ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

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Sabanic
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#1061 Postby Sabanic » Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:34 am

stormchazer wrote:I know everyone is nervous with a potentially strong storm in the GoM but we have all said hundreds of times that the models are terrible on intensity forecast. Let's wait to see what kind of system we have North of Cuba then we can all go on Xanax.

Maybe it is hope on my part as my sister lives in Gulfport, MS, but the models are sliding around right now with a high error potential, so lets not get caught up in doomsday scenarios for NO or Galveston for that matter. Let's settle down and see how things develop.


Once again calm minds prevail. You're so right. We all have a long ways to go
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#1062 Postby Emmett_Brown » Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:43 am

Timing will be key today. A tardy Gustav will mean the models are going to change, since the timing of interaction with global features will be different. Expect more model shifts if Gustav lingers to long near Haiti today.
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Re: ATL:Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti-Model Runs

#1063 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 27, 2008 5:59 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:yea well hook or not...middle tx coast now closer to la....just have the feeling in the pit of my gut about Louisiana.



You think it may be something you ate. :)
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Re: ATL:Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti-Model Runs

#1064 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:22 am

Stormcenter wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:yea well hook or not...middle tx coast now closer to la....just have the feeling in the pit of my gut about Louisiana.



You think it may be something you ate. :)



Latest conjecture from the latest model runs seem to poinat for an extrapolated landfall anywhere from Houston/Galveston to the Mobile, AL area...with the LA coast certainly looking the most likely at this point. Next 24-48 hours should raise the confidence greatly.
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#1065 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:24 am

The NHC only sees Gustav just barely off the coast by midday today...and doesn't let it regain hurricane status until tomorrow morning.

Looking on track on me?
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL:Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti-Model Runs

#1066 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:30 am

Not perfect agreement yet, but I'd be nervous if I lived in South Louisiana...

Image
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Re: ATL:Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti-Model Runs

#1067 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:35 am

06z GFDL shifts to the right,now makes landfall in NEW ORLEANS.

WHXX04 KWBC 271131
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV 07L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.6 73.3 305./ 4.1
6 18.9 74.2 287./ 8.4
12 19.0 74.8 279./ 5.9
18 19.0 75.3 277./ 4.7
24 18.8 76.1 253./ 7.6
30 19.0 76.9 283./ 8.2
36 19.0 77.9 268./ 9.2
42 18.9 78.7 267./ 7.6
48 18.9 79.6 267./ 8.1
54 19.1 80.4 286./ 8.9
60 19.5 81.2 297./ 7.7
66 20.1 81.9 307./ 9.1
72 20.9 82.8 312./11.4
78 21.8 83.9 312./13.7
84 22.8 84.9 313./14.1
90 23.8 85.9 315./13.7
96 24.7 87.0 312./13.2
102 25.9 87.9 320./14.1
108 27.1 88.8 324./14.8
114 28.3 89.8 320./14.3
120 29.4 90.7 319./13.7
126 30.5 91.5 326./13.2

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Re: Tropical Storm Gustavi-Model Runs=06z GFDL shifts right

#1068 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:38 am

IMO, the longer Gus takes to get moving the more R the models will shift.
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs=06z GFDL shifts right

#1069 Postby Sabanic » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:39 am

Anywhere from TX/LA line to Western FL/Panhandle IMHO at the present time
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustavi-Model Runs=06z GFDL shifts right

#1070 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:54 am

Blown_away wrote:IMO, the longer Gus takes to get moving the more R the models will shift.


I do agree with that statement. I think we'll keep seeing right shifts.
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustavi-Model Runs=06z GFDL shifts right

#1071 Postby mutley » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:58 am

gatorcane wrote:
Blown_away wrote:IMO, the longer Gus takes to get moving the more R the models will shift.


I do agree with that statement. I think we'll keep seeing right shifts.

Same here. I'm guessing the track will shift east in small amounts for the next few days.
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#1072 Postby Meso » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:59 am

Image
06 GFDL
Maxes out at 145kt

Image
06 HWRF
Maxes out at 132kt
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs=06z GFDL shifts right

#1073 Postby boca » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:01 am

The steering fow might be weak but another poster had the radar site up which shows a WNW movement.their is nothing upstream to break down the upper ridge as of right now.
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Re:

#1074 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:18 am

Meso wrote:Image
06 GFDL
Maxes out at 145kt

Image
06 HWRF
Maxes out at 132kt


06 GFDL to New Orleans
06 HWRF to Mobile

Still very ominous runs...12 z's will be interesting
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1075 Postby gulfcoastdave » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:23 am

well , as the storm approaches from the gulf....if the storm is closer to the LA/TX area there will not much of a right turn(IMHO)

However , if the storm is closer to middle LA , watch for a more right trun. This has been seen with past storms. This is just my personal thoughts

we all will have a better idea friday morning.
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1076 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:25 am

Ok now Im upset..I fully expected for the models to have kept going west to Texas...sorry to my friends in Texas..oh well, im sure they wil shift again
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Re: ATL:Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti-Model Runs

#1077 Postby Nederlander » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:29 am

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:I also think that the modeling for 95L can provide us insight on Gustav, even though it appears that Gustav is sent into NOLA on the latest Euro when initializing 95L. Those 95L model runs are starting to buy into the idea that the big ridge over Florida is gone, allowing 95L to just go right into eastern Florida. Euro shows it as quite a powerful storm actually.

The point is...how can 95L do that if such a strong ridge is in place? That argues for either a shift in the ridge or a disintegration. -which plays heavily into what Gustav can/will actually do.



Well first off, the ridge isnt that far east to be affecting 95L yet. Secondly, that ridge is forecast by some mets to build in and shift NW or WNW over the S.E. United States which could allow for 95L to continue on its way...
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#1078 Postby jasons2k » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:29 am

GFDL still too fast.

Also, that trough over Texas referenced in last night's discussion hoping to shear Gustav this weekend and keep the storm in check, might not be there.
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#1079 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:32 am

I guess we should wait for trends... Originally it was trending West, now back East. Will there be another trend before landfall?
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1080 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 27, 2008 7:43 am

773
WHXX01 KWBC 271236
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1236 UTC WED AUG 27 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV (AL072008) 20080827 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080827 1200 080828 0000 080828 1200 080829 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.8N 73.7W 19.2N 74.9W 19.5N 76.5W 20.0N 78.1W
BAMD 18.8N 73.7W 18.8N 74.8W 18.7N 76.1W 18.8N 77.6W
BAMM 18.8N 73.7W 19.1N 74.8W 19.3N 76.1W 19.6N 77.7W
LBAR 18.8N 73.7W 19.0N 74.4W 19.1N 75.3W 19.3N 76.5W
SHIP 50KTS 46KTS 46KTS 51KTS
DSHP 50KTS 46KTS 46KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080829 1200 080830 1200 080831 1200 080901 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 80.1W 22.1N 84.3W 23.7N 88.4W 25.0N 91.7W
BAMD 19.1N 79.2W 20.7N 82.9W 22.9N 86.5W 24.9N 89.4W
BAMM 20.0N 79.5W 21.7N 83.3W 23.8N 86.9W 25.4N 89.8W
LBAR 19.8N 77.8W 21.4N 81.1W 23.7N 84.4W 25.1N 86.7W
SHIP 57KTS 67KTS 74KTS 76KTS
DSHP 57KTS 67KTS 73KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 73.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 73.1W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 17.6N LONM24 = 72.1W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$
NNNN

Image
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