Texas is shielded from storms. So, I'm not worried for our area. But I pray for the people in the path of this potential record setter.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yea,,,relax for a second or two...I'm never a believer of GFDL after 3-4 days. Sorry just my opinion and was told that by several...High pressure will help. May not 100% but "plowing" isn't the right description.

[artist]

when I clicked on your iamge I had a video pop up with it.

[Steve]

>>Holy **** on the GFDL

Yeah, that's pretty horrific. If if verifies, just all of you guys remember that we brought a unique culture, great food, oil and gas, shipping, trade and fun from South Louisiana. We knew how to do things right.

Steve

[Wx_Warrior]

Come on Steve-o....Plenty of time for tracks to change.

[TSmith274]

As I did on another board... I leave my fellow New Orleanians, Louisianians, and Gulf Coast brethren with this comforting line of thoughts before you go off to bed...

"As I head off to bed, I leave you with this comforting thought... First, yesterday this thing was just an invest. Second, that means that there has been limited time to get a fix on many of the most important factors in the strength and direction of this storm. Third, think of how far west things have trended today. Fourth, with that in mind, keep the faith that it will continue to shift west. While I don't wish this on anyone, we certainly don't need it. And lastly, remember that we basically have no idea how to forecast intensity... so perhaps it will not be a major in the GOM, although I personally believe it will be. Remember, these are long-term forecasts. Now get some rest.

Sorry to clutter this thread with this... delete if you wish...

[Hurrilurker]

00z GFDL has lowest pressure of 916 mbs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

HWRF animation.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Both in good agreement, and both showing a northward hook after passing the western tip of Cuba, avoiding the Yucatan. Scary for the U.S. Of course it's too far away to panic but it seems pretty likely at this point its going to be at least some sort of major storm, and in the Gulf, which however you look at it is not good.