ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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dwg71
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2421 Postby dwg71 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:21 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Maybe you should not just look at the popular models and look outside the box.....

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh


Rock,

The majority of the board will have no idea how to navigate to the correct area you want them to look at...;)

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png




Why would you look at 6z models when we have newer runs of most of them. Consensous is now for a hit on western Cuba and up towards central gulf coast. That may change.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2422 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:24 am

dwg71 wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Maybe you should not just look at the popular models and look outside the box.....

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh


Rock,

The majority of the board will have no idea how to navigate to the correct area you want them to look at...;)

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png




Why would you look at 6z models when we have newer runs of most of them. Consensous is now for a hit on western Cuba and up towards central gulf coast. That may change.


I guarantee you it WILL change.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2423 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:26 am

It's weird... I get more sick to my stomach now when I see a Cat-3 pointed at New Orleans than I do when I see a Cat-5 pointed toward the Panhandle...
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2424 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:26 am

Models are pretty accurate only a few days out,as they were with Fay's track.This morning I saw the animation of the official NHC track.It takes Gustave across the tip of Haiti,then tracks south of Cuba before making a right turn over the tip of Cuba.I would say this is GOM hurricane
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2425 Postby cpdaman » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:27 am

remember that ULL's are notoriously poorly forecast by models

and was a reason why fay deviated to the right of track and accelerated over Cuba

any body think the ULL dropping south NNE of hispanola can throw a "curve ball"
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2426 Postby twister » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:27 am

Noles2006 wrote:It's weird... I get more sick to my stomach now when I see a Cat-3 pointed at New Orleans than I do when I see a Cat-5 pointed toward the Panhandle...


I second your thoughts.
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#2427 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:27 am

If you look back at climatology and search all CAT 1 (what Gustav is right now) hurricanes in August that have passed within 65 nautical miles of where Gustav is currently located, you'll be surprised. There have been only 3:

Two hit Florida
1 hit Texas

Now if you expand the search and look at all storms and hurricanes (not just CAT 1) for the query above, you will find:

East of Florida: 1
South Florida: 3
Panhandle of Florida: 2
Yucatan Pen.: 4
Western GOM (west of south central LA): 6

Climatology suggests Gustav would either stay in the Eastern GOM or Florida or head much more west toward the Yucatan or far Western GOM....

Climatology does not favor the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Note: Climatology is just a reference and no forecast should be based on climatology alone.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:29 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#2428 Postby dwg71 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:28 am

appears to be taking a beeline for haiti
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2429 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:30 am

dwg71 wrote:
Why would you look at 6z models when we have newer runs of most of them. Consensous is now for a hit on western Cuba and up towards central gulf coast. That may change.


I dunno. Maybe cause the 12z runs just started rolling out. Anyways... Just realized this isn't the model thread.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2430 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:32 am

ROCK wrote:Though I wont rule out a Mexico hit, but the weakness in the ridge is pretty uniform with most models now. Once it works around the edge of hp it will move nw to n and wxman and I agree that it may hook nne towards the end. I think fl panhandle.



They will change again and again....[/quote]


yes they will.....got to admit though those 06Z runs look pretty unified for a Yucatan hit in a few days....[/quote]


thanks Scott.....BTW- where is everyone getting there 12z runs from.....I havent seen them today....:D
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2431 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:32 am

Once it's in the GOMEX then whats keeping Gustav from turning to the east and hit florida?????????
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2432 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:33 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:
dwg71 wrote:
Why would you look at 6z models when we have newer runs of most of them. Consensous is now for a hit on western Cuba and up towards central gulf coast. That may change.


I dunno. Maybe cause the 12z runs just started rolling out. Anyways... Just realized this isn't the model thread.



bingo Scott.... :wink:
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2433 Postby gtalum » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:33 am

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:Once it's in the GOMEX then whats keeping Gustav from turning to the east and hit florida?????????


A large ridge of high pressure.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2434 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:36 am

gtalum wrote:
hurricanefloyd5 wrote:Once it's in the GOMEX then whats keeping Gustav from turning to the east and hit florida?????????


A large ridge of high pressure.



oh ok ty so if it weaken then the Hurricane could move up the florida coast or if the high moves, right????????
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2435 Postby alan1961 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:38 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
artist wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:finally..

and image and there is a an eye popping out with deep convection all around it..



not fair Aric! :grr: It is still showing black for me!

use this site..
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
it updates normally every 10 to 15 minutes


is this an auto update or do you have to refresh the page?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2436 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:38 am

Noles2006 wrote:It's weird... I get more sick to my stomach now when I see a Cat-3 pointed at New Orleans than I do when I see a Cat-5 pointed toward the Panhandle...


its been said over and over, 5 day tracks just don't verify, im not being a wise-a** when i say you want to be right on the line on a 5 day because there is a 300 mile error at 5 days, one of these times the nhc track will verify but so far they just don't so before everyone starts extrapolating out these runs take a step back and see what transpires, the atmosphere is fluid not stuck in time, in fact its already changed immensely since i started writing this..that being said, all interest from houston to tampa should be watching and be ready this weekend to act if required. I have been on the line so many times i feel like a tight rope walker and you know how many times I actually was directly hit by a system..not many.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2437 Postby gtalum » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:39 am

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:
oh ok ty so if it weaken then the Hurricane could move up the florida coast or if the high moves, right????????


Theoretically, yes.

However, it appears that any possible weakening of the ridge should come late enough that any NNE turn would only affect the panhandle, not the peninsula. As you can probably see, current discussion is along the lines that the ridge may possibly be strong enough to push Gustav all the way to Mexico.

This "forecast" is pure conjecture by a layman and should not be used by anyone for anything. :)
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Re:

#2438 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:40 am

gatorcane wrote:If you look back at climatology and search all CAT 1 (what Gustav is right now) hurricanes in August that have passed within 65 nautical miles of where Gustav is currently located, you'll be surprised. There have been only 3:

Two hit Florida
1 hit Texas

Now if you expand the search and look at all storms and hurricanes (not just CAT 1) for the query above, you will find:

East of Florida: 1
South Florida: 3
Panhandle of Florida: 2
Yucatan Pen.: 4
Western GOM (west of south central LA): 6

Climatology suggests Gustav would either stay in the Eastern GOM or Florida or head much more west toward the Yucatan or far Western GOM....

Climatology does not favor the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Note: Climatology is just a reference and no forecast should be based on climatology alone.


Now this is an excellent post. You can't fight climatology and I believe it's working in the central GOM's favor. Now Texas and FL well that's another thing. Anyway there is always a first time so let's just hope this thing is overestimated flop and no one is seriosuly affected by it.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#2439 Postby Noles2006 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:41 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Noles2006 wrote:It's weird... I get more sick to my stomach now when I see a Cat-3 pointed at New Orleans than I do when I see a Cat-5 pointed toward the Panhandle...


its been said over and over, 5 day tracks just don't verify, im not being a wise-a** when i say you want to be right on the line on a 5 day because there is a 300 mile error at 5 days, one of these times the nhc track will verify but so far they just don't so before everyone starts extrapolating out these runs take a step back and see what transpires, the atmosphere is fluid not stuck in time, in fact its already changed immensely since i started writing this..that being said, all interest from houston to tampa should be watching and be ready this weekend to act if required. I have been on the line so many times i feel like a tight rope walker and you know how many times I actually was directly hit by a system..not many.



You don't think I realize this? I've tracked tropical systems for almost 18 years now... I even studied meteorology for 3 semesters at FSU before switching majors...
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Re: Re:

#2440 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 26, 2008 8:42 am

Stormcenter wrote:
gatorcane wrote:If you look back at climatology and search all CAT 1 (what Gustav is right now) hurricanes in August that have passed within 65 nautical miles of where Gustav is currently located, you'll be surprised. There have been only 3:

Two hit Florida
1 hit Texas

Now if you expand the search and look at all storms and hurricanes (not just CAT 1) for the query above, you will find:

East of Florida: 1
South Florida: 3
Panhandle of Florida: 2
Yucatan Pen.: 4
Western GOM (west of south central LA): 6

Climatology suggests Gustav would either stay in the Eastern GOM or Florida or head much more west toward the Yucatan or far Western GOM....

Climatology does not favor the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.

Note: Climatology is just a reference and no forecast should be based on climatology alone.


Now this is an excellent post. You can't fight climatology and I believe it's working in the central GOM's favor. Now Texas and FL well that's another thing. Anyway there is always a first time so let's just hope this thing is overestimated flop and no one is seriosuly affected by it.


the atmosphere does not care one bit about climo!

It only cares about what is happening right now
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