ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

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x-y-no
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Re: Re:

#841 Postby x-y-no » Tue Aug 26, 2008 1:25 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:I cant help but notice the Huge timing difference between the HWRF and GFDL.the HWRF being WAY slower..



It makes you wonder if the GDFL is being influenced by a trough of some sort
and is accelerating. Who knows?


Im thinking it is picking up what X-Y-No was discussing and it may have a little GFS in it..


GFDL and HWRF are about the same speed for the first 48 hours. Only after that is GFDL faster. And on top of that, HWRF is north of GFDL.

My inclination is slower than both for the first 48 hours, with a track no further north and possibly south of GFDL.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean - Model Runs

#842 Postby HurryKane » Tue Aug 26, 2008 1:27 pm

MGC wrote:I've been out and about all day. Earlier I got a call from my sister-in-law whom works for the Navy out at Stennis Space Center. The Navy has a Cray super computer where some of the model runs are done. She knows plenty of the Navy mets. Anyway, she told me that her Navy friends told her that 4 reliable models (didn't say which ones) had Gus as a Cat-5 off the mouth of the Mississippi. Now I know the models will change many times over the next few days. But Gus is causing some concern here......MGC



Only IBMs and Linux right now (or maybe the use of another agency's system), and Gustav has delayed the delivery of the Cray ;)
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean - Model Runs

#843 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2008 1:34 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 261825
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1825 UTC TUE AUG 26 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV (AL072008) 20080826 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080826 1800 080827 0600 080827 1800 080828 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 72.8W 18.9N 74.1W 19.5N 75.3W 19.5N 76.7W
BAMD 18.2N 72.8W 18.5N 74.1W 18.7N 75.5W 18.7N 76.9W
BAMM 18.2N 72.8W 18.8N 74.0W 19.2N 75.3W 19.4N 76.6W
LBAR 18.2N 72.8W 18.9N 73.9W 19.4N 75.1W 19.5N 76.5W
SHIP 70KTS 71KTS 73KTS 77KTS
DSHP 70KTS 77KTS 79KTS 83KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080828 1800 080829 1800 080830 1800 080831 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.0N 78.3W 21.1N 81.7W 22.7N 85.6W 24.2N 88.7W
BAMD 18.7N 78.5W 19.4N 81.7W 20.9N 85.0W 22.5N 87.8W
BAMM 19.5N 78.1W 20.4N 81.6W 22.0N 85.2W 23.6N 87.8W
LBAR 19.3N 77.9W 19.5N 81.5W 20.2N 85.7W 21.5N 89.1W
SHIP 81KTS 85KTS 87KTS 83KTS
DSHP 87KTS 91KTS 92KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.2N LONCUR = 72.8W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 71.7W DIRM12 = 324DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 70.5W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 992MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM


Image
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Re: Re:

#844 Postby fci » Tue Aug 26, 2008 1:37 pm

haml8 wrote:So, Gustav is a Democrat!? Does this mean that he will have a hard time getting organized and will self destruct before he hits the coast? :cheesy:


Spit, cough.. coke through nose.... that was FUNNY!!![/quote]

Or is he NOT a Democrat and choosing which dictator to unilaterally overthrow and how to line Haliburton's pockets at the same time??

(I know off topic and my last and only comment like this) :D
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#845 Postby dwg71 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 1:39 pm

there goes any model consensous :roll: Nogaps has PCB, FL - others have it just about everywhere...
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean - Model Runs

#846 Postby fci » Tue Aug 26, 2008 1:40 pm

haml8 wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:Image


Is it just me or does that cone get bigger and bigger???


Margin of error grows so the cone grows accordingly
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean - Model Runs

#847 Postby mutley » Tue Aug 26, 2008 1:48 pm

fci wrote:
haml8 wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:Image


Is it just me or does that cone get bigger and bigger???


Margin of error grows so the cone grows accordingly

Sorry for this dumb question, but what determines the margin of error?
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean - Model Runs

#848 Postby Sabanic » Tue Aug 26, 2008 1:51 pm

That cone means that for now we don't have a clue
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Re:

#849 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 26, 2008 1:53 pm

dwg71 wrote:there goes any model consensous :roll: Nogaps has PCB, FL - others have it just about everywhere...


NOGAPS was wayyy off the past day and only aligned with the other models overnight so I wouldn't put too much stock into it just yet. Seems to be pretty good consensus until the central gulf which is to be expected.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean - Model Runs

#850 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 26, 2008 1:54 pm

yeah Accuweather...got to love their cone.... :lol:
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean - Model Runs

#851 Postby vaffie » Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:02 pm

ROCK wrote:yeah Accuweather...got to love their cone.... :lol:


It's more like a splash than a cone. :)
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean - Model Runs

#852 Postby MWatkins » Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:03 pm

The new Euro has just rolled out...a little further north into Texas than the previous run after taking the center over the Yucatan.

So a slight northward shift...but with a huge slow down as it approaches the coast.

Only problems with the Euro are:

1. It's probably too weak with Gustav at t+72

2. There's a big break in the ridge at t+72 at 500MB...but it does not have Gustav feeling that weakness

FWIW...the Euro has a GIANT hurricane approaching the greater Antillies late in the period...not even going to start looking at that yet.

MW
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean - Model Runs

#853 Postby vaffie » Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:04 pm

MWatkins wrote:The new Euro has just rolled out...a little further north into Texas than the previous run after taking the center over the Yucatan.
Please provide link
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean - Model Runs

#854 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:08 pm

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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean - Model Runs

#855 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:09 pm

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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean - Model Runs

#856 Postby vaffie » Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:12 pm

It looks like some of the disparity between model runs is converging on the NHC's path. WRF and GFDL model tracks have moved significantly westward, UKMET and European have moved significantly eastward. The NOGAPS is still bizarrely northerly, the GFS still doesn't have the resolution to see it. This is definitely the most consensus we've seen for Gustav so far. A track towards Texas/Louisiana looks very likely at this point, but that may well change.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean - Model Runs

#857 Postby marcus B » Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:20 pm

Boy, things have changed since yesterday. hopefully the models will keep moving south into Mexico.
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#858 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:21 pm

The ECM is a decent shirt northwards as is the UKMO, meanwhile the GFDL does seem to be slowing adjusting itself westward, does seem to be slowly suggesting the biggest threat is the west gulf...

Also that is a beast of a system in the Atlantic...just like a certain H system...
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#859 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:23 pm

If you guys MUST insist on worrying about models...at least remember the models are seeing a definite weakness in the ridging when Gustav is entering the Gulf....

If that holds true...this IS a U.S. Landfall. You also must remember if the weakness is more prominent then the models are currently seeing considering how strong Gustav will be, this storm can definitely turn off and still hit the Panhandle of Florida.


Until I see a single model that doesn't show a weakness in Ridging...i'm seeing maybe a 5% as far as S. Texas/Mexico.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean - Model Runs

#860 Postby Portastorm » Tue Aug 26, 2008 2:30 pm



Where is Ed? Bring me Ed Mahmoud right now! He told me for us in Texas it was "season over."

Ed, the 12z Euro says: "I spit on Ed Mahmoud." :lol:
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