ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[gatorcane]

NHC appears to have removed the forecast points on the floater, I just checked 5 minutes ago. Track change?

[lamsalfl]

:uarrow:

NHC appears to have removed the forecast points on the floater, I just checked 5 minutes ago. Track change?

Probably just an error.

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

DR seems to be having a decent effect on Gus. Hopefully some substantial weakening could occur. Cloud tops are definately warming. I dont think there has been any great direction change yet, optical illusion with dying convection.

[KWT]

Deltadog, yeah its right in the middle of the two features though the high is so close to the west that I think a gradual westerly bend just like the models suggest is going to happen.

I don't see no westerly track but I do see WNW, best use the high resoultion given the tiny eye that is now cloud covered again.

[Blown Away]

There seems to be a nice ULL to his NE...Looks like there is some kind of squeeze play going on here. He is stuck inbtween these features. The ridge axis is just to his NW....before then dosn't look like he will change directions.

Is this something unexpected? I thought Gus was supposed to move little for the next day or so

[wxman57]

I'm measuring a 4hr motion toward 290 degrees at 9 kts.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It went a little more northward then I was expecting. In fact if the models are right and it does turn toward the west over the next 6 hours, then it will go right through that strip of mountains. Then I would not expect it to make it back over water as a hurricane. Once back over water, then I would expect it to slowly reform its innercore. After that it all has to do, does it follow the models and head more west, or does it follow what it has done and go right into Cuba for 3 days. We will find out. Which is still possible but not as likely.

[KWT]

The thing to note though Dwg71 is that sat just doesn't have the resolution to catch the inner core at all well. Its certainly weakening, maybe even pretty quickly as the eye is now gone, probably borderline cat-1 now but that IR won't catch such a small inner core as Gustav has at all well.

[GeneratorPower]

I'm measuring a 4hr motion toward 290 degrees at 9 kts.

Have your thoughts changed much from this morning in regards to track?

[Comanche]

Question, will the size of Gus greatly expand once away from land features and over open waters, or will it likely stay a compact system?

[srainhoutx]

I'm measuring a 4hr motion toward 290 degrees at 9 kts.

Thanks wxman57 for varifying that.

[Ivanhater]

Im feeling better about this staying west of me for now

[Portastorm]

Question, will the size of Gus greatly expand once away from land features and over open waters, or will it likely stay a compact system?

Good question Comanche and one that I have asked several times with no answer. Maybe we should pose to Derek in the questions forum?

[KWT]

I'm measuring a 4hr motion toward 290 degrees at 9 kts.

Well thats a little more westerly than I thought but its clearly now moving WNW now I agree. Such motion would probably keep Gustav on land for a little longer as well and induce more weakening, though to what extent is a big question.

Also hope that the damage in Haiti isn't too extreme now, hopefully won't be any bad mudslides with this one but I've got my doubts given Fay went close to this region as well...

[TCmet]

Have the levees been rebuilt since Katrina?? I saw a documentary
they are building a stronger levee???

There is nothing they can do with a Cat 4 or 5.

rain is the issue with levees not wind folks

rain and surge. mostly surge.

[Derek Ortt]

unfortunately a couple of bursts have just went up in the eyewall over Haiti

likely torrential rain and severe mudslides occurring there

[KWT]

Portastorm, well depends how well the inner core is defined when it leaves land I'd guess but wouldn't thought land would make a huge difference for a short time period anyway but I don't know?

[vbhoutex]

Some FYI on the Hatian mountains from google:

Landforms Haiti, occupying the western third of the island of Hispaniola, consists of two peninsulas, separated by the Gonave Gulf.

It's a rugged, mountainous land, dominated by three main massifs (mountain ranges). The highest point is Pic La Stelle in the Massif De La Selle. It stands at 8,793 ft. (2,680 m).

Lake Azuei and Lake of Miragoane are the only significant lakes. There are a few dozen small rivers, with the Artibonite the only major one.

That particular mountain, (bolded) is in the far SE corner of Haiti to the East of landfall by probably about 75-100 miles. The other area of mountains most likely to affect Gustav is on the Western tip of the Southern peninsula, but doesn't have any peaks that high. The third range mentioned above is in far NE Haiti to the East of Cape-Haitin(sp?). Gustav has some work to do getting past these mountains, but I'm not sure how really disrupted he is going to be since he is still so small. Maybe my thinking is wrong on this. but with the core to the West of the worst mountains, I think the disruption will be less than some are anticipating/wanting, unfortunately. I just hope Gustav doesn't lumber across Haiti and drop massive amounts of rain. Those people need a break.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Now 50 people that are being reported dead because of Fay is a bad and a sad thing, but why having had Fay move right through DR/Hati for over a day caused a "low" for Hati/DR number of deaths, but your expecting this to be much more deadly. I understand that the ground is now moist and ready to come down, but what makes this storm more deadly then Fay besides that?

[attallaman]

OT, is it time to update the S2K homepage?